Racial Composition Change by CD

79 thoughts on “Racial Composition Change by CD”

1. I don’t mean to impugn your analysis, but do increases of 5 percent–at absolute most, over ten years–really constitute “invasions”?  How much does something like that change a district’s politics?  GA-05 went from 34% white to 36% white, was that really the kind of tipping point that could nearly swing a mayor’s race?

   Thanks for crunching the numbers, though–this is fascinating stuff.

   1. Maybe what I should have said is “young Hispanic conservatives”. I don’t know what the data is but if both of your parents are reliable Democrats I think that the chances of you becoming a hardcore Republican are a lot less then you becoming a reliable Democrat or left-leaning independent. My overall point is that as the Hispanic population grows (it is becoming a reliably Democratic vote when they do vote) I don’t see it becoming a lot more conservative, especially with the Mexican-American vote. People like Kevin McCarthy in his district as configured will increasingly have to hope that the Latino vote share doesn’t drastically increase or he is in trouble. I can’t see it dipping below the 60-65% range anytime soon especially given the GOP’s harsh rhetoric.  

2. that I have been thinking about for a while.  Could there be a radical change in the composition of the members of the house delegation from Houston?

   Sheila Jackson-Lee’s district, and central houston in general, is less-and-less dominated by large, centrally located clusters of AA neighborhoods.  Plus, Al Green’s district is minority-majority, but with a 36% AA plurarity.  Yes, you see that correctly, a 36% AA plurality.

   Would the GOP in the texas state house possibly try to combine these two dems into one district, have TX-8 (far north houston suburbs, sapphire red) swing into Greenspoint (dem suburb represented by SJL) and have Ron Paul swing up into parts of Missouri City (Al Green represents this other dem suburb) and finally have TX-7 (Culberson) swing into acres homes/W. 34th street (also represented by SJL) to neuter these dems.  These three districts would change from something like R+15 to R+10 (TX-7 might go to R+5), nothing special, but would pit Al Green and SJL in a new mega-dem district.

   This could be how, technically, the GOP could make the new districts 4-0, by combining even more dems into deep-blue seats in Houston, while still creating one or two new VRA districts in Dallas and the Valley.  You could try to combine canseco and gonzales into one district from central San. An. throughout the far-west valley, but you would put Lamar Smith and whatever new TX-thirtywhatever district into R+3/4 territory, something a Dem could definitely win.

3. Archie Bunker was NOT supposed to be from Bayside.  He was supposed to be from the Astoria/Sunnyside area of western Queens — a more lower middle class area.  

4. sorry if this is a stupid question, but all of these districts have stayed the same over the years, no? If the lines changed slightly in some of these areas, wouldn’t that account for the differences?

   What’s really going to be interesting is to see how the population growth adjusts as these people become second generation and third generation residents. If non-whites keep reproducing at the same rate as they are now reproducing and new immigration keeps up, we’ve only seen the beginning of an explosion in absolute numbers.  

5. those two S Fla districts became less blue as they filled up with Hispanics. Is this due more to the new Hispanics being mostly conservative Cubans, or to the whites reacting better to Lieberman than to Obama?

6. but the critical political question over the next three decades will be whether second and third generation Hispanics become more GOP-friendly (because of rising incomes and/or assimilation) like the Irish, Germans and Italians before them or whether the Hispanic population remains strongly pro-Dem in partisan preference — like African-Americans and Jews.  

   1. You’re right. The Southern white vote in Texas probably isn’t maxed out at around 60%. The problem is that Southern whites aren’t a growing group. The growth in the white population has alot to do with inmigration from places, like California, who have completely different voting habits.

   2. Counties in rural Texas that used to vote Dem are already starting to vote 90-10 Republican or so, they’re going to run into a wall pretty soon. Texas has Austin, and I’m guessing whites in places like Dallas and Houston have enough liberals that they’ll never start voting 90-10, maybe 70-30 at worst. I’m no Texas expert but in a state with so many cities, it’s hard to imagine that the white vote would resemble Mississippi or Alabama more than South Carolina or Georgia.

7. PPP poll shows the US souring on the GOP badly.  Let’s hope this isn’t some outlier.
   
   http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

8. For mid-decade redistricting in Texas and Georgia?  I only had time to skim, so forgive me if I missed this.

9. IL-3 is turning into one on its own.

10. Also, can a CA expert tell me what’s up with CA-41? Its demographic changes seem to match the rest of the Inland Empire, but its partisan changes most certainly do not.

11. As stated elsewhere up thread, I wanted to expand on this just a bit. There are 3 California Republicans that have a lot of Hispanics in their district and they are growing at an incredibly fast rate. For example, Kevin McCarthy is in leadership and went from 21% to 32% Hispanic in just 10 years. While its hard to say what his district will turn out can he continue to lead his party that is so anti-immigration and frankly borders on xenophobic in a district where 40% of the population is Hispanic as it may happen in the not too distant future? While now they clearly don’t vote as high as the whites in his district who I assume are very conservative but as those numbers grow it is going to be tougher for people like him especially with him being in leadership. If the Hispanic vote share gets to 30% of the district, which may happen in the not-too distant future and they are 70% Democratic which is plausible in California all the Democrat would need is 42% of the white vote for a majority.

    While that is an oversimplified example many districts are becoming much less white to the point that only 40% of the white vote may be needed for victory for the Democrat. Now we just need to work on turning them out!!

    Second up-thread others have wondered what future generations of Hispanics will vote. I can speak only for myself but I am first generation (Mexican) and I have 7 first cousins that are of voting age. 5 of us are solid democrats and 2 of us are apathetic. If future numbers continue in that direction it is very, very bad news for the GOP. Over simplified example I know but I rarely see young conservatives whose parents were not conservatives as well. My kids better not turn out that way!!!

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