LA-Sen: Landrieu Up by 10

Rasmussen (10/22, likely voters, 9/25 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 53 (54)

John Kennedy (R): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Kennedy is inching upward (and has been since August), but will it be enough? I seriously doubt it.

14 thoughts on “LA-Sen: Landrieu Up by 10”

  1. LA has a huge Democratic registration advantage – 52-25% according to the SOS. The early voting numbers are ~56-30%, so about the same margin either way.

    Using what Rasmussen gives us about breakdown by party, even if Obama’s losing by 40 points among independents, he’s still ahead or tied.

    Even if we assume equal party ID (for reference, Democrats still had a 2-point advantage in 2004), McCain needs to be up around 40-50 points with independents to achieve the margins he is. Which makes me think that Rasmussen considerably oversampled Republicans.

    Also, it looks like Rasmussen undersampled African-Americans. Since Obama is winning 97% of their vote, and we know McCain has 77% of the white vote, the breakdown needs to be roughly 26/74%. Compared to 30/70% in reality.

    I don’t think Obama has much chance of winning LA, but these numbers bode well for Landrieu.

  2. He’s got a truly hack-worthy posting up on his blog about how he doesn’t believe this race is over and Kennedy is a great candidate and Landrieu is a librul and the Republican internal is right and all the public polls & Dem internals showing it in double digits are WRONG WRONG WRONG and there’s no more blacks in the state since Katrina and and and…

  3. the amount of negative advertising has been astounding, some of it was really over the top. Maybe it just hasn’t worked like it worked before. This poll was taken before Jindall’s reckless endorsement, and his ad for Kennedy. That should lead to a few points of positive gain for Kennedy.

  4. are also up big with new ads attacking Mary Landrieu, I noticed recently. That’s a trifecta there. And they are running a pretty hardhitting ad on the bailout. I think she’s definitely in a weaker position that she was a few days ago, especially with Jindall trying to play kingmaker.

Comments are closed.