Quinnipiac (3/10-3/15, registered voters, 1/29-2/2 in parentheses):
Lee Fisher (D): 41 (42)
Rob Portman (R): 33 (27)Lee Fisher (D): 41 (41)
Mary Taylor (R): 31 (27)Jennifer Brunner (D): 39 (38)
Rob Portman (R): 34 (28)Jennifer Brunner (D): 38 (38)
Mary Taylor (R): 31 (26)Ted Strickland (D-inc): 51 (56)
John Kasich (R): 31 (26)Ted Strickland (D-inc): 50 (54)
Mike DeWine (R): 34 (32)
(MoE: ±2.7%)John Kasich (R): 27 (22)
Mike DeWine (R): 32 (37)
Kevin Coughlin: 2 (3)Rob Portman (R): 31 (33)
Mary Taylor (R): 14 (11)
(MoE: ±4.6%)Lee Fisher (D): 18 (18)
Jennifer Brunner (D): 14 (16)
Tim Ryan (D): 12 (14)
Tyrone Yates (D): 6 (n/a)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Quinnipiac polls both the 2010 senate and gubernatorial races in Ohio in one sample (the gubernatorial race got a separate release, though); Democrats have to be fairly pleased with the results in each. There’s been some erosion in their positions since early February, but every permutation currently points to a Dem victory.
In the senate race, both Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and SoS Jennifer Brunner are basically holding steady; the gains have mostly come from a few points worth of undecideds moving to the Republicans. Brunner/Portman is the only configuration that’s polling within the margin of error. Despite the conventional wisdom that recruiting ex-Rep. Rob Portman was some sort of GOP coup, he remains largely unknown, with 67% of the sample not knowing enough about him to form an opinion. (Of course, that also means that he has a lot of room to grow, if Dems don’t quickly define him and his Bush administration links.)
The Democratic primary is also largely undefined at this point, with 46% still undecided, plus another 12% for Rep. Tim Ryan, who has announced that he won’t run and has endorsed Fisher. The entry of Cincinnati-based African-American state rep. Tyrone Yates into the race doesn’t seem to have produced any major changes.
On the gubernatorial side, while Ted Strickland’s approvals and head-to-heads have dropped a bit (56/30, down from 63/25 in early February), he’s still in positive territory, which differentiates him from, well, just about every other governor as the economic climate forces them to contemplate draconian cuts and/or tax hikes. (Voters now disapprove of his handling of the state economy 39/45, the first time he’s been negative on that measure.) With ex-Sen. Mike DeWine reportedly becoming more interested in running for state attorney general, Strickland may be left facing the seemingly weaker ex-Rep. John Kasich.
Any idea who his supporters will throw their support to? Brunner and Fisher are both pretty progressive from what I understand. Both to the left of Ryan.
She’s a great progressive and a courageous yet congenial personality. I’m looking forward to seeing her serve in the Senate.
Oh, my God… Rich Cordray would give that little shit the ass kicking of our lifetimes. It would be a thing of legend. Further along, DeWhine will see the polls and decided that K Street is the place to be.
On the other hand, there is a HUGE burnout factor amongst voters (outside of the activist ‘sphere, that is) And the state and local parties are broke. They still haven’t paid the bills from last fall and donations have just fallen off of the tabletop.
Yes, there are still groups of O’Bama supporters meeting. However, the focus seems to be more on local community good deeds, rather than on politics.
Rank and file voters here are living from paycheck to paycheck (if they still have one!) and are scared out of their wits.