SSP Daily Digest: 5/2


MT-Sen: TPM’s headline says it all: “23rd Richest Member Of Congress: I’m ‘Struggling Like Everyone Else.'” Those words were indeed uttered by Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg, who is worth anywhere from $6,598,014 and $56,244,998. It’s not quite Fred Heineman, but it’s not exactly far off, either.

NM-Sen (PDF): Republican robo-pollster Magellan has a new survey out for the GOP primary. They find ex-Rep. Heather Wilson at 59, Lt. Gov. John Sanchez at 17, teabagging businessman Greg Sowards at 2, 11 other and 11 undecided. The supposedly RINO Wilson has what seems like preposterously good favorables, 84-12, among members of her own party. The linked PDF has faves for a whole host of other candidates, including some who weren’t tested in the head-to-heads.

NV-Sen: Joe Trippi’s really becoming the go-to guy for rich vanity candidates whom no one wants to see run, isn’t he? Fresh off the vomit-caked Jeff Greene debacle, Trippi’s been hired by wealthy lawyer Byron Georgiou, who so far as refused entreaties to clear a path for Rep. Shelley Berkley. Georgiou’s also arranged to bring on Dan Hart, a local consultant, and pollster Paul Maslin (as in Fairbank Maslin).

WA-Sen, WA-Gov: Republican Rep. Dave Reichert suggested back in January that he might be thinking about a gubernatorial run, something he affirmed in a recent interview with a local tv station. What seems to be new is that he says he’s also thinking about a run against Sen. Maria Cantwell. I can’t imagine that working out well for him, and he’s also quoted as saying that the “hardest part” of adjusting to life in DC was “getting used to sitting on the airplane.” If he’s still grumbling about those transcontinental flights all these years later, then it sounds to me like he’d prefer the governor’s mansion to the Senate.


WV-Gov: Rick Thompson has a new spot specifically noting that “across the country, the rights of workers are under attack” – and promising that he’ll “stand up for workers” in West Virginia.


NH-01: Joanne Dowdell, who is described as a “Portsmouth businesswoman” and has had some involvement in national Dem politics (she was a DNC committeewoman), says she plans to go up against ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in the Democratic primary. It sounds like her politics, by her own admission, are pretty similar to CSP’s, so I’m not really sure what the point of this is.

NV-02: Gov. Brian Sandoval has set Sept. 13 as the date for the special election to replace Rep. Dean Heller. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Ross Miller will announce the rules for the special at a press conference later today. Oh, and Sharron Angle’s sent out a fundraising email (decrying the “left wing of the Republican Party”), so she’s obviously hoping Miller’s framework leaves the door open for her.

NY-13: The New Yorker has just about the most fearsome fact-checking department in the English-speaking world, so if you’re going to call them liars, you’re probably going to get your ass handed to you. That’s exactly what’s happening to Rep. Mike Grimm, who called Evan Ratliff’s piece on his FBI days “fiction,” “a witch hunt,” and “a hatchet job.” Ratliff has responded, and in so doing nailed Grimm on a few mistruths of his own. I don’t know that this whole saga is going to have a huge impact in Grimm’s district (I think the Ryan vote is a much bigger deal), but there are still a lot of documents we haven’t seen. We may never see them, but they still loom out there like a sword of Damocles.

NY-26: New ads from Jane Corwin and Crazy Jack Davis. Corwin’s touts her record on creating jobs, while Davis goes on a rampage, talking directly to the camera about how both parties give bailouts to Wall Street, but he “can’t be bought.” NWOTSOTB in both cases. Meanwhile, NARAL is endorsing Dem Kathy Hochul, but also no word as yet if money will follow.

Other Races:

Wisconsin Recall: A local judge agreed with the Government Accountability Board that eight recall elections (so not including one for GOPer Rob Cowles) could get consolidated on July 12. Democrats had asked that the recalls against Dan Kapanke and Randy Hopper be certified right away, since those petitions were turned in first, and they’re the two most-vulnerable Republicans, but the request was denied. Things may still get delayed if there are petition challenges, which are all but certain – indeed, Dems have already discovered the signature of a Democratic state Rep.’s long-dead father on one. (Republicans amusingly accused Democrats of planting the sig.)

The Journal Sentinel also has a look at state Assembly members who may run in these recalls, on both the Republican and Democratic sides. It’s a tempting proposition because it’s a free shot: These folks don’t have to give up their current seats in order to run. Some of these names have already announced, while others are still considering. And finally, WisPolitics has a roundup of fundraising numbers for all the recall targets.

Grab Bag:

Dark Money: Democrats have finally followed the GOP’s lead and decided to create organizations to counter Karl Rove’s American Crossroads/Crossroads GPS. Former Obama aide Bill Burton and former Rahm Emanuel aide Sean Sweeney will head up “Priorities USA” and “Priorities USA Action,” with a goal of raising $100 million to help President Obama. These groups will be allowed to take in unlimited undisclosed donations. No word yet if they also plan on getting involved downballot.

Redistricting Roundup:

Colorado: Election lawyers out west looking for work now have at least one redistricting battle they can probably look forward to. Steam is coming out of Republican ears now that they’ve seen the Dems’ new map, and I can’t imagine any sort of compromise taking place now. The map the Democrats are going with is one that they’ve released before, called “City Integrity 4”; you can find a PDF of the bill as formally introduced before the legislature here.

