SSP Daily Digest: 4/5


AZ-Sen: Rep. Jeff Flake (R) will apparently announce a haul of more than $1 million in Q1.

OH-Sen: A spokesman for Treasurer Josh Mandel says he’ll file paperwork with the FEC “very shortly,” but it’s not clear from the writeup whether this means an exploratory committee (what I’m guessing) or if it’s the real thing. Also of note: Rep. Pat Tiberi (R), whose name first came up as a possible candidate less than a week ago, quashed any notion that he might run against Sherrod Brown last Friday.

VA-Sen: If you want to believe CNN’s sources, Tim Kaine will announce a Senate bid in the next two weeks.

WA-Sen, WA-10: Sue Rahr, the conservative King County Sheriff who inherited the job from now-Rep. Dave Reichert, said through a spokesman that she has no intention of running against Sen. Maria Cantwell – a rumor that seems to have gotten shot down before we’d ever heard of it here at SSP. However, a political consultant of Rahr’s thinks the sheriff (who supposedly has crossover appeal) could run in Washington’s new 10th CD, if a district emerges out of Reichert’s 8th centered in the area north of I-90.


ME-Gov: Will Paul LePage be the next Rick Scott? Like Florida’s governor, Republican members of LePage’s own legislature are starting to turn on him; eight state senators penned an op-ed declaring : “‘Government by disrespect’ should have no place in Augusta, and when it happens, we should all reject it.”

MO-Gov: I think it’s going to get worse before it gets better for Republican LG Peter Kinder. Trying to push back against revelations that he spend taxpayer money to spend two months a year in St. Louis luxury hotels to attend baseball games, society balls, and teabagger conclaves since 2006, Kinder claimed that his office had been reviewed by two different state auditors, both of them Democrats: Susan Montee and Claire McCaskill (yes, her). The problem? Montee’s audit faulted Kinder for “numerous mathematical errors and inconsistencies” regarding employee pay, and McCaskill’s found that Kinder used a state-owned care for personal use. I’m sensing a theme here.

WA-Gov: Could Christine Gregoire’s claim to be undecided about seeking a third term really just be a way to ward off lame-duck syndrome? That’s Jim Brunner’s guess. The Seattle Times reporter points out that campaign finance filings show the Democrat had just $44K on hand at the end of February. At the comparable reporting deadline during the prior election cycle, she had $1.2 million in the bank. Meanwhile, other likely candidates are flush: Republican AG Rob McKenna has raised $800K and has $400K on hand, while Rep. Jay Inslee (D) had $1.2 million in his congressional account at the end of last year. The piece also notes that another possible Dem candidate, state Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, has recently discussed a potential run for Lt. Gov. instead. (She’d have to primary Brad Owen, who has been in office since 1997, or push him into retirement.)


FL-22: Whoa, I was definitely wrong to dismiss “no not that” Patrick Murphy as a Some Dude. One article described him as a 28-year-old accountant, but he’s got family money – and, evidently, good connections. Murphy says he raised a majorly impressive $350K in less than a month, and only $30K of that is his own money. Even fundraising machine Ron Klein raised “only” $153K in the comparable quarter in 2005 (before he was first elected).

NM-01: Terry Brunner, a former state director for the retiring Jeff Bingaman, had previously said he was thinking about running for his old boss’s seat, but now says he’s considering a run for the 1st CD instead.

NV-01: Jon Ralston thinks former 3rd CD Rep. Dina Titus will run for Shelley Berkley’s seat if the latter runs for Senate, but this is definitely a case of Schrödinger’s Seat.

OR-01: Former state Rep. Greg Macpherson is the first big-name Dem to say he’s considering a primary challenge to embattled Rep. David Wu. He wants to wait until the district lines become clear, saying he’ll only run if he lives in the district. (He doesn’t live there now, but I suppose he could move even if redistricting doesn’t help him, so I’m not sure how big an obstacle that is.) He also says he’s considering a primary challenge to state AG John Kroger, the man who beat him in the Dem primary for that office in 2008.

WI-07: Feeling the heat, Rep. Sean Duffy offered a half-assed non-apology, saying his “words were admittedly poorly chosen” when he whinged about getting paid only $174,000 a year as a member of Congress.

Other Races:

Wisconsin Sup. Ct.: Surprise, surprise: “Citizens for a Strong America,” the potemkin right-wing group responsible for several attack ads in the race (including one even PolitiFact rated “pants on fire”) turns out to be just a clone/offshoot of Americans for Prosperity, the Koch brothers’ arch-evil front group.

Special Elections: After a few weeks without any state lege races, Johnny Longtorso is back:

While everyone will be focused on the Wisconsin Supreme Court election (which is a phrase I never thought I’d type), there is one special occurring on Tuesday in South Carolina’s HD-64, though it’s in a safe Democratic seat. Democrat Kevin Johnson, the mayor of Manning, will face off against Republican Walter Sanders.

Also, a quick shout-out to Republican Mike “Pete” Huval, the newest member of the Louisiana House of Representatives from HD-46. He defeated another Republican (no Democrat ran) on Saturday for the seat vacated by now-State Sen. Fred Mills.


Maps: The National Journal has an interesting set of maps which focus on a theme that DCCyclone has been hitting in comments: Namely, because of population growth among minorities, the share of the white vote that Obama needs in 2012 is lower than it was in 2008, assuming minority support for Obama stays the same. In a very pessimistic scenario where his minority support falls 10%, Obama would only lose three states he otherwise won in 2008 (FL, IN & NC), assuming he keeps the same share of the white vote. (But note that that latter assumption is unnecessary: Even under the reduced minority support scenario, Obama’s white support could also drop considerably in many states and he’d still win.)

Votes: A new study (full paper here) says that Dems who votes “yes” on healthcare reform saw their reelection margins reduced from 6 to 8 points. Something about this study seems incomplete to me, though, but I can’t quite put my finger on it. I’ll be really curious to read your thoughts in comments.

VRA: This is interesting: Black lawmakers in Georgia have filed a lawsuit challenging to dissolve the charters of five very white cities in DeKalb and Fulton Counties. The plaintiffs argue that these cities, all formed between 2005 and 2008, were created to dilute minority voting power, and hence violate the VRA. Apparently, this is a novel application of the Voting Rights Act, so we’ll see how it unfolds.

Passings: Very sad news: Former Rep. John Adler, a longtime state Senator who served one term in NJ-03 before losing last year, passed away at the age of 51. Last month, Adler contracted an infection which led to heart disease from which he never recovered. His father also died young of heart disease, something Adler would mention on the campaign trail when describing his family’s struggles after his father’s death. As a state legislator, one of his signature accomplishments was a smoke-free air bill which banned smoking in many public places. He leaves behind a wife and four children.

