Research 2000 for Daily Kos (6/2-4, likely voters):
Jim Slattery (D): 38
Pat Roberts (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4%)
Very decent numbers for Slatts, and they line up nicely with Rasmussen’s recent poll showing Roberts ahead by 52-40.
We’ve really been blessed with a large number of Senate races that “could get interesting” this year (in addition to those that already are clearly very competitive): Oklahoma, Texas, Kentucky, Nebraska and Kansas. It’s a solid bench of second-tier races where the DSCC could put its ample resources to good use if the circumstances warrant it.
“could get interesting” is the key phrase here; the fact that we are even talking about kansas(friggin’ kansas!!)is amazing BUT these races “could get interesting”; another republican senator(in this case roberts)is NOT above 50% and yet it has just been assumed that roberts would be re-elected in a walk; when the repukes see this poll(just like so many others this cycle), they are going to throw up
I was born in 1951, and during my lifetime, every state in the union has elected at least one Democrat to the Senate, with the exception of Kansas. Democrats have been elected to statewide office in Kansas; indeed, three of the last five governors have been Democrats (John Carlin, Joan Finney and Kathleen Sebelius), but never to the Senate. 2008 could be the year that it happens.
That’s because in the 2002 election, Roberts did not have a Democratic opponent and thus won over 80% of the vote. To say that just because he’s polling about slightly over 50% is any indication that he’s lost vast amounts of support is inaccurate.
The last competitive race that Roberts had was his first election in 1996, and he still got 62%. Before that, he was a veteran member of the House from eastern Kansas who never fell below 60% in his election. If anyone has read Thomas Franks’ What’s the Matter With Kansas, they’ll understand that Kansas politics is quite conservative whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat.
Finally, no offense to Jim Slattery, but the guy was a Congressman from 14 years ago. I do admire how former politicians have reinvigorated themselves to run for office after a long hiatus, but I think the people that voted for Jim back those long years ago probably aren’t even in the state anymore, since the hemorrhaging of jobs and various natural disasters (i.e. tornadoes) have forced people to leave. That’s sad but that’s the reality.