Missouri: Finally, the Dems do something right in redistricting: Gov. Jay Nixon just vetoed the legislature’s last-minute compromise map, almost right after it landed on his desk. The CW said Nixon would wait until the very end of the legislative session to veto, to make an over-ride that much more difficult (or possibly push it into September), but it looks like Nixon chose instead to look publicly magnanimous. He’s asked the GOP to send him a new map before the session ends, which makes him look gracious. I suspect that he also knows they can’t over-ride, and his veto letter offered no specific complaints about the map, so he’s cleverly made it impossible for the Republicans to satisfy him.

The GOP could try to make Nixon look bad by forcing a second veto, but given how difficult it was to hammer out a deal between the House and Senate, I think they’d have a hard time sending him a map that looked any different from the one he just axed. So it would look like silly gamesmanship if they tried to put forward the exact same plan. (That didn’t exactly work out for Dick Saslaw in Virginia.) As long as the over-ride fails and Nixon sticks to his guns, this map will end up in court, which would count as a big win for Team Blue.

Mississippi: I have to say, I never imagined this would work – but here we are. A three-judge federal court says they are “inclined” to agree with Democrats and the NAACP that state legislative elections should be held this year under maps that were approved in each chamber but not the other (and hence never signed into law), in order to correct serious one-person, one-vote imbalances. The court could still choose to allow elections under current lines, or draw its own map, but this seems to be the path of least resistance. Note that in VRA cases which go before three-judge trial court panels, appeals are taken directly to the Supreme Court – and the SCOTUS must rule on the case (they can’t kick it by declining certiorari), which is a real legal rarity.

Nevada: Nevada Democrats have released their congressional map, but we can’t seem to find a copy of it online. If you see it anywhere, please let us know in comments.

Virginia: Well, it’s a done deal. Gov. Bob McDonnell signed the new legislative maps into law. (You can see them here.) Now we move on to the congressional map. The GOP could (and I guess will) probably try to wait until 2012 to do that, since they’ll have a chance at re-taking the state Senate this fall. My view is that Democrats would be idiots to compromise and should take their chances with the voters this fall so that they can kick the map-making to the courts next year. Even if we get rocked this year, what’s the worst the Republicans can do to us? Draw an 8-3 map? That’s the only “compromise” they’ll accept now anyway, and even that might not pass VRA muster. So there’s no reason not to wait.

Site News:

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156 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 5/2”

  1. He seems to really be doing a lot right.  What is his future as party leader.  I don’t really see him as a viable presidential candidate (and I’m wary of picking him as a VP candidate in 2016 as I’m not sure he helps Dems’ carry MO as #2 on the ticket).

    Does he get an appointment towards the end of Obama’s 2nd term or do we think he’ll try a 3rd run for Senate against Blunt in 2016?

  2. I very much disapprove of the move, thought I would voice my disapproval once more. We shall see how well the site does after it is lost in the shuffle over at DailyKos (an overheated site for political rhetoric).  

  3. I have the same sig right now there as I do here (which is a quote from Jeremy Hilary Boob, PhD).

  4. Okay, I get how, in some sense, someone like Sean Duffy might not be rolling in dough. He’s clearly not poor, but there are no indications he’s sitting on a large inheritance, or anything like that. But Denny Rehberg is in a different league, even if he’s not Bill Gates. I don’t give a shit if his wealth is tied in up illiquid assets and can’t be cashed in right away. He’s clearly in the top percent of Americans, and his blithe dismissal of this point and his absurd suggestion that he’s “struggling” is really something to behold. He should be ashamed of himself, yes, but he should also be afraid, because if Tester is at all smart, he will remind the voters of this stupid, insensitive comment from now until election day.  

  5. Sen. Bennet won 5 of the 7 districts in this proposed map:

    CO-01: +38% (Denver)

    CO-02: +10% (Boulder / Northwest)

    CO-03: -15% (South)

    CO-04: +7%  (Northeast)

    CO-05: -23% (Douglas / El Paso)

    CO-06: +5% (Adams / Arapahoe)

    CO-07: +5% (Jefferson)

  6. Via Political Wire, here’s an article on Mitch Daniels. I’m not sure it tells us anything new, but if nothing else, it does reinforce one thing: the complete leadership vacuum for the Republicans. Aside from Pawlenty and Romney, which candidates are even remotely credible? Both of them are running, and perhaps Huntsman should be included in that group, but seriously, there’s no one. But is that a bad thing? Does the candidate need to light a fire under the asses of everyone in order to win the primary and, more importantly, the general? At what point can someone boring and serious simply be good enough since he’s not Obama, if ever?

  7. Are we gonna have a thread up tonight on the Candian elections, and one on the special assembly elections tomorrow?

  8. If this were the law in this country?

    An elections law enacted when telecommunications were still in their infancy runs up against the digital age for several hours Monday when polls close in Newfoundland and Labrador.

    Strict rules under the Canada Elections Act prevent any instance of “premature transmission of results” until the last polls have closed in every electoral district in the country.