In other news, former TN Gov. Ned McWherter also passed away yesterday. McWherter, who was 80, served two terms as governor in the late 80s and early 90s. One of the things McWherter is probably best known for is the creation TennCare, the state’s expanded Medicaid program. His son Mike ran an unsuccessful campaign for governor last year.

Redistricting Roundup:

Arkansas: Rob Moritz of the Arkansas News Bureau has a good rundown of what’s going on with Democrats’ controversial redistricting plan, dubbed the “Fayetteville Finger.” The plan has passed in the House but has stalled in the Senate, where a vote won’t come until Thursday at the earliest. At the end of the piece, Moritz details several different alternate proposals pending in the Senate.

Louisiana: A piece from Sunday’s Times-Picayune said that votes were possible on Monday in the House and Senate on congressional maps, but I’ve not yet seen any subsequent coverage.

Michigan: Aaron Blake’s redistricting series takes him to Michigan, where he has a good explanation of just how difficult it will be for the GOP to shore up its current situation.

Missouri: Check out this Google Maps version of the state House’s proposed new federal district lines.

New Jersey: Republicans started bitching and moaning about the state’s new map even before it was officially chosen, but so far, they haven’t said whether they’d challenge the map in court. Not really sure what grounds they’d have even if they wanted to give it a go.

Nevada: The LVRJ has a piece on the debate in Nevada over whether to create a majority-Hispanic district, or whether to keep Hispanic voters spread out to keep all districts more Dem or more competitive. Most Republicans obviously like the former idea, while Dems (including some Latino lawmakers) are understandably skeptical. Also, it looks like abgin must have trekked all the way from Basque Country to make a presentation at a public hearing in Vegas last weekend: The LVRJ says that “[s]everal interest groups presented proposed maps, including one that likely wouldn’t pass legal or political muster because it would create four new vertical congressional districts stretching from North to South.”

Texas: Ah, redistricting cat fud – it has a stench all its own. GOP Rep. Lamar Smith is apparently taking the non-insane view that Hispanic growth and the VRA require that two (well, at least two) of Texas’s four new districts be majority-minority, and he’s been working with Dem Rep. Henry Cuellar to create a compromise map. This has infuriated fellow Republican Rep. Joe Barton (aka Smokey Joe), who insists that at least three if not all four of the new seats be Republican-favored. And folks, the cat fud is real. Sayeth Politico:

Barton has harshly criticized Smith during Texas GOP delegation meetings, launching a profanity-laced tirade at Smith during one session early last month, and he’s privately tried to oust Smith as the lead Republican negotiator on redistricting.

Politico’s sources say that Smith is still favored among members of his own party, but that Gov. Rick Perry may be leaning toward Barton. Perry’s alleged plan is to skip DoJ pre-clearance and go directly to federal court, perhaps hoping for a friendly conservative panel (backstopped by an unquestionably conservative Supreme Court), so that could turn Barton’s dream into a reality… but I still think it’s a serious stretch. The piece also reports that proposed maps have been circulated among Republicans, but of course, no one’s sharing any copies.

289 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 4/5”

  1. I think Nevada should draw a Latino-majority seat, Texas should draw two new Latino-majority seats (good on you, Rep. Lamar Smith, and Rep. Joe “I Apologize” Barton can fuck right off already), and Louisiana should draw another black-majority seat (although it looks like they won’t unless Washington forces them to).

    I’m really hoping one of the five Supreme Court conservatives can be prevailed upon to support the Obama administration’s arguments on VRA application. Certainly Justice Sotomayor can be expected to be a strong advocate; I don’t suppose Justice Thomas will do one good thing and support the interests of African Americans, recognizing that not all of them are batshit insane like His Honor, but maybe Justice Kennedy can be persuaded.

    And on a slightly different note, I’d love for the Arkansas Senate to kill that daft House map. I’m not sure why Republicans are so upset about it, seeing as that it sets them up for 4-0 within a few cycles following present electoral trends.

  2. Macpherson? Ugh.

    I’d rather have David Wu. Seriously. Macpherson is a smug, mean-spirited rich guy who lost the 2008 primary for AG to Kroger in no small part because he went negative right out of the gate:

    What is it about this seat attracting all of the worst people in the state who just happen to self-identify as Democrats?

    (And don’t even get me started on Macpherson trying to primary Kroger just because he couldn’t handle running a civil campaign the last time. What a venal, venal man.)

  3. But I got accepted as a writer to Blue Indiana, and now I’m panicking because I have no idea what to write about. Any suggestions/advice?

  4. and noticed that they had Tim Bishop as one of the 13 Dems who lost because of his HCR vote.  Oops.  Guess there are really only 12.

  5. It addressed every single one of the thoughts I had about what could be problematic about it (effect in conservative vs. liberal districts, collinearity).

    Also, funny. They used SSP as a footnote, they got their partisan leanings of Congressional districts variable from here.

  6. Did it measure the impact of the bill on those congressfolks that changed their vote on the final bill?  

  7. OK, I feel compelled to do another post in my “interpreting SSPisms” series.

    Where exactly does “whinging” come from?  It looks like a mash-up between “whining” and “winging”, but I don’t get the connection.  I’ve seen it used here quite a few times.  Now that I get “cat fud” and “WATN?”, might as well add another one to the list!

    Of course, I like the fact that it appears in a post about Rep. Duffy continuing to put his foot in his mouth.  Here’s hoping for a single term!

  8. Anyone know of a good blog following today’s races?

    I read that Madison is expecting turnout of 50-60%, while statewide turnout is only suppose to be 20%

  9. they can go 4 for 4 on the new Texas districts. 3 for 4 is possible as long as you don’t shore up Farenthold or Canseco much, but 4 for 4 is impossible; the Democrats will have a new VRA seat in Dallas-Fort Worth and that is that.

    1. would keep it in play(and of course the actual repub nominee would have to be known before making any more assumptions);romney(in particular) would be a disaster for the repubs in GA(though he could conceivably win it in a squeker)

    2. You are saying that 26% isn’t enough. What was 2008 turnout? What is the percentage that he would need to win with 49.5~% of the vote?

    3. But I prefer to focus on that approval rating. 47-48 is quite remarkable all things considered. If the economy improves enough to allow him to be re-elected he may well improve enough with those voters to carry the state. It certainly looks better than MO or MT right now.

