5-4 Indiana Dem gerrymander

So since the Republicans released a “clean” gerrymander, I wanted to see what Dems could do if they were at the wheel again. My gerrymander isn’t clean in the sense of compact districts but it does minimize county-splitting. Sadly this is fantasy but I thought it’d be fun anyway to link together the places in Indiana that vote Dem.

One note: I only bothered to put Obama guesstimates for the districts that are supposed to be Democratic. The other ones are basically just Republican votesinks so it’s probably safe to assume they’re not competitive.

IN-01 Incumbent: Pete Visclosky, D-Merrillville

Little change here. Eats up the rest of Porter County as well as part of White County for population reasons. Only slightly less Dem, most likely.

Obama guesstimate: ~61%

IN-02 Incumbent: Joe Donnelly, D-Granger

Not much change. It’s probably unavoidable that this one gets more Republican due to population loss. Even so it should be mostly the same. Might have voted Donnelly out in 2010 but a better shot for him than what the Republicans have planned.

Obama guesstimate: ~53%

IN-03 Incumbent: Marlin Stutzman, R-Howe

Not much change, Safe R.

IN-04 OPEN

Todd Rokita is drawn out of this district and it is entirely reconfigured to become much more Democratic. It takes in a smorgasbord of Democratic cities like Muncie, Anderson, West Lafayette, and Terre Haute to create a district with a solid Democratic base.

Obama guesstimate: 53-54%

IN-05 Incumbent: Todd Rokita, R-Indianapolis?

Republican vote sink in the Indy suburbs. The Indiana version of the Circle of Ignorance. I’m not sure if Rokita lives here or the 7th, but he’ll have no trouble here, at least not in the general. Safe R.

IN-06 OPEN

Republican vote sink that starts in Fort Wayne and wraps around to the Indy suburbs. Hey, I told you this was a gerrymander. Safe R.

IN-07 Incumbent: Andre Carson, D-Indianapolis; Dan Burton, R-Indianapolis; Todd Rokita, R-Indianapolis?

Expands slightly. Should still be safe D. I’m pretty sure Burton lives here and Rokita might too. This district is far too Dem for them so they should duke it out in the 5th, or one can move to the 6th. (Perhaps Burton should just retire; he’s probably dead in the primary against a second-tier candidate, let alone a sitting Congressman.)

Obama guesstimate: ~68%

IN-08 OPEN

I guess I could have swapped the 8th and 9th, but whatever. Anyway, this is another gerrymandered vote sink winding its way from the Indy burbs to the Ohio River, and is Safe R.

IN-09 Incumbent: Larry Bucshon, R-Newburgh; Todd Young, R-Bloomington

Both Bucshon and Young live here, but neither will want to stick around. They’re both too conservative to win a district that contains Evansville and Bloomington, so they might as well run to the 8th (where Young has the advantage because some of it is territory he represents now). Even though this district only narrowly vote for Obama, some of its McCain-voting counties might be loyal to a conservadem. Both Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill live here, so this might be an interesting Dem primary.

Obama guesstimate: 50% (narrow win)