    That means extra precautions for online publishers and consumers.

    Elections Canada has issued a warning to Facebook and Twitter users to use caution on election day when communicating and posting voting results, saying the act also applies to transmissions made over the internet.

  9. What other political site would have barely a single comment about Osama Bin Laden (and that one only an aside) today while talking about the ins-and-outs of Virginia redistricting?  

  10. Next up is state supreme court.  I still don’t see how he can win this with the residency requirement and the fact he voted in CA in 2009, but maybe there is a liberal interpretation to residency that they can argue….

  11. anyone know of a good site to keep track of the Canadian elections?  Thanks in advance.

  12. I came here to SSP in 2005 and have been here for probably about six years now. This is the first site I checked every morning with a cup of coffee in hand. On days when the Daily Digest seemed to be running a little late, I would say things to myself like, c’mon David…. What’s going on James?!

    This is been a great community, and I am sad to see it ending/changing, although I understand the reasons.

    Thanks for all the hard work to everyone.



    McCaskill is still highly vulnerable, just not any more vulnerable than she was before March

    2 hours ago


    Missouri Senate numbers tomorrow- McCaskill not in any more trouble for reelection than she was pre-airplane issues

    2 hours ago

  14. While this is not a typical media source, the Milwaukee Labor Press is privy to inside information and actually has the second largest circulation in the state behind the JS:

    Key Part from the article:

    “one of the Democrats’ brightest stars in the Assembly would be taking on Alberta Darling in that crucial District 8 recall election. A formal announcement of the actual candidate was planned for later in the week

    One of her fellow legislator spilled the beans Sunday before 500 listeners at the Bay View Tragedy — Rep. Sandy Pasch would be the Democratic standard bearer against Darling, news that drowned Pasch in unexpected cheers of support. Sources also have told Labor Press that this contest may be a bit like a “two-fer” (two for the price of one in Broadway ticket terms) since physician Sheldon Wasserman, a former member of the Assembly who almost beat Darling in 2008, was also eager to run and will certainly be an active supporter if not participant in this race.

    Both Pasch and Wasserman attended the Saturday Democratic dinner without revealing the news, but insiders then told Labor Press that Pasch had scored strongly in surveys of voters, and that she is a new candidate for Darling who now has to scramble to focus that costly GOP opposition research on her.”

  15. The precinct numbers are consistent with the state board of elections, right?  I’m working on a project involving MD-04, and there are some precincts colored in that CD in DRA that don’t appear to be in the state board of elections returns.

  16. The Seattle Times reports:

    It may sound like a crazy rumor, but Ohio’s Democratic Congressman Dennis Kucinich may really be thinking about running for Congress in Washington state – possibly in the yet-to-be drawn new 10th District.

  17. what does:

    net.soapblox.exception.SoapBloxException: java.sql.SQLException: Incorrect string value: ‘xE2x80xA8x0D


  18. His star could rise, but the Democrats already have some really outstanding candidates for 2016, and I think Gov. Nixon’s niche is probably well occupied by Gov. Schweitzer and Sen. Warner.

  19. he’s basically a right-wing Democrat, although it’s not clear if that’s because his hands are tied by the Republicans in the legislature. Perhaps a senate run is best if he has national ambitions, since it would give him a chance to break free and flex his progressive muscles for a change.  

  20. David seems convinced this is the right thing for the site, and I know he loves this community as much as you or I do, and I know he knows more about how to make it work and foster this sort of environment. So, I trust him. I don’t know if I agree with him, but I trust him.

  21. Reminds me of the flashback Lisa Simpson has when she keep’s finishing 2nd to her friend.  She daydreams of concert presented by Avis (#2 car rental place) with Oates, Massena , Garfunkel and Lisa where people show up at a conference just to “boo” them.

  22. I’ll still check it everyday. But its different, and honestly, worse. IDK if ill read every comment and every diary anymore. I’m worried but for now, I’m gonna give it a shot because, well, I trust dave.

  23. I, for one, can do nothing but wish the SSP folks well at their new site.  I’ll still be checking in every day for some of the best political info anywhere.  It will remain my first internet stop every morning.

    However, this will be my last post.  I’ve appreciated the opportunity to interact with actual adults through the last few years after I discovered SSP.  I simply cannot actually register for an account over at DailyKos.  There’s no way to indicate that it’s an SSP-only account, so registering will appear to show support for a site which I despise.

    So good luck to SSP!  I recognize the resource advantages to the move, but I sincerely hope you don’t get tarred with the DK brush, much as Pollster, despite its continued excellent content, has lost credibility with many by being part of Huffington Post rather than seen as a truly independent entity.

    Lance Schulz

    Greensboro, NC

  24. That I linked in the digest up above? (This one.) Particularly part 10. It’s going to be hard for us to get “lost in the shuffle” when we have our own sub-site and when horserace diaries barely get a dozen comments at DK as things stand now.

  25. While I am very happy for DavidNYC I do have concerns about the move. Nobody deserves to be rewarded for the success that SSP has become more than DavidNYC. He’s done an amazing job here and I know I am so grateful for having this site to discuss horserace politics with you all. I know he will make the DailyKos a much better place and they are really lucky to have him and all the SSP staff moving over there.