  10. I don’t want to come across like a pest, but am I the only one who is bothered by that language? I think there are much better ways to describe the conduct of NJ Republicans than using a phrase that has over the last ten years become the misogynist equivalent of “uppity.”

    I don’t know. I know David isn’t sexist at all. It’s just that my feminist siren goes off every time I hear that. Maybe I’m just being captious.


    In line with a presidential election.  Based on my back of the napkin calculations and presuming a 30% turnout elsewhere, a third of the total vote for the state will be coming out of Dane county.  Pretty good, I think…

    1. Ahead until the final precinct. We had gotten so used to winning it was a strange feeling. It truly was a sign of things to come.

  12. David: Can you start doing a separate post for the redistricting stuff? The comments threads tend to be alot longer and more complex when there are more redistricting items. I’m sure alot of us would prefer it.

  13. Try to do it in DRA. You might be able to get to around 49% population, but the VAP is more like 43%.

  14. Drawing a coalition district with a Hispanic population in the high 40s and an African American population in the mid to high teens. It would not automatically elect a Hispanic but a strong Hispanic candidate such as John Oceguera could win in it.  

  15. Democrats might as well find a non-crazy Republican to be the fifth member, since the court-drawn maps have been awful for them. They’ll probably be worse since that right-winger won the Supreme Court race a couple years ago.

  16. To me there is hope long-term in PA at the state leg level a la Texas at the federal level.  There is only so long before the population makes it quite impossible for the GOP to have these strongholds, but it will be another 20 years or so I’d guess.

    That being said, its pretty much impossible for things to get worse for Dems at the state leg level than they are right now.  This re-dstricting should at elast make some seats more competitive and dilute in a small way the over-influence Western PA has.

  17. I know nothing of Indiana, heck I was surprised to know Butler Univ is in Indiana.

    I assume its more Indiana focused and not federally focused, so i always liek the idea of identifyign the enxt wave of poltiical talent.  Small city mayors, stae reps/senators, new idea generators in public and non-profit sectors, ethical 21st century businessman, etc.

    Be the guy who years ago noticed a young Barack Obama in the Illinois State Senate :-) (and no I don’t know if such a guy existed)

  18. Proposed by the IN state sen Dems? I know they have no chance of being adopted, but they’ve been discussed here a bunch so that gives you some possible jumping-off points.

  19. The bigger blogs can do a good first glance piece, but state-level blogs have always seemed to me to be the go-to place for explaining why one area votes the way it does, or how campaign X went the way it did and what this says about the state.

  20. Personally I think Doug Masson does a solid job of tracking new bills going through the House and Senate at his site, but there’s always room for a more leftist perspective on that kind of thing.  

  21. That is my bane.

    I’ll amend that then: Nevada should make sure it preserves a minority-majority seat with strong Latino influence.

  22. VAP is a different story, although 45 H-34 W VAP sounds like a Hispanic-dominated Democratic primary electorate to me.

  23. His statement suggests some inside knowledge of coming maps. But I sorta doubt it.

    If Lake Oswego is put into OR-01, then Wu and Ds have bigger problems — both Chris Dudley and Allen Alley live in that city as well.

    Which means it’s highly unlikely to happen.  

  24. I’d never seen Campaign Expenditures as a significant variable before. That’s something worth looking into.

  25. I think the study was fine for what it was, but this is the problem: it’s a mistake to conclude as the authors suggested that the Dems would have kept those 32 seats if everyone had voted no on the four bills. If TARP and/or the stimulus had failed, the economy would have been worse (the bank bailout probably prevented a second Depression) which would have hurt the Dems, as the party in power always gets the blame when the economy stinks. Health care had no effect on the economy in 2010, but if it had failed the Dem base probably would have been demoralized by the failure to pass the party’s biggest bread-and-butter issue despite huge majorities in both houses. As a result Dem turnout would probably have been lower.

    I think it’s fair to conclude that Maffei (to take the last name on the list) might well have kept his seat if he had voted against health care. But it doesn’t follow that he, Bean, Ortiz, and Titus (to take the next three names) would have kept their seats if they had all voted against it    

  26. I think the thing which is nagging at me – though maybe they were right to do this – is that the authors ignore 2008 performance for these incumbents. Now, maybe that’s addressed by looking at all the other factors they consider, but in politics, how you did last time has a great deal of influence on how you’ll do next time. Some candidates are simply weaker than others.

  27. Campaign expenditures are positively correlated with loss. The more you spend, the more likely you are to lose.

    It isn’t that spending the money causes you to lose. It certainly doesn’t. It’s that you are more likely to spend money if there is a chance that you might lose (in order to reduce that chance). The more likely you are to lose, the more incentivized spending money is to reduce that likelihood.

    Candidates that are practically guaranteed election do not generally spend much money. The result is a positive correlation.

  28. 10% of registered voters in De Pere already have voted. Turnout estimate revised up to 27%.

    about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck

    RT @PGcharlesdavis: 10% of registered voters in Green Bay have already voted. Have you?

    about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck

    De Pere is in the blue part of the Green Bay metropolitan area.  The AFL-CIO retweeted it, so it must be a good sign, I think…

  29. I’m surprised that they show up as significant in multivariate regressions that take things like PVI and Obama2008 into account. After all, competitive districts are easily identified with that information, so ‘spending money’ doesn’t necessarily have to add something beyond that.

    The way they used the variable was (they were restricting their analysis to Dem incumbents) the ratio between Dem and GOP fundraising.

  30. of releasing the least interesting toplines first. I guess it’s a good way to keep everybody checking back, but the interesting data just gets staler and staler.  

  31.  The news will treat Trump as a serious candidate. He has a strong shot in the Republican primary. He has high recognition, he has good public speaking skills and he can appeal to the Wall Street and rich suburban crowd that Romney wanted to himself so he could win. Another advantage for Trump is that he never served in politics before so he has no previous policy record. He can create whatever platform he wants and not get criticized for flip flopping. As for coming out as a birther, I am not sure if that were a good choice. Trump needs to appeal to the Romney crowd if he wants to win and going to the right may make him lose some of those voters and not gain voters on the right because the voters on the right will probably go with the teabagger candidate. It is possible though if Trump became a teabagger candidate, he could still keep the Wall Street crowd due to his credidentials with money.  

  32. I don’t see concrete evidence that he’s hurting Romney among business-minded voters…because that’s just not who Trump is targeting here. He’s running a culture warrior “campaign,” the sort of candidacy that appeals more to the Bachmann/Cain crowd than to the sane Romney/Pawlenty supporters. He’s just hurting the fringe candidates here.

