A new poll has just been released by the Bob Lord campaign indicating that incumbent John Shadegg is vulnerable. However, a lot of info is missing, according to Roll Call.
Polling memos are only as valuable as the numbers in them. A May 27 Bennett, Petts & Normington memo in Arizona’s 3rd district claims that Rep. John Shadegg (R) is “extremely vulnerable” but provides few and flimsy numbers from the actual survey to support the claim.
The May 18-20 survey, conducted for Shadegg’s Democratic challenger, attorney Bob Lord, showed the Congressman with a 31 percent re-elect number and 75 percent name identification….
It’s the numbers missing from the polling memo that tell the real story. The initial head-to-head ballot between Shadegg and Lord is nowhere to be found. Want Shadegg’s job approval number? Won’t find it here. The favorable/unfavorable numbers for the candidates (including Lord’s name ID) are not included either.
The poll included a bonus on the presidential race that may or may not be accurate.
The survey (and memo) also showed a presidential matchup, with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) leading Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) 48 percent to 43 percent in a district President Bush won with 58 percent in 2004. If McCain is underperforming Bush by 10 points in Arizona, Republicans should brace themselves for an electoral massacre that will make 2006 look like a birthday party.
however MN-2 is not in the home state of the presidential candidate but if these numbers are true its really good. And interestingly enough is on par with a lot of the other polls in Ohio and Kansas and so forth recently this is going to be a landslide of large large proportions.
Actually the 31% re-elect number sounds pretty accurate. Shadegg was at 39% re-elect at the beginning of this campaign, and since then the challenger Bob Lord has taken him to task on everything including solar energy, the GI bill, SCHIP, and head start funding.
Shadegg is soft, and if the Lord team can keep the pressure on until November this will be one of many new democratic house seats.
Ever since his incredibly strong fundraising numbers came in, I’ve had this race on my watch list and currently rate it among the top tier races of those not already on the DCCC Red to Blue list. I expect this race to make that list rather shortly.
BUT i’m not at all; lord has run a great campaign so far; add that to all the incoming evidence(put on the front page of this site just today)we have seen here this cycle
Shadegg to change his mind and run again they must really be worried about this one.