    My fear however is that the move to Kos will change SSP from horserace talk to cheerleading. That the yahoos that populate Kos could drown out what I think we all agree is intelligent discussions about elections with rhetoric and  vitriol.

    It’s been nice to have a place to talk about politics without the stupidity and hate. I just hope that after the move the moderators can be extra vigilant so as not to lose what’s so great about this place!

  26. After lurking with varying degrees of frequency since 2004, I finally became a Kossack today (h/t to the Polish/Ukrainian, i.e. land of Cossacks, part of my heritage.)

    I agree that Daily Kos sometimes gets overheated in the diaries and comments, though the frontpage diarists are usually spot on and mainstream.  Still, there I will probably be a relative conservaDem (only relative, mind you) if I participated in the issues-oriented diaries (something that I really don’t intend to do all that much.)

  27. The current total is 16~27~9.

    This includes states that have finished their maps (Arkansas 1~2~1, Iowa 2~1~1, and Louisiana 1~5~0), states that are mostly finished (Indiana 2~5~2 and Oklahoma 1~4~0), at-large seats (Alaska and Wyoming for the Republicans, Delaware and Vermont for the Democrats, and Montana and the Dakotas as swing), and states which cannot do anything to change the fundamentals of their seats (Idaho and Nebraska as all Republican, Hawaii, Maine, and Rhode Island as all Democratic, New Hampshire as all swing, and Mississippi as 1~3~0).

    I’ve removed Missouri due to Nixon’s veto.

  28. Do you know how many times I tried posting this and getting that soapblox error response? At least 10.  

  29. a 3rd run for Senate, if he were to lose, might be the end of him.  For someone in his mid-50’s, that would suck for him and Dems.  

    Maybe he could be a latter 2nd term appointment for AG?  I don’t know how well recieved his AG tenure in MO was, but I’d rather not lose a very popular Dem in a reddish-purple state.

  30. Oh come on. You can edit your signature to indicate that you are only there for SSP content. Thats what I’ve done…  

  31. That’s he’s probably a conservative Dem.  With the Carnahan brand on the downswing at the moment (Robin losing for Guv, Russ seeming to get re-districted out, etc.), I’m not sure if anything better can be expected from MO.  

    Still, he seems fairly smart, not mega-corrupt and he looked pretty solid on TV recently after the tornados 2 weeks ago (though those are over-shadowed by the far-worse ones that hit the South last week).  

    I guess considering how bad Midwestern Dems did at the top of the ticket in 2010 I’m more pragmatic.  He’d be an improvement over Blunt in almost all ways though.

  32. Well, except for this bit:

    While waiting to be interviewed on KTVQ, he proposed a novel solution to April’s budget impasse: locking lawmakers in a closet, “two by two,” until they reach an agreement. “Give ’em a baseball bat,” he said. “The guy who wins gets whatever he wants. Or gal! I mean, Barbara Mikulski”-the squat, 74-year-old senior senator from Maryland-“could kick the shit out of all of them.” Most senators have an earthy side, but they tend to tone it down when a reporter is in the room. Tester turns it up.

    HAHAHAHA. She probably could.

    Anyway, unless his funding plummets to nothing because he pissed off the Daily Kos crowd and unless he starts being detested by Montana residents, I’m not sure why the hell I should care that some people don’t like him. I can’t see money being a big problem, particularly if Obama contests the state again, which would give him a natural boost.

    When are we going to see an article about the possibility of a nutcase like Michelle Bachman or a turd like Newt Gingrich dragging down some Republican? Should I hold my breath? Why is it that only Democrats face electoral troubles these days?  

  33. until I learn more. I’d also be far more willing to accept someone more conservative than McCaskill if he’s serving as a senator rather than as president.  

  34. So I use almost.  I’m sure there’s an area where he’s not better, and he might just be the same.  

  35. Having a lot of money tied up in land/equipment is very common for farmers/ranchers.  People will be more sympathetic to him far mroe than if it were tied up in a trust fund or some other mechanism.

    Having a net worth and cash are very different, though I know everyone on this board egts this.  I worry though that this line of attack will go nowhere, as he might very well be truly poor (we really don’t require enough info on these financial disclosure if you ask me).

    I’ve seen some comments on the link where people say “sell some land” and that is 1,000% the wrong angle to take.  For ranchers/farmers, telling them to sell some land to pay his bills is the equivalent of saying sell your child to pay the bills.  So Dems will just need to be careful to not go overboard on this one.

    that being said, Tester is clearly pretty smart and can thread the needle (its a wide needle lol) and portray him as out of touch without going the extremist route whereby people are viewed as attacking his type of assets/business.

  36. With all the Bin Laden news no one (other than us) would have paid attention to Pence. Makes sense to reschedule it.

  37. Mike Pence running for Governor of Montana against Tester?  I was very intrigued lol.

  38. The answer isn’t simply to sell his asset; I get that, as I indicated above. But the point is that he has assets, in addition to some personal wealth, access to quality health care, and a congressional salary. As I said above, I get that he isn’t Bill Gates, but the idea that he’s struggling is absurd.

    Since his concern is a Montana audience rather than a national one, I think the distinction melts away. Tester isn’t an idiot, and he’s a rancher himself, so I doubt that he will be stupid as to attack bluntly.  