    Now, that’s not to say Trump should be entirely written-off if he enters. If he can muster a strong organization, he can surely play among the Iowa GOP, which would be especially receptive to this rhetoric. But, he could never, ever win a general election by running a birther campaign.

  33. I was readying a nationwide petition to banish NH from the union if it was Romeny 48%, Trump 21%.  


  34. considering how unelectable he is in the general election. It would be Christine O’Donnell all over again.

    I’ve been thinking he would never run, but I can see his ego getting piqued over a result like this.

  35. Trump entering would further fragment the primary.  the birther stuff hits the far right-wingers, the pro-biz stuff hits the CfG sect and the toupee hts the Hair Club for Men group.

    But seriously. if Romney is your sane* less-conservative alternative and Ginrich/Pamwlnety your sane* more-conservative alternative, Trump could conceivably siphon votes from both (but mainly Romney).  

    Seriously if this field truly materializes, primaries will be won with less than 20% of the vote.  Those Iowa caucuses will be evry interesting.

    *Note: the term “sane” is used loosely for lack of a better term.

  36. I suspect his base is mostly Perot voters from 1992 and/or 1996, and people who would have voted Perot had they been old enough: people who are vaguely conservative and pro-business but mostly cynical about politics and anti-insider. Trump also thinks that we can force one-sided trade deals down other countries’ throats, which was one of Perot’s big themes. I don’t think he’s getting the hardcore tea party crowd, which is really just the right wing of the Republican party.

    I think his main effect on the race will be to hurt Pawlenty and prevent him from getting much traction. Pawlenty will need a good chunk of those loosely attached voters who are supporting Trump now, but more importantly he’ll need a lot of free media to get his name rec up. Trump is going to suck up a lot of that oxygen.  

  37. I think a better description would be “not insane”. I’d also change Gingrich to Barbour.

    Insane doesn’t exactly work because they aren’t up to the level of Palin, Bachmann, and Gingrich (who is insane).

    Sane doesn’t work because they aren’t the pragmatic Republican deal-makers of years past.

  38. I would be interested to know what the numbers were like in 2008 with McCain and immigration reform. Obviously Romney is doubling down while McCain flip-flopped completely but I’m still curious.

  39. Especially in light of the defeats of Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, last year. There doesn’t seem to be a ‘next big thing’ among Hoosier Dems, at least not a well known one. Someone actively seeking out new and rising talents could do a lot of good.

    The two main guys running for the Democratic nomination for Mayor of South Bend (state rep Ryan Dvorak and former treasurer candidate Pete Buttigieg) both seem like good candidates, for instance, even if Buttigieg already has one bad statewide loss on his record. Sam Locke could be another interesting person to look at. And from what I’ve seen in Brian Howey’s recent articles, he seems pretty impressed with Kokomo mayor Greg Goodnight.  

  40. I’m pretty sure he was a Senator… or a Congressman, maybe. Something like that.  

  41. that Trump isn’t blown out of the water in a state like South Carolina, should it even come to that?

  42. And wherever that seat is drawn, Dina Titus will probably run in the other Dem seat. That’s why I have my doubts about Ralston saying Dina will run in NV-01. North Las Vegas and East Las Vegas are the most Latino parts of Clark County, and most of that area is currently in NV-01. Dina lives south of there, in The East Side.

  43. I hope they go for 3 out of 4 simply because that gives Democrats a better chance at picking up more seats than they otherwise would mid-decade.  

  44. that hispanic gains over the next few cycles will take marginal seats to our side(and once they are ours, the demographics point to long-term holds)

  45. I don’t affect Britishisms very often (or ever, really), but to me, the word “whinge” sounds like the next step up from mere whining.

  46. Hit post instead of bold. Here is the last paragraph:

    I think it’s fair to conclude that Maffei (to take the last name on the list) might well have kept his seat if he had voted against health care. But it doesn’t follow that he, Bean, Ortiz, and Titus (to take the next three names) would have kept their seats if they had all voted against it, because you can’t quantify the estimated effect on turnout in a hypothetical enivronment where health care failed.        

  47. MacPherson is a fake candidate and a poser. I doubt he knows much of anything about anything. In general.

    It could be argued from a “communities of interest” POV that Lake Oswego/West Linn has more in common with the Beaverton/Tigard/Tualatin strip that makes up the bulk of the district than, say, Yamhill County does. I tried drawing a Washington County/Columbia/Lake Oswego/West Linn/West Hills district in DRA that actually looked plausible. It can be done, and it might be a compromise given the weird split control of the OR Leg.

    At least a district that did that would get LO and West Linn out of Schrader’s district, and get Yamhill out of OR-01. Of course, Yamhill would probably then immediately go into OR-05, so it wouldn’t be much of a swap.  

  48. I’ve been bashing David Wu on this site since before it was cool, but the one guy who’s declared so far is the one OR Dem who would be worse.

    Especially with how respectably blue Washington County has become over the last 10-15 years, SOMEONE ought to step up. But I also get the feeling that too many good names are holding their fire to see what Wu does, which is what they’ve ALWAYS done. It’s like they’re expecting Wu to act reasonably, when…come on, it’s David Wu. His not acting reasonably is the entire POINT of people wanting him primaried! If he were reasonable, given the damage he’s done to the party, this would already be an open seat.

    Hopefully someone can be convinced to get in a little closer to 2012 if Wu continues being so completely unrepentant.

  49. Ned Ray McWherter was one of the most influential, and arguably successful, governors of Tennessee in modern times. He was a great and enjoyable guy to be around, as all the individuals in your article state. Politicians just aren’t typically made in his mold anymore, and that’s a shame. His family has my sympathies.


    Has information on certain polling places and how voting is going in each of them. Although Madison turnout looks high, turnout in Milwaukee does not look too high but turnout in Washington County (a suburban county) looks high as well as turnout in Sheboyganh. This is not the best sign for the Democrats but as long as the Madison turnout is high (and the reports say it is,) we should have a good shot.  

  51. I was so certain she would win, but after the discussion yesterday I’m slightly less certain. I still think she pulls it out.

  52. The National Review said there was a Prosser internal poll from last week that showed the race “essentially tied”, then all the right wing money came pouring in and the Review writers seemed to have conceded the race.

    Someone at dKos mentioned that they got a message testing poll from Kloppenberg a couple of weeks ago.

    Other than that, nothing… not only do we have no polling, but we have absolutely ZERO inside information to go on.  No leaks, no political insiders like Jon Ralston.  And since the parties are technically not involved, we are getting even less information.  It’s truly maddening!

