SurveyUSA (5/16-18, likely voters and actual voters, 5/5-7 in parens):
Kevin Mannix (R): 46 (41)
Mike Erickson (R): 42 (49)
(MoE: ±4.7%)
As you probably know, this race was recently shaken up in a big way when Mannix released serious allegations about Erickson’s hard-partying past. Among voters who have already returned their ballots in Oregon’s mail-in system, Erickson leads by 2 points. But in SUSA’s likely voter screen, the 38% of voters who have not yet returned their ballots favor Mannix by a 14-point margin.
On the Democratic side, things are looking good for state Sen. Kurt Schrader:
Kurt Schrader (D): 43 (37)
Steve Marks (D): 19 (14)
Other/Undecided: 38 (49)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
who would we rather face on the republican side?
We the GOP can not win this race with Erickson as our nominee. Mannix, in his statewide general elections, has always carried OR-5, even when losing statewide. Mannix is our only hope.
I think the very bruising primary on the Republican side will make this easier to hold. Looks like Schrader is cruising to a easy victory which is bad in a way because I would prefer Marks as a representative but good in a way beacuse he probably has a better chance to win.
mannix is damaged goods. tell me about kurt shrader.