  39. My concern is that it gets to asset type and not asset amount.  Its the sort of trunabout the GWB era helped Republicans perfect.  I think tester is smart enough to handle it properly, I am not so sure about outside groups and National committees.

  40. I think he’s going to make it quite clear to any official group that he’s running the show.  

  41. Let alone the fact that on paper he’s worth millions. This is a negative pure and simple for him. It really doesn’t matter how his assets are distributed. The fact that he has millions in assets is enough.  

  42. You probably had some kind of invisible character that SoapBlox does not like. If that ever happens in the future (I suppose it could happen at DK, too), try copying and pasting your text into a plain-text browser, then copying it out of there and pasting into the site.

    If that still doesn’t work and you’re on a Mac, download TextWrangler (free) and use the Zap Gremlins feature.

  43. I always thought your quote came from the first Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory movie. Shows you my level of intellect….

  44. I’m quickly becoming optimistic that Colorado is somewhere where we can make gains from redistricting. We control the Senate, the Governor’s seat, and we only have one seat less than the Republicans in the House.  

  45. Sounds like a Dem gerrymander. Are they hoping that the court will find it less objectionable than the Reep gerrymander it’ll be up against?

  46. there are plenty of people in ranching/farming idnustry with high land/equipment values who don’t consider themselves wealthy.  Cash flow is really the name of the game.

    Trust me, my parents are bankrupt dairy famrers who had high-6/low-7 figure assets at one point with high-6/low-7 figure debts.  A cash flow disruption flushes it all away.

    People from Montana will be more sympathetic to that than most non-rural states.  The only guarantee we have is his assets are worth $6.6M and his debts could be worth up to $5.6M, leaving him with a paper worth of $1M (I agree its probably much more but can’t prove it so why bother).

    Its a stupid thing for him to say, but it is not some easy attack like Sean Duffy struggling on $174,000 per year.  Much better off attacking Rehberg on his annual salary than assets/net worth…I wouldn’t even mention his assets.  Best attack of all would be pressuring him to disclose more about his assets and post more detailed tax returns (if he hasn’t already).

  47. Eh. Neither of them are gerrymanders. The Court will probably split the difference.

  48. So there’s a very good shot that they side with City Integrity 4 (or something close to it). Really there are two arguments against it: Pushing Grand Junction in with Boulder (which are two separate communities of interest) and throwing Colorado Springs in with Douglas County (both hyper conservative and the same community of interest, but definitely packing a boatload of Rs together). The new CD-5 might be the most conservative district outside the south.  

  49. Mitt “I will do more for gay rights than Ted Kennedy” Romney is considered a serious candidate, if not the frontrunner.

    It’s a really sad comment on the Republican field.

  50. for the same side, with no serious Democratic presidential primary and us all being on the same page in our desire to take back the House and state legislatures and hold the Senate.  We of course can debate over which candidates are the best for that but we share the same goals.

    That said, it will be interesting four years hence when we do have a contested Dem race for the White House.  Frankly, DK and similar sites weren’t always pleasant reading during the 2007-08 Obama/Hillary/Edwards/etc. contests.

  51. of those candidates he mentioned(romney,pawlenty,huntsman)will win the repub nom; they are simply not crazy enough to appeal to the tea-baggers(PAT ROBERTSON won the iowa caususes back when that party was MORE sane)

  52. impression than reality, but I always imagined that if Romney were to be elected, he’d be a reasonable, center-right president. He would occupy the same sort of territory that Obama is in, but from the right, more or less. That is, if congress wasn’t controlled by the loons.

    I just don’t see a reason for his candidacy to exist. I know we aren’t in the issue stage of the primary yet, but still, why is he running? What’s his vision, besides rich people paying less in taxes?  

  53. no election results will come in until the last polls close in BC or NW territory or whatever?

  54. if we didn’t find out the results until 1 AM East Coast time for American elections, I would murder someone. Not only would that be too long of a wait, but most states would be done counting by then. The trickle of the results, the suspense of which counties will go blue and which will go red, reading each exit poll as it comes in–that’s the whole thrill of election night right there.

  55. This became clear in 2008 when twitter spilled the results for the Atlantic provinces.  No one will get sued here. The NYT might but we should be fine.

  56. Apparently they do media blackouts in places where they’re still voting:

    CBC Television and CBC News Network will feature a live election special airing east of B.C. starting at 9:30 p.m. ET, when polling stations are closed elsewhere in the country. A blackout will be in effect in B.C. during that time, from 6:30 to 7 p.m. PT, before the broadcast goes coast to coast.

  57. It’s a silly law, and unenforceable in the age of the Internet (how are you going to prosecute an anonymous Twitter user?).

  58. Both Quebec and Ontario have moved their closing times later, Ontario’s to 9PM. Given that counting is by hand, few results will be in by 7PM Pacific time, as there is really only a one hour gap.

    Of course, that used to be different. In 1993 for instance, everything except the West was in by the time CBC went live, but because of a later BC closing time, that was at 11:00 PM Eastern instead of 10PM.