  53.  A little worried since I saw reports that turnout in Washington County (suburban Milwaukee) was pretty high while Milwaukee City was not as high. There were around 100 voters in one precinct by 9:30 Central Time.  

  54. …so, we shouldn’t panic just yet…  Washington county is a big right wing county.  Sheboyganh is a swing county.  Both counties are much smaller than Dane.  Combined, they are only a third of the Madison vote, typically.

    These anecdotal reports aren’t very useful.  You can see the motivations behind the “reporters”.  I remember last year talking about huge lines in urban wards, only finding out at the end that urban turnout was way down overall.

  55.  There are lots of people on the ground collecting recall signatures for Alberta Darling and a few other Republicans. The updates from the polls did not specify whether voters were responsive although an elderly couple did yell at a signature collector.  

  56. Obama just isn’t getting the white vote he needs. Notice how he doesn’t even break 26% against Palin.  

  57. I’d say that Dems could have a good sporting chance at beating Deal in 2014 if trends continue.

  58. If Obama can improve among white Democrats – McCain won a fifth of them in ’08 – he should bring this to a tie. Then, get enough white Indies to reach the 30% mark among whites overall and he’ll prevail. Looking back at CNN’s exit poll on Clinton vs. Obama, just 5% of Democrats voted for Clinton because “the race of the candidate was important.” So, racism doesn’t seem to be lingering too heavily in the Georgia Democratic Party. Problem is, Georgia Indies are pretty conservative.

  59. Guess we can chuck Georgia into the Tossup category or maybe Lean Republican.

    Georgia a tossup and Trump running second in New Hampshire. The Republican Party’s dream is collapsing.

  60. The polling place at 93rd and Vernon and Milwaukee had constant traffic even though there were no lines. Also, people are complaining about recall signature people standing less than 100 ft from a polling place. The recall people can do that though because the State Senators being recalled are not on the ballot today.  

  61. coming from the right is pretty disgusting. I’ve seen a few diaries about groups holding signs on the side of the road and people stopping and shouting obscenities, giving the middle finger, and just be absolutely horrendous.  

  62. in my state(FL) an unpopular milquetoast like bill nelson(unpopular within the party)is virtually assured of re-election thanks to our felon governor(and of course JEB and connie mack standing down but even there i would say that nelson could possibly have beaten them thanks to rick scott’s unpopularity)who has absolutely made mainstream republicans here have intra-party fits like we haven’t seen in many years

  63. made GA competitive last go round and with the (so-called) ‘quality’ of repub candidates this cycle it is still in play(i think only a haley barbour or a mike huckabee would make GA a lock for the repubs in ’12)

  64. Depending on whether or not you want more competitive Nevada seats. If so, then there may be a real shot at a 4-0 Dem delegation come 2013. Obviously a court won’t be out to protect any incumbents or draw any seats for any particular politician, so here’s what may happen if Nevada redistricting is resolved by the courts:

    – Dems will get one safe seat in either NV-01 or the new NV-04 seat, and this district will likely be drawn as a VRA coalition seat with a strong Latino plurality. It may be hard for Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-North Las Vegas) to resist running here, as this is his best chance this decade to win an open Congressional seat (since Steven Horsford can’t draw the lines solely in his own favor).

    – This means either NV-01 or NV-04 (again, the non VRA protected of the two) will be at worst a Tossup seat that Dems can win with the right candidate. If it’s Summerlin based, NV Dems may want to give Larry Brown a call… After he calls more LGBTQ activists to apologize for the domestic partnership brouhaha.

    – With NV-03 potentially becoming more compact and East Side/Henderson dominant, Dina Titus would have a real chance of defeating Joe Heck in an epic 2012 rematch.

    – And with the NV GOP powerless to keep their stranglehold over NV-02, an A-List Dem like Treasurer Kate Marshall can have even more of a chance at winning, especially against Sharron Angle.

  65. in Georgia that can possibly be achieved. No doubt this will change in time as the electorate becomes less white, but right now Obama can’t win the state without getting something like a third of the white vote. And he’s just not there.  

  66. It’s entirely possible Obama could drown the state in money and still lose, but these numbers show he’s within striking distance. This is, of course, before he actually contests the state and works to change the minds of the already active voters, something he didn’t nearly that much of last time.

    Granted, nobody expects him to win the state by 12 points unless it’s a 1984-style landslide. But he’s already got more or less a quarter of the white vote, just as he did last time. It’s entirely possible for him to get up to 30 percent or so, especially if the nominee is someone toxic like Palin.

    I’d be curious to know what his numbers in Virginia or North Carolina were before he started contesting the state. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them right where they are now in Georgia.  

  67. but my main point is unless the repub nominee is either barbour or huckabee, then obama makes it a race in GA(though he would not be the favorite)especially if the mormon romney is the nominee(obama would gain white rural votes if that were the case and could conceivably pull out a squeker)

  68. Obama got 23% of the white vote and 98% of the black vote, which constituted 65% and 30%, respectively, of the voting population. In other words, almost the same as this PPP sample.  

  69. Let’s the slightly oversimplified racial breakdown that PPP gives us (it only has three categories), which is 65/29/6 give Obama 95 percent of the black vote and 65 percent of the other vote. If he were also to get 30 percent of the white vote, he’d have about 51 percent of the vote in a two man race.

    By the way, he received 98 percent of the black vote in the state in 2008, and they made up, according to CNN, 30 percent of the electorate.

  70. If Obama were up against 30% of the white vote, this would be a real race. But my view is that there just aren’t any more gettable white votes. There will be in a few years.  

  71. romney would actually help obama with the white rural vote in GA but andgarden is right as far as other candiates are concerned;huckabee and barbour would win GA in a walk but with any other candidate obama would remain ‘viable'(yet still the underdog)

  72. can make that statement until the campaign has tried to do what it did in North Carolina and Virginia. There was a little of that last time, although how much is unclear, but there was simply no comparable effort made in this state like there was in others. Turning out the already existing Democratic voters will get him a few more points. The rest can be made up by finding new ones or changing a few minds.  

  73. towards the pro-HCR position since most people who voted against HCR outperformed Obama in 2008.

  74. The district you drew for Heck doesn’t look like a 52% McCain seat to me… More like 52-54% Obama probably. You actually kept some of the most Democratic parts of Henderson there, along with Democratic leaning Silverado Ranch. Of course, this also means Oceguera lives outside the new VRA seat. Dina may be able to run against Heck again, though there would probably be pressure to find someone else who could run better in the Henderson foothills and Northwest valley.

    Horsford and Buckley would probably be happy with your map, though.

