NE-Sen: New Poll Shows a Tough Race For Kleeb

In case you missed it.  Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/19-21, likely voters, 11/12-14 in parens):

Scott Kleeb (D): 31 (28)

Mike Johanns (R): 58 (59)

(MoE: ±4)

Those are some rough numbers for Kleeb, who might have been expected to get a bit of a bounce from trouncing Tony Raimondo in the state’s May 13 primary — yet, 50% of voters have “no opinion” of him.

A recent Rasmussen poll pegged this race at a much less daunting 40-55 for Johanns.  The truth may be somewhere in between, but that’s still an awfully tough task for Kleeb.

Also of note are the poll’s presidential crosstabs, which have Obama lagging badly behind McCain at 29% to 57%.  (Rasmussen had it at 39% to 50%.) Despite a SurveyUSA poll from February showing Obama leading McCain within the margin of error in NE-01 and NE-02, R2K has Obama behind by 35 points in 1st and 30 points in 2nd.  Perhaps bizarrely, he’s only 20 points behind in the state’s most Republican district, the R+23.6 3rd.

15 thoughts on “NE-Sen: New Poll Shows a Tough Race For Kleeb”

  1. Those results seem messed up. 30 points behind in those two districts? And then 20 points behind in the third?

    I think it’s more like 10 percent in reality.

    I do think the Rasmussen poll was a little optimistic but something in that model is funky. The reality is that Kleeb is probably behind by 15-20 points and that most people have no clue who he is. The primary wasn’t nearly as high profile as the ones in North Carolina or Oregon.

  2. Those numbers strike me as odd. I don’t think Kleeb is in the lead or anything crazy like that, but I do think he’s close enough to to give Johanns pause. If he runs a strong campaign, he could force the GOP to spend some cash here.  

  3. He got 45% in this district in ’06, and is much better known here than the rest of the state, so this is why he performs stronger here despite its heavy republican lean.

    Still, this poll is extremely fishy, and for that matter the Mississippi poll. Kos should probably dump it and find a new pollster.

  4. the closest he has come to controversy was with speeding tickets (and its not quite a huge deal). He has handled getting his drivers license suspended well (well, as well as one can for getting busted doing 90 in a 75 and etc).

    So now he has a driver instead of driving himself around.

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