  59. On the one hand, It’d take a lot of the fun out of election night, on the other hand, it would make it a lot easier to get volunteers to keep going until the polls close at 8, not when the news starts dangling shiny leaked exit polls before the polls close on the east coast.

    Of course, it’d be totally unenforceable in the age of the internet.

  60. Out of curiosity, why would the NYT get sued in the first place? Since they’re an American paper, do Canadian laws apply to them?

  61. I’m going out tonight, so I wouldn’t be able to check results until 8 or 9 something anyway, most likely.

    At any rate, I assume this means that at 10:00, results from Newfoundland and Labrador will just magically appear at 100% in, similar to the HI-01 special election. Seems kind of ridiculous. When was the last time Indiana/Kentucky results swayed votes in Hawaii and Alaska?

  62. One of the seats is a Republican-held seat that voted for Kloppenburg 52-48, so that sounds like the marquee race of the night.

  63. They’ll be in the Daily Digest tomorrow. Three in Wisconsin, one in California.

  64. I bet pretty much anyone who’s paying that much attention has already voted. Do you have any evidence for your claim?

  65. of later recalls; we whould especially note the overall turnouts from both sides to get a sense of ‘motivation’ and ‘intensity’

  66. As much as the partisan in me wants a candidate like Trump that wouldn’t get within 15 points of Obama nationwide and would put states like Tennessee in play, a growing part of me is afraid that a loon like that would catch fire and somehow win.  

  67. in past u.s. elections that turnout in the west has been depressed by early results from the east; there are all kinds of college case study’s that have been done on this(one in particular is the 1980 election where carter was getting pummelled in the east and democratic congressmen in the west lost close races due to this effect)and in college i studied many of them

  68. I change my vote in the 2004 presidential primary. At the time I was living in California and planning to vote for Edwards, but he dropped out of the race before I voted so I switched to Kucinich.  

  69. these numbers are actually pretty encouraging. The last time the Repubs won a governorship in a Lucy-yanking-the-football state, they had to face an unpopular incumbent governor and start out ahead by double digits, as well as to take advantage of a favorable national climate. The first two conditions are fulfilled if Gregoire runs again, but Inslee has plenty of room to grow. Even if Gregoire makes it to the general, it’s looking like the third condition won’t be fulfilled, and Obama should win WA comfortably.

    On a side note, not that this discredits the poll, but it looks like SurveyUSA’s whacko crosstabs have struck again. Somehow I suspect that Hispanics in Washington don’t vote 3-1 Republican, but what do I know.

  70. for moderates/indies and if those aren’t available they vote statusquo/least offensive(this is known as ‘holding your nose and simultaneously pulling the lever’)

  71. you state the entire case on why romney will never get the tea-baggers to like him(or support him for the nomination)

  72. Romney has made it clear that he’ll govern to whomever he needs to pander to.  As president, I’m sure he’d continue to pander to his base as he’s doing now and try to couch it in a way that is less offensive to independents.  In other words, he’d govern like Bush.  The only difference being that the GOP base at the time was the religious right.   The current base are teabaggers.  Either way, the base will continue to be appeased.

    There are no such things as Republican moderates.  A republican hasn’t governed moderately in over a decade. Tthat won’t change now, regardless of how the candidate would make you think otherwise.

  73. I’ve never understood how this could be “proven”.  I mean the fact that Dem’s lost in a Reagan landslide doesn’t really tell me much.  Sure data can suggest things, but given all there is is polling and prior electiond ata to go on (and we know polling has many flaws), I don’t think anything is proven.

    I would tend to think this whole thing has actually pretty much became a non-issue.  WA and OR have mail-in balloting, AK and HI aren’t that big enough population-wise to move the needle, and California will behave of its own accord because its so frigging huge.  

    Add in the idea that there’s now a proliferation of early voting in a lot of states and I don’t see how early results announcing could really have that much of an impact.  

  74. Since most voters on the West Coast now vote my mail its really more of a moot point now. Most voters in CA, WA and OR cast their ballots long before polls open (let alone close) on the East Coast.

  75. and it was only in reference to how it would force Pence to move back the date of his Gov announcement.

    As I was writing it I was even wondering to myself is it in bad taste to bring up  only in its realtionship to its effects Pence’s gubernatorial run!

  76. and it was only in reference to how it would force Pence to move back the date of his Gov announcement.

    As I was writing it I was even wondering to myself is it in bad taste to bring up  only in its realtionship to its effects Pence’s gubernatorial run!

  77. was the last time the GOP won the Washington state governorship.  In that race, the unpopular Democratic incumbent was Dixy Lee Ray who was to the right of her nominal party and even some in the GOP.  She lost the primary to now-Rep. Jim McDermott, who then lost the general to Republican John Spellman.  Spellman was defeated in 1984 by Booth Gardner and Democrats have held that office ever since.  (Having gubernatorial elections in presidential years probably helps Dems nowadays, though it must have hurt McDermott in 1980.)

  78. I have no idea how well each of these guys is known, but none of the margins are so large as to make me think it’s a lost cause.

    Besides that, what chance is there of a Teabagging? Dino Rossi was an establishment guy, wasn’t he? He managed to win the nomination yet again, so perhaps there won’t be any effect here, but if a Palladino/Angle character were to win the nomination, wouldn’t this become a fairly easy race for the Democrats?  