  75. and he remained ‘viable’ to the end; i would say that his chances this time around are not as good BUT the quality of the repub nominee remains an unknown factor; let’s face it, a nut like michelle bachmann is not going to win statewide in GA(i would also argue that newt gingrich would lose statewide in GA as well)but any other repub would be in the possible win column

  76. They’ve already conceded the race.  Ever since they reported Prosser’s internal poll numbers last week, every article has presumed that Kloppenburg will be the next justice.  Articles like, “When Kloppenburg takes her seat on the court”, or, “The Kloppenburg courtwill now be…” are now what they are writing with a strong presumption of who will be in that seat.

  77. the white rural vote is much more redneck in GA(as opposed to either VA or NC);and the ‘neo-liberal’ areas of NC and VA are much more in play than in GA

  78. but in off-years black turnout is depressed(the black turnout has to be high in GA for any democrat to win statewide)

  79. wasn’t all that bad, when you considered the beating that some Democrats took in other states.  

  80. to degrade feminists and women in general whenever they’re “complaining” about sexism or “whining” about an issue where “she isn’t in her place.”

    Most woman’s rights advocates I’ve talked to take issue with it. Iunno, maybe it’s just in my own experience.

  81. but the black candidate(unless female)would have to be moderate/conservative as oppossed to moderate/liberal

  82. please give me a break; a little over-sensitive about this in my view(this site is what it is)

  83. I guess “bitching” may be a tad offensive, but these days, it’s been largely stripped of its anti-women connotations when used as a verb.

    Specifically the phrase “bitching and moaning” is a rather common one that I see bandied about to apply to men and women alike, though I think it’s most often used in the context of groups (which are almost always composed of men and women).  

    And I, like, totally studied English in college at, like, USC and stuff. So I totally would know.

  84. God bless Las Vegas for showing America how voting should be done.

    Here in California, I propose we re-name voting “wine-tasting” and that way a lot more people will show up. Although tourists would probably ruin it.  

  85. I wouldn’t argue that North Carolina and Virginia are far easier than Georgia, but the point is that we don’t seem to be close to tapping out our potential voters in the state. Besides, he didn’t really seem to do much worse than Kerry in really rural areas, so it’s not like he’s got the potential to lose a lot more votes there. If anything, simply trying to add two or three points to the totals in some of these counties probably takes care of a decent chunk of his margin.

    We could go back and forth on this, but suffice it to say that if we keep seeing information like this, or if the Obama campaign sees its own polling showing something similar, I would bet a lot of money it will contest the state like it will contest Virginia or North Carolina…at least at first.  

  86. they will be in GA at the start(unless barbour or huckabee is the repub nominee) and the one great thing about our side is that obama will have ONE BILLION with a capital B to spend which means we can play in ALL states that are ‘viable'(in GA obama will be ‘viable’ yet certainly the underdog)

  87. Death threats were made against GOP Senators there.

    It’s really horrible that people can act like that.

  88. behavior, but thanks to Walker a lot of peoples livelihoods are at stake. We also no that the vast majority of protester have been peaceful. There were only 9 arrest out of the hundreds of thousands who showed up. The people who yell and scream at the protester have no stake in this fight, but think they do because they’re precious governor is fighting for his political life. I don’t think this discussion should continue though. It’s not appropriate for this site.  

  89. thinking they will be in Georgia no matter who the nominee is, at least at first, if only to give the appearance of being expansive and aggressive.  

  90. … is perhaps the biggest issue here right now, primarily how badly Joe Donnelley is going to get screwed over.  I just don’t see a way he gets a district to survive in.

    My other big Indiana interest right now is the Indianapolis mayor’s race.  It’s starting to get geared up, and I’m pretty optimistic that Melina Kennedy can win it for us.

  91. On a credible candidate, someone the likes of Rep. Lynch, Rep. Capuano, Mayor Warren, Mayor Driscoll, or one of the Kennedys, entering the race within the month?

  92. But I’m skeptical that this is going to get anyone in MA’s attention when they’ve apparently (according to polling) ignored all the other conservative things that the faux-moderate Brown has voted for or otherwise supported.  

  93. People don’t know because they don’t pay close enough attention.  They like him, but he has a lot of softer support with few diehards.  Believe me, there are lots of ways to attack him effectively.

  94. show part of that recording of him nudging one of the Koch Brothers for some donation as the defacto proof that he’s lobbyists’ lap dog

  95. What makes me optimistic about taking Brown out is that the Democrat only needs a relatively small percentage of people who voted for Brown against Coakley to switch.

    A Presidential level of turnout among non-whites plus a shifting of the mood against the Republicans should take care of most of the rest.  

  96. I am surprised by the reports that Milwaukee is supposedly experiencing low turout while Madison is Australian-like

  97. Turnout appears to be so so in Walker stronghold Waukesha county (Walker won 72-28) but good in Appleton and Green Bay.

    Local election officials are reporting mixed voter turnout levels as numbers begin to roll in early this afternoon. But in Appleton, turnout is projected to more than double the city clerk’s original estimate.

    Officials reported a turnout of just over 15 percent at noon, and Deputy City Clerk Mary Wendell said the noon total is generally about one-third of the final turnout. That would put the new projection at 45 percent, well over the original 20 percent estimate from the city clerk.

    “We’re definitely going to pass that,” Wendell said.

    In Green Bay, the office of the city clerk/treasurer said 10 a.m. returns showed a 10 percent turnout, with varied turnout levels at the city’s 49 polling locations. Madison is reporting 17 percent turnout as of 11 a.m.

    Milwaukee Election Commission Executive Director Sue Edman said officials don’t have any numbers yet, but “we’re hearing from chief inspectors that it’s been steady.” She said the commission received one electioneering complaint, and that a few technical issues early in the morning have been resolved.

    In Waukesha, which, unlike a many of the state’s other large cities, does not have a contested county executive race on the ballot, Deputy Clerk Gina Kozlik said returns are high in a contested city aldermanic district, but “everything else doesn’t seem to be that busy.”

    Kozlik said final turnout should be in the 20 to 25 percent range, which is on par with other spring elections with a statewide race on the ballot.

  98. I expect high turnout and a good night for Dems but 80% is presidential election territory.  

  99. to 2004, in all honesty. And we have no polling for this race.

    We will know soon enough.  

  100. since she is from Spokane, so she could do well in the east while obviously killing it in Seattle.

  101. just because Madison, being the capital and home to the main UW campus, seems like it’d be a lot more civic-minded.

