Canadian Election Predictions Thread

Polls have closed in Newfoundland, but we likely won’t hear any concrete results for a little while yet — so we still have plenty of time to discuss your predictions for Canada’s 41st federal election.

Later on, we’ll be blogging live from Edmonton-Strathcona! Stick around; this could get pretty crazy. As mentioned in the comments (terje in particular explains the situation well), Canada has a rather draconian election reporting law that prevents media outlets from reporting results until polls have closed in all parts of the country — that means that we won’t see any official results until 10pm Eastern. Stuff may leak out on Twitter about the Atlantic and Maritime provinces, but little else until that magic hour. Wikipedia has a list of contentious ridings here.

Per Wikipedia, here’s a breakdown of seats in the current parliament, by party and province:

152 thoughts on “Canadian Election Predictions Thread”

  2. Then again, it’s a lot closer to home than other recent elections. Anyway, we should start hearing official results at 10 eastern right?

  3. I’m guessing Tory minority government, NDP takes more seats than the libs.

    And I’m not gonna pretend I’ve been following this closely enough to guess anything more detailed than that.

  4. I already posted this in yesterday’s threat on this, but figure I’ll go on record here (even if there is no babka at stake!)

    —————————————————-

    Here’s my prediction, based on some combo of number crunching, riding by riding examination, polls, gut instinct and a little bit of hope

    I’ve got to admit that there is incredible amount of uncertainty going into this election, all of the permutations of vote splits, 3 way races, 4 way races, strategic voting, efficiency of votes, and wildly divergent polls for some regions make it all like some very elaborate version of 3D chess….

    Talk about moving targets. The Conservatives could easily have 20 more seats or 15 less, the NDP could have 20 more or 20 less, while the Liberals could go as low as 35 or as high as 70. The Bloc could pick up another 10 or so, or just as likely, fall down to as few as 12 seats.

    For what it is worth, the 2 independents I am predicting are both conservatives — Helena Geurgis in Simcoe Grey (who was kicked out of caucus by Harper, so would be rough if he needed her to form a government), and Tim Ford in Alberta, who is pissed at the incumbent conservative and has been campaigning for 2 1/2 years since narrowly losing to him last time out.

    Overall:

    CPC:  128

    NDP: 103

    LPC: 54

    Bloc: 20

    Green: 1

    Independent: 2

    —-

    Newfoundland & Labrador:

    CPC:    1

    NDP:    2

    LPC:    4

    ———————————————–

    Nova Scotia

    CPC:   1

    NDP:   6

    LPC:    3

    ———————————————-

    New Brunswick

    CPC:   7

    NDP:  1

    LPC:   2

    ________________________________________________________

    PEI

    CPC: 2

    LPC: 2

    ________________________________________________________

    Quebec

    CPC:      6

    NDP:    39

    LPC:    10

    Bloc:   20

    ________________________________________________________

    Ontario

    CPC:   49

    NDP:  29

    LPC:  27

    Ind:     1

    ________________________________________________________

    Manitoba

    CPC:   9

    NDP:   4

    LPC:    1

    ________________________________________________________

    Saskatchewan

    CPC:   10

    NDP:    3

    LPC:     1

    ________________________________________________________

    Alberta

    CPC:  25

    NDP:   2

    Ind:     1

    ________________________________________________________

    British Columbia

    CPC:  16

    NDP:  16

    LPC:    3

    Ind:     1

    _______________________________________________________

    North (Yukon, Western Arctic, Nunavit)

    CPC: 1

    NDP: 1

    LPC:  1

  5. Election’s Canada has instituted a media black across the country so NO results will be known until 10 p.m Eastern time. The have also beefed up the social networking police so I wouldn’t expect any news leaking online. In fact many of these websites are going offline until 10.  