  79. This was pretty much to be expected, but it’s still a big boost to Kate Marshall.

  80. Angle and/or Lippold run anyway plus an establishment pick and whether Harry Reid has the power to keep other Dems out. I suspect that answer to both is probably yes but only time will tell. There is also a court battle yet so it isn’t quite a done deal.

  81. But two Dems are running. Jill Derby is in, as is Kate Marshall, according to Ralston  

  82. Elections Canada can’t sue blogs based outside of the country. They tried to get a court order against twitter a few years ago and failed.

    The NYT was more an example of an organization that has to do business in Canada. While Canada can not actually send any Americans to jail or fine them for leaking results, they can make life uncomfortable in Canada if they have work there, and thats why I suggested the Times would probably avoid provoking them.

  83. I think all US major media outlets have learned to handle Canada with kid gloves.

  84. but who knows what might happen.

    On a similar note, part of the reason someone like Daniels scares me is that he’s pretty damn boring. If he managed to get the nomination without becoming a Bachmann/Palin clone and Obama was in a weaker position than I suspect he will be, then I’m not sure he’d have to do much. He’d most if not all of the anti-Obama vote and could easily win Independents in a lot of swing states.

  85. Krolicki was going to wait a bit, and he definitely was going to be the establishment pick.

  86. Paul Akers and Clint Didier, the two main teabaggers, combined for 15% of the vote in the primary. Dino Rossi got 33%.

  87. City Integrity 4 pushes the most conservative parts of Colorado Springs, already the most conservative place in the state, in with Douglas County areas that are remarkably conservative themselves.

    Dems already can’t win the district (Lamborn won by 18 against a conservative veteran in 2006), but it’s going to get even more conservative by removing Widefield/Security/Fountain and some of the areas near Ft. Carson (that had a Dem. state Rep until this year).  

  88. …she was the losing Dem nominee in 2006 and 2008.

    She’s going to be a problem for Marshall.

    Ralston knows Derby is running and today still said Dems have a much better chance than the GOP of clearing the field.

    But it’s going to take a lot of work to squeeze out Derby.  I imagine Reid personally will have to lean on her to get out.

    This is a conservative district we couldn’t win in our ’06 or ’08 waves, so we need a clear field to have a shot, much more than the Republicans do.

  89. She is not a gadfly a la Georgiou, she is a very establishment Dem. Hopefully that means it will be possible to push her out.

  90. I’ve stuck by it that DavidNYC was right in the first place, and wrong to revisit his opinion, that this whole plane business was much ado about nothing as far as voters are concerned.

    McCaskill is well-known, well-liked, and personally trusted, even if some swing voters disagree with her politics.

    It’s awfully hard to change her public image with something as small ball as this plane stuff, especially after the way McCaskill responded to it:  immediately owning up responsibility and working diligently to pay the taxes and dump the plane.

  91. with that notion. I have no doubt that he leans to the right, but his background doesn’t scream ideologue but instead speaks of a managerial Republican. It wouldn’t be the surprise of the century if he governed in a kind of reasonable way, but then, it wouldn’t shock me if he pandered in the White House the same way he’s pandering to the base now. I’m not willing to find out which it would be, of course.  

  92. I always thought Pasch would be the stronger candidate against Darling, and I’m glad that she’s willing to potentially take the plunge from a relatively safe assembly seat into a senate seat that will be hard to hold down, because I think she’s up to it. This race is probably still lean R, but is totally winnable.

  93. I just think that way Pasch has established herself in the Assembly and that Darling has an opposition research file on Wasserman ready to go indicate to me that Pasch is simply stronger.  It will still be on uphill climb for Pasch, but given the strength of Pasch, it is lean R at worst.  Hopefully PPP will do another round of polls when there is a slate of candidates so that we can get some more numbers and see how the Wisconsin electorate is after the collective bargaining bill has been around for a while and as the larger budget becomes more salient.

    However, while the current Senate district will be hard to keep, this district can really be improved due to redistricting.  If Pasch is successful, I think it is more likely than not that Democrats have taken back the State Senate, which means they get a seat at the table.   While if it goes to Court, all bets are off, if the leg and Walker agree to an incumbent protection plan, she easily could get a better district.  In fact, I created a hypothetical 19-14 Dem Senate Map based on the Dems winning 5 seats and losing none (one of the best case scenarios but the map can easily be amended for what happens in the summer).  For the 8th, I exchanged some of the Waukesha and Washington Co for some intensely Dem inner city Milwaukee ward.  This district (the lime green one) would be around 57 percent Barrett, so a strong Dem seat.


  94. I think Amodei only path was to be hand picked by GOP establishment in a closed special or to have a divided tea party vote and sneak through a GOP primary as the lone mainstream candidate.

    I cant see a path for him to win an open jungle special election or him jumping in to be a spoiler.

    If this is what happens he’s most likely better off pulling out if the GOP field gets crowded and then running in the 2010 GOP primary as a unity type candidate if the GOP loses the special because of the divisions.

  95. Although I’m actually sorta hoping against an incumbent protection map. We need to take back the Assembly in 2012 if we want to undo some of the shit Walker rams down our throats this cycle.