  102. turnout in Maine in 2009 was higher than expected (around 50% versus a projection of 35%) and gay marriage still lost 53-47. So let’s not get too overconfident, or else we’ll crash hard in the event of a loss.

  103. that is important NOT the overall % BUT generally speaking high turmout=good for democrats; low turnout=good for republicans; and my comment dealt with the % in democratic strongholds being abnormally high for a april election

  104. that is important NOT the overall % BUT generally speaking high turmout=good for democrats; low turnout=good for republicans; and my comment dealt with the % in democratic strongholds being abnormally high for a april election

  105. With black population increasing by percentage in many parts of that district that could definitely be a swing district.

  106. This is purely vote totals.  We know that Dane county will be heavily Kloppenberg.  What we don’t know is what the rest of the state will be doing.

  107. I’m just saying turnout isn’t everything. I’ve watched too many elections where I can find all the small reasons in the world why the Democrats have an advantage only to be cursing at my monitor when the results come in.

  108. Outagamie County, which I think has most of Appleton, voted 54-45 Bush in 2004 and 55-43 Obama in 2008.

  109. the other small cities in the Fox Valley are heavily Democratic.

    Appleton is Joe mcCarthy’s hometown and traditionally Republican, but has moved much more blue in the past decade.

    Still, I expect Obama won Appleton slightly if he won the county 55/43.

    In any case, I would be neither happy nor unhappy at Appleton turnout as it will be close.  

    The good part though is if Appleton has high turnout, then the other Fox Cities should be too… and that is VERY good news.

  110. Now there’s a scandal erupting over Carolyn Goodman’s campaign claiming that QVegas endorsed her. (QVegas is our biggest & most influential LGBT magazine.) Publisher Kelly Smith actually took to Facebook to address this rumor…

    QVegas did not endorse any candidate for Mayor we are recommending that out community NOT vote for any candidate who responded to NCC 2011 Primary Endorsements Candidates that did not respond are Chris G., George Harris and Carolyn. On a personal note I am voting for Chris G. today.

    That was pushed by “Divas Las Vegas” star Frank Marino (aka the drag queen who Carolyn Goodman took with her to the QVegas Business luncheon last month!), and fed to Cashetta, another famous local drag queen who hosts his own radio talk show.

    Oy vey, election day is turning out to be quite a doozy here!

  111. Except … Silvio Berlusconi has a lot more money, a lot more control over the media, and has been bankrupt far fewer times (zero, as far as I know). Also, he went with relatively tasteful hair implants instead of that godawful “hairpiece” that Trump has. Still, that’s as good a comparison as any I’ve heard.  

  112. I don’t know much about her except that she’s too kind to Florida Republicans.

    So I guess Strickland will stay in OH and continue to be Kasich’s loyal opposition?

  113. Can anyone tell me how DWS measures up for such things?  Also, does this mean she resigns her seat?

  114. I’m kinda wary about her as DNC Chair after the whole 2008 controversy during her time as one of the co-chairs of the DCCC Red to Blue Program when she seemed to abandon 3 Democratic candidates in South Florida because of her good relations with the Republicans.

    Personally, I’m still a Deaniac and would love to Howard Dean come back to that role, if only temporarily for this election.

  115. Gabby Giffords / Kirsten Gillibrand / Shelley Berkley / DWS?

    Assuming Gabby recovers sufficiently, I think all four will be prominent in the D party for decades to come.

  116. She’s a smart woman, sure, but I don’t think she’s necessarily the best communicator for the Dem talking points. She’s fiercely liberal, which I’m sure folks around here will admire, but I have my doubts that she’ll appeal much to the center. I would’ve preferred Gillibrand.

  117. I distinctly remember reading exuberant early afternoon reports that Kerry had gotten the turnout he needed from Cleveland. That’s just for example.  

  118. I thought the same thing. When playing around in Dave’s app I figured that my cool-looking “I-20” district was unrealistic because it had too many Dems and the “crossroads” district south of it had many more Reeps than it needed, and I expected them to split the north state east-west instead of north-south.

  119. Fleming would definitely not like it. I recall someone on SSP drawing a district like that, saying that it would be good for a Blue Dog Democrat.

  120. And that’s important.  I think she has good fundraising chops, too.  She got screwed over in the house Dem hierarchy after 2010, so it’s good that she gets a plum job.  She does deserve it.

    And I’m glad Strickland stays in Ohio to rally the troops.

  121. the DNC Chair’s only job when a Democrat is in the White House is to get that Democrat elected. It won’t matter if she has a nonaggression pact with any Florida Republicans, because it won’t be part of her focus.

  122. she is very good friends with Giffords and Gillibrand. She was there with Leader Pelosi when Gabby opened her eyes.

  123. I can certainly see Sen. Gillibrand or even Rep. Giffords (if she recovers fully) as Senate Majority Leader someday, if not President of the United States.

  124. if it weren’t for knowing redistricting, I probably would have never known her name until this Senate came up.  And she’s a bit too old for this ya-ya sisterhood.  Trade her for Sen. Klobuchar and they can all serve as President Hillary’s lieutenants in Congress for 2017.

  125. But a question I have to ask is this…TXObserver said it would become over 40% AA.  How much over 40%?  According to wikipedia, it’s 33.5% AA in its current configuration.

  126. I must be getting senile, cause I don’t remember commenting about anything with in regards to Louisiana’s districts, lol.

  127. if I were a Republican I meant, lol. also it keeps all of Caddo Parish which is the base of Paul Carmouche, Fleming’s 08 opponent.

  128. But I do hope this gives us a big opportunity.  If this is fully enacted, I’ll bet that Buddy Leach will be shopping around for a candidate ASAP.

  129. A Democrat would only have to win about 15-20 percent of the white vote, then, to win the district narrowly.

    The problem is that for the Democrat to do that, they’d have to be a white Blue Dog. The primary is going to be dominated by African Americans who aren’t going to want to elect a Blue Dog.

    I see this seat being held by Fleming for another few cycles, but then falling to us after the black population increases relative to the white population a bit more.

  130. He only lost by several hundred votes in 2008 (which, if you look at Jim Martin’s dropoff in Georgia between election night and the runoff, is pretty impressive). He’s a Blue Dog, but it’s a non-VRA seat in Louisiana.

  131. Also, Shreveport Mayor Cedric Glover could be on the short list.  Then, LA would have TWO Cedrics in Congress.

  132. at any rate, ‘Mouche beat an African-American guy in the primary 62-38 in 2008, so he can probably win.

