FL-16: Sinking Like a Stone

The Tarrance Group for the NRCC (10/15-16, likely voters, 10/9 in parens):

Tim Mahoney (D-inc): 29 (56)

Tom Rooney (R): 55 (31)

(MoE: ±5.8%)

With numbers that bad, no wonder you’re hearing rumors about Mahoney dropping out of the race. And I don’t think would be a bad call for him — this guy has some serious personal problems that he has to deal with.

Bonus finding: Mahoney’s personal favorable rating has nosedived to 28-53.

What’s especially interesting is that Rooney was getting completely pasted even in the NRCC’s own numbers, pre-scandal. This wasn’t much of a pickup opportunity until Mahoney self-destructed.

30 thoughts on “FL-16: Sinking Like a Stone”

  1. With this lovely spectacle going on, the debacle in IL-06, failing to doing anything in NC-8th…

  2. What’s Rooney like?  Is he a good fit for the district and/or a strong candidate?  I suspect this will be a difficult seat to win back in 2010.

  3. Totally different district and candidates I know but if Mahoney was winning by such a margin before his problems broke then there is at least a chance of comparable numbers in TX-22 because of the bleak national outlook for Republicans in general.

  4. That the past two congressman for FL-16, Mark Foley (R) and Mahoney, have been involved in some kind of sex scandal. Did the NRCC do a background check on Tom Rooney before he became the candidate? Who knows?

    Mind you, at least Mahoney was involved in a scandal with actual women, and not emailing under-aged male Congressional pages with dirty talk 🙂

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