    Also, on a sort of unrelated note, have you heard anything about whether Ann Hraychuck’s thinking about getting into the race against Harsdorf? I can;t see why she wouldn’t (unless she’s just through with politics), but I haven’t been able to find much about that race.

  96. What does this do to the VRA districts, SD4 (Red) & SD6 (Dark Green)? It looks like it would make both of them a lot less black.

  97. In regards to the Assembly, I just do not think there is much the GOP can do.  The Rock County seats, seats in SW Wisconsin, the Green Bay seat, the two Eau Claire seats, and this Wisconsin Rapids seat will be hard to really make much better.   There is much more potential in the Senate where It is easy to switch around Assembly seats (As I have done) to make a Senate seat safer.

    As for Hraychuck, I do not know.  I think she would be the best candidate. There will be an announcement tomorrow of the candidate:

    For some reason, they are not giving the name out, which I find lame.  

  98. I hope it’s Hraychuck, but just getting a mane out there will be good. This brings us up to candidates in 5 the 6 districts where we’re getting recalls.

    As for the Rock county seats, Joe Knilans is royally fucked, and Evan Wynn is probably screwed because he’s tied to whitewater, but Amy Loudenbeck could have some staying power. She has a lot of local connections which has allowed her to perform far better in Beloit than any Republican has any right to. She barely lost the city last year against a decent opponent, outperforming Barret and Feingold. I still think she screwed herself over with her vote on the budget repair bill, but that race won’t be a total gimmie. The seat will probably be at least incrementally more republican next year, as she’s probably gonna lose the slice of turf she has in Jainsville due to the city losing population and that turf needing to be integrated into Knilans’ seat.

  99. Red will still be majority Black while Green will be minority majority.  

    If that is not Kosher, here is an alternative that looks quite messy and the 8th is not as Democratic, but still takes in white liberals in those sections of Milwaukee and East Wauwatosa.  It would be more Democratic, but not as strongly so. Both districts would be majority Black, even the Red one with the tendril into Ozaukee county would still be 60 percent Black VAP.


  100. I feel like she’s voting like someone who knows she’s going to lose and no longer gives a f#$*. No Republican can win a seat centered on Beloit in a presidential year. If Lothian had waited one more year to retire, they could have put her into his district, but August won’t let that happen.

  101. And if this were Jeff Klett we were talking about, I’d agree with you. However, if there’s any Republican who can win the district, it’s Amy. She has a lot of connections with dems and dem-leaning indies which allow her to make inroads in places other Republicans can’t. I agree that this race is probably leans D at worst, but it would be a mistake to count her out.

  102. There still is not enough Hispanic strength for an entire SD, but certainly there needs to be one Assembly seat, which is JoCasta’s 8th AD.  

    However, I do not know the ins and outs of how the VRA affects Wisconsin.  

  103. One of them will drop out. This is a traditionally Republican district. If both of them run, neither will win, and neither will have any incumbency advantage to have any chance of wining the seat in the future.

    The story is different for Republicans/conservatives. If more than one of them run, one of them might STILL win the seat, and if they don’t, Republicans will be likely to win the seat in a year and a half.

    The strategic math doesn’t work for multiple Democratic candidates. One of them will drop out. If they don’t, they’re both toast this year – AND in the future. It would make the pursuit a waste of time.

    Unless they’re looking to start a reality TV show or something. 😉

  104. I can’t see why the Dems can’t get her out of there. I guess I’ll wait to hear what atdleft has to say.

  105. It’s all very nebulous atm.

    Also, atdleft has his ear to the ground and will tell us more.

  106. it’s 2011 and Barack Obama is not only still alive, but killing the world’s most feared terrorist.

    He’s Barack Obama……bitch.

  107. I just hope that the people of AR are awakened now that these newbies that THEY elected are revealed to be such shitheads.

    I know Obama isn’t at all liked in AR, but I very highly doubt they sympathize with such sentiments, especially in the wake of Osama bin Laden’s destruction.

  108. It would be pretty silly to let the Republicans pass any map. Just veto everything, and let the courts draw it.  

  109. To declare that Dennis Kucinich is crazier than I am, which is saying something.  

  110. Y’all can laugh, but Kucinich is an icon and a person you can count on to serve your interests.  If you needed help, you knew you could contact him and he’d give you a hand, even if you lived far away from his district.  He represented all Americans. High up local republicans respected and liked him, because they knew he was true to his beliefs and could never be bought.  Despite his whackiness, he was able to garner the votes of “ethnic democrats” from people that will now probably voted Republican otherwise.  It’s an end of an era.  No one will be able to replace him, or follow him for that matter.  I’m getting sad just thinking about it.

    And so I end my last post here.  See you on the flip side!!!  It’s not going to be the same, but we all have to adapt, I guess.

  111. Redone:

    2000s: 18-28-8

    2010s: 16-27-9

    Democrats have lost seats in Indiana and Iowa.

    Republicans have lost seats in Iowa and Louisiana, but gained in Indiana.

    A swing seat has been gained in Iowa.

    The only two states that I’m reluctant to settle on are Indiana and Arkansas. Currently I’ve got them as 2-5-2 and 1-2-1. Any comments?

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