On the heels of recent polls by PPP and Rasmussen showing Democrat Kay Hagan leading Elizabeth Dole by mid-single digits, Civitas releases a new survey of their own (9/17-20, likely voters, 8/14-17 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 41 (41)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 43 (44)
Christopher Cole (L): 5 (4)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
True, Civitas is a Republican group, but their numbers have been mostly in-line with what other reputable pollsters have told us about North Carolina this year, and I have no reason to doubt them — just like I have no reason to doubt Public Policy Polling despite their Democratic sympathies. In any case, Dole is in serious trouble.
Bonus finding: Civitas finds that the Presidential race is tied at 45-45 in North Carolina. Very nice.
How the presidential race is always found to be tied or within a couple points, but it never correlates with the senate poll. For example, IIRC the first Hagan +5 Poll had Obama and McCain tied. The second Hagan +5 Poll had McCain +3 in North Carolina. And now a Dole +3 poll has McCain and Obama tied again.
But seriously, incumbents with numbers like this rarely win.
that the D Pres. candidate would be polling closer to his R counterpart in North Carolina than Ohio, would you have believed him?
The triumverate of NC, VA, OH will all line up, along with the stars, for the 44th President of the United States…Barack Obama