  133. There’s a bench up in the Shreveport area, luckily, so it’s not like he’s the only show in town.

  134. That’s the only sticking point I see sinking him should this redistricting map get adopted by the state.

  135. I think they may have, but I can’t remember. If they did then Carmouche (or someone similar) would do well. However, if they didn’t then Carmouche (or someone similar) is screwed in the Democratic primary simply because the AA% has been increased by 10.

  136. In 2004, an acrimonious primary in LA-07 between Willie Mount and a black Democrat helped elect Charles Boustany.

  137. I wouldn’t call him a Dixiecrat per se, but Dixiecrat-lite-ish.

    The only reason he beat Banks so badly was because Banks was just some dude.

  138. Certainly the higher AA percentage would make it harder for a conservadem now, but if there are jungle primaries, I think ‘Mouche could still make it out.

  139. went 50-48 for Walker, so it’s slightly more Democratic than the state as a whole.

  140. Said that if the committee (which is even D-R for some reason) can’t get a deal that both houses can pass, then he’ll resort to pulling a better map out of comittee  and move it straight to the floor.

    And why wouldn’t the House like it?

  141. Is there a chart somewhere of city totals?

    I’m curious to compare the Appleton numbers to those of teh other Fox Cities… the other cities are both extremely Democratic and heavily unionized, so I’m curious to see how much more they vote Dem this time than the Gov race.  I’d expect a lot of the swingier votes will swing back to the Dem side now.

  142. I’m a big supporter of the link to Fayetteville for AR-04, this is very important for have a good map, but maybe more important still to link Pulaski to the delta counties for do a competitive district. If they wish they can call it AR-01 or AR-02.

  143. I could imagine a scenario in which a fractured Republican field let both an African American Dem and a Conservadem/Dixiecrat to escape into the run-off.

    However, this is unlikely. There really isn’t the base of support in the south anymore for Conservadems. They’re all Republicans now.  

  144. the Georgia loss was heartbreaking but expected, LA-04 was a heartbreaker, and LA-02 wasnt a big deal because it was clear it would come back to us in 2010. basically, 2008 was a hot fudge sundae, and those elections just meant there was no cherry on top. But afterwards, we won some legislative seats in Kentucky or something, and of course NY-20 in late March. It was sometime around spring or summer of 2009 that I started to get nervous.

  145. Am I the only who read she was passed up for DCCC chair because Pelosi was annoyed with what happened in 2008?  DWS annoyed Pelosi for that, and then someone else bugged her too so it went to Israel.  Although I suppose now she’s getting rewarded for getting passed up.  Oh well, she’s a solid for the job at hand.

  146. Not sure why they refuse to entertain the notion of giving AR-04 Pulaski County. Republicans will have 0-4 comfortably by the end of the decade with a map like this.

  147. It shouldn’t be that big a surprise that there still is a large minority of American voters who simply don’t like having a black President, especially one with a “funny” name.

    The thankful thing is the the total Obama opposition is no greater in numbers than it would be for, say, Kerry, or was for Clinton at various times.  So the racism can’t affect an election, just as it didn’t in ’08.  But the intensity of hatred is far greater, and definitely racial.  And the large percentage of birthers reflect that.

  148. It’s become a generic figure of speech, everyone uses it, I know no one offended by it.

    Even old fuddy duddy Ann Landers used a variation of “bitching” with her admonition to some advice seekers to “kwitcherbitchin.”

  149. And while I still think Goodman has the upper hand going into the runoff, I also think she’s been doing quite the job of trying to lose what originally seemed like a cakewalk for her. And Chris G is known for her scrappy grassroots ways, so she won’t make the runoff one bit easy for Goodman should those two make the runoff.

  150. I’d like to see her run for Congress if there’s an open seat that includes Salem.

  151. I’ll pass. On the other hand, President Gillibrand! Though I wish Secretary Clinton would reconsider.

  152. He’s as progressive a Democrat as you’re likely to get out of a state like Montana, and I think it would be extremely difficult for any Republican to beat him if he ran a good campaign. Plus he got away with implying that gay marriage is only controversial because some people are “homophobic” while the sitting governor of a red state!

    I think the Democrats have a lot of new blood they can work with instead of Secy. Clinton, who would be a retread no matter which way you slice it. I think she’s doing a good job as secretary of state, but I don’t like her as a politician; I think she’s more honest and genuine now that she isn’t trolling for votes, to be quite blunt.

  153. The response from right-wingers on the Politico comment thread has been simply vitirolic, but there was one exchange I absolutely adored:

    Commenter 1: “Yeah! Christmas is coming early. She will do more to make the DNC look partisan and unsympathetic than anything we could ever possibly do.”

    Commenter 2: “She will do more to make the DNC look partisan”. I could be wrong but I thought the point of the DNC, or RNC for that matter, was to be partisan?

  154. Ran for governor in 2010 and lost the primary to Barnes, and has now left the AG’s office, but he had the widest re-election margin of any GA statewide Dem in 2006 (57%). Black, and presumably seen as a moderate if he’s winning like that.

  155. The way it’s looking, I could see Obama/Romney perhaps mirroring Bush/Kerry, but with Obama in Bush’s position. Otherwise, you’re probably looking at an ’08 repeat with Huckabee and Gingrich and then, of course, a complete blowout vs. Palin.  

  156. From Wikipedia:

    On December 12, 2010, the Boston Globe reported that “[c]ampaign contributions to [Brown] from the financial industry spiked sharply during a critical three-week period last summer as the fate of the Wall Street regulatory overhaul hung in the balance and Brown used the leverage of his swing vote to win key concessions sought by firms.”[64] Brown received more than ten times the amount of contributions from the financial services industry as House Financial Services Committee chairman (and author of the legislation) Barney Frank during the same period.[64] According to the Globe:

    Brown’s efforts benefited large Massachusetts companies such as MassMutual Financial Group, Liberty Mutual Insurance, Fidelity Investments, and State Street Corp., whose executives and political action committees contributed $29,000 to Brown during the three-week period he was extracting the concessions from Democrats. They also benefited major out-of-state institutions such as Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JPMorgan Chase. Those and other out-of-state financial interests gave Brown a total of $50,000 during the period.[64]

  157. Why wouldnt Obama have a good chance of winning the state? What makes you think Romney will be able to win after months of going to the right and being called out by the Democrats for it?

  158. I never said he didn’t. I do think, however, that Romney will, in all likelihood, keep New Hampshire (and Nevada, for that matter) very close. FWIW, of course, I don’t think Romney plays very well at all in VA/NC/GA, and that’s very troubling for the GOP here. NH, more than anything, is more a symbolic victory than an electoral vote-heavy one.

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