With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. With the district results that I found (Senate here and Assembly here), I put in a new column, showing the margin of the 2008 presidential winner in each district, so we can clearly see what our biggest targets are.
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.
SENATE
Republicans (4)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-04 |
Sam Aanestad |
33.07% |
44.12% |
R+11.05 |
M+12.80 |
| SD-12 |
Jeff Denham |
47.46% |
33.14% |
D+14.32 |
O+17.64 |
| SD-18 |
Roy Ashburn |
31.93% |
47.63% |
R+15.70 |
M+15.00 |
| SD-36 |
Dennis Hollingsworth |
28.96% |
46.07% |
R+17.11 |
M+14.16 |
Democrats (5)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-16 |
Dean Florez |
49.67% |
33.14% |
D+16.53 |
O+21.35 |
| SD-22 |
Gilbert Cedillo |
58.98% |
14.77% |
D+44.21 |
O+58.53 |
| SD-24 |
Gloria Romero |
53.62% |
21.16% |
D+32.46 |
O+41.34 |
| SD-34 |
Lou Correa |
42.68% |
34.05% |
D+8.63 |
O+16.81 |
| SD-40 |
Denise Ducheny |
46.50% |
29.66% |
D+15.84 |
O+26.64 |
Assembly numbers are over the flip…
ASSEMBLY
Republicans (16)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-03 |
Dan Logue |
34.83% |
40.20% |
R+5.37 |
M+1.60 |
| AD-05 |
Roger Niello |
37.94% |
38.83% |
R+0.89 |
O+4.24 |
| AD-25 |
Tom Berryhill |
36.84% |
42.32% |
R+5.48 |
M+7.90 |
| AD-26 |
Bill Berryhill |
42.03% |
39.27% |
D+2.76 |
O+4.11 |
| AD-30 |
Danny Gilmore |
46.45% |
36.56% |
D+9.89 |
O+4.39 |
| AD-33 |
Sam Blakeslee |
35.86% |
40.69% |
R+4.83 |
O+1.39 |
| AD-36 |
Steve Knight |
39.55% |
38.72% |
D+0.83 |
O+0.66 |
| AD-37 |
Audra Strickland |
35.84% |
41.46% |
R+5.62 |
O+3.73 |
| AD-38 |
Cameron Smyth |
36.84% |
40.05% |
R+3.21 |
O+4.86 |
| AD-63 |
Bill Emmerson |
37.85% |
40.44% |
R+2.59 |
O+4.09 |
| AD-64 |
Brian Nestande |
36.26% |
41.61% |
R+5.35 |
O+1.79 |
| AD-65 |
Paul Cook |
37.14% |
41.06% |
R+3.92 |
M+4.12 |
| AD-68 |
Van Tran |
32.72% |
41.61% |
R+8.89 |
M+2.95 |
| AD-70 |
Chuck DeVore |
30.12% |
43.73% |
R+13.61 |
O+3.93 |
| AD-74 |
Martin Garrick |
30.88% |
41.62% |
R+10.74 |
O+2.16 |
| AD-75 |
Nathan Fletcher |
30.74% |
39.81% |
R+9.07 |
O+4.05 |
Democrats (15)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-07 |
Noreen Evans |
52.84% |
23.73% |
D+29.11 |
O+43.31 |
| AD-09 |
Dave Jones |
56.63% |
18.74% |
D+37.89 |
O+49.15 |
| AD-10 |
Alyson Huber |
39.32% |
39.43% |
R+0.11 |
O+3.91 |
| AD-11 |
Tom Torlakson |
54.24% |
22.10% |
D+32.14 |
O+40.90 |
| AD-15 |
Joan Buchanan |
40.59% |
36.14% |
D+4.45 |
O+16.55 |
| AD-20 |
Alberto Torrico |
48.62% |
20.19% |
D+18.43 |
O+42.28 |
| AD-21 |
Ira Ruskin |
47.13% |
26.81% |
D+20.32 |
O+45.90 |
| AD-23 |
Joe Coto |
51.36% |
18.97% |
D+32.39 |
O+44.45 |
| AD-31 |
Juan Arambula |
49.04% |
33.92% |
D+15.12 |
O+24.81 |
| AD-35 |
Pedro Nava |
48.21% |
27.95% |
D+20.26 |
O+35.46 |
| AD-47 |
Karen Bass |
64.95% |
11.28% |
D+53.67 |
O+71.90 |
| AD-50 |
Hector De La Torre |
61.91% |
16.23% |
D+45.68 |
O+55.86 |
| AD-76 |
Lori Saldaña |
41.92% |
26.76% |
D+15.16 |
O+34.34 |
| AD-78 |
Martin Block |
43.01% |
31.51% |
D+11.50 |
O+11.82 |
| AD-80 |
Manuel Perez |
45.25% |
36.62% |
D+8.63 |
O+20.68 |
In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:
(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70
(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75
(III) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65 (There are no open seats in these districts.)
(IV) Other open seats: 25, 68
What’s the current composition?
How far are we from the supermajority thresholds required for important stuff like passing budgets?
While he is a moderate Repub, I would of course prefer a Democrat, and if the wingnuts want to commit suicide, I think we should help them and replace him with a Dem.
This looks like it would have taken quite a bit of time to complile and especially to get the format looking so good. Thanks for the effort!
As to the substance and speaking as someone totally ignorant of California state politics, I was amazed at how many more viable pick up opportunities we have than do Republicans. The Senate seems fairly set, with one good pick up opportunity for us, but the House looks completely open for us to make many gains–12 Obama leaning districts for them to defend while we have 0 McCain leaning districts. Also interesting to me that California’s senate seats must have been heavily gerrymandered for those listed to be the “competitive” districts. What’s the prospect for legislative redistricting in 2011?