  6. Conservative – 142

    NDP – 103

    Liberal – 46

    Bloc – 17

    British Columbia – 21 Cons, 14 NDP, 1 Lib

    Alberta – 27 Cons, 1 NDP

    Saskatchewan – 11 Cons, 2 NDP, 1 Lib

    Manitoba – 9 Cons, 5 NDP

    Ontario – 47 Cons, 34 NDP, 25 Lib

    Quebec – 38 NDP, 17 Bloc, 14 Cons, 6 Lib

    New Brunswick – 7 Cons, 2 Lib, 1 NDP

    Nova Scotia – 5 NDP, 4 Lib, 2 Cons

    Prince Edward Island – 2 Cons, 2 Lib

    Newfoundland – 4 Lib, 2 NDP, 1 Cons

    Nunavut – 1 Cons

    Northwest Territory – 1 NDP

    Yukon – 1 Lib

  7. Welland (ON) was one I remember from last election.

    I think BC should provide some entertainment (Esquimalt Juan de Fuca and Surrey North) come to mind.

    Guelph(ON) should be interesting.  Was almost a 4 way last time.

    Of course no one knows what will happen in Quebec, any ridings with four way ties with NDP, Libs, Cons and BQ. One can hope!

  8. (I think Elizabeth May will pull off that district in and North of Victoria. If I’m eyeballing the map right, it’s the district that includes Buchart Gardens.)

    Inspired by others, I’m also showing my splits by region:

          Cons/Lib/NDP/Other

    BC           17/6/12/1 (green)

    AL           27/0/1/0

    Sas/Man 23/1/4/0

    Ontario  60/25/21/0

    Quebec  6/5/49/15 (BQ)

    Atlantic   10/10/12/0

    North      1/1/1/0

  9. Last Canadian campaign I remember you talking about here, you were working for the Alberta Liberals.

    Have you gone permanently orange, or is this a strategic perspective?

    —

    Any insights on Edmonton? Hard to get a handle on it from the east.

    I’ve heard that people are feeling good about Linda. Any sense of whether Edmonton East is anything other than a long long shot? And I’m assuming the vote split in Edmonton Centre (coupled with the fact that it is still in Alberta) takes it off the table.

    Lots of excitement in Quebec. Was giving rides to the polls today in the townships – working on a viable NDP campaign in L’Estrie – who’da thunk it?

     

  10. Forgive the blurriness — was doing it quickly so that the poll workers wouldn’t notice me taking a picture of a ballot!

  11. And that they still end up 3rd behind the Liberals and furthermore that Harper will get a majority, because the “NDP surge” will just be enough to peel off enough votes from Liberal incumbents to give the seats to Conservatives.  

  12. Not sure how much I’m allowed to reveal under threat of the dreaded Canadian Elections police.

    But looks like the riding of Avalon is not going well.

  13. From Riding by Riding, a compilation of the predictions by various outfits.

    http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/2…

    It should be noted that the Democratic Space’s final prediction is actually Tories – 155, NDP – 86, Libs – 47, Bloc – 20.

  19. The Edmonton Sun endorsed Harper in a typically NY Post-style fashion (“HE’S OUR MAN!”); this is what happens to their news boxes in Edmonton-Strathcona.

  25. The Conservative vote is down just slightly but they are what looks to be electing all of their incumbent MP’s and on the verge of adding two or three more.  

  27. Avalon appears to have stayed in Liberal hands.  +1 for the NDP in St John’s South.  Goose egg for the Cons, again.

  30. is the Conservative party the main right-wing party in Canada?  Is the Liberal party left-wing (as opposed to the liberals in Australia)?  What about the Quebec bloc?  

    Thanks in advance!

  31. Split vote in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe is allowing the Tories to squeak in. The Liberals have been reduced to 1 seat in NB (with NDP having 1 as well). Pathetic.

  32. It is a tight race with the Bloc incumbent, and lots of votes still to be counted, but if it turns out to even be close there, that would be bizarrely positive for the NDP.

    The riding is very rural, and was on absolutely no one’s radar as a possible NDP gain. The candidate has run before and always won less than 10%. He is an openly gay local school teacher.

    (There are more complete results here than in other Quebec ridings, because some parts of it are in the Atlantic Time Zone, so those parts of reporting earlier.)

    If this is indicatif of what lies ahead, the NDP will be very happy in Quebec tonight.

  33. floating around on Twitter right now about results. Does anyone know who of some reliable person to follow for results or something? It’s so hard to sort through what’s going on right now.

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