The Texas Lyceum (6/12-20, likely voters):
Rick Noriega(D): 36
John Cornyn (R): 38
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±3.1%)
Big John is in a big world of hurt, if this is to be believed. 38% for an incumbent, with 24% undecided, spells trouble. (I haven’t heard of Texas Lyceum before, but this is an independent, not internal, poll. One caveat is that their partisan split is 32% Republican and 44% Democrat, which seems high for Texas even factoring in switches caused by the Dem primary.)
As a bonus, this poll shows McCain leading Obama in Texas by only 5, 43-38, with Barr and Nader each drawing 1.
H/t WoodyNYC.
The racial/ethnic breakdown of this poll was 54% white, 32% Hispanic, and 11% black. In 2004, the racial breakdown of voters in Texas was 66% white, 20% Hispanic, and 12% black. I have no doubt that the percentage of Hispanic voters has grown since ’04, but not by that much — so I really don’t see this poll capturing what the 2008 Texas electorate will look like. What I think this poll maybe measures is the direction Texas is moving in, and the tremendous potential for Democratic gains over the next stretch of time.
This poll looks like a mess, just like today’s Oregon poll.
This is actually all adults, not likely voters. Only 8 in 10 are registered to vote, so this is not really a look at the likely electorate.