We still have 531 days until the 2010 election but the race for governor in Minnesota has already been underway for months. Seven major candidates have entered the DFL field and I continue to hear buzz about five more. Tim Pawlenty remains publicly undecided about if he will run for re-election to a third term or not.
With all that in mind KSTP commissioned a poll from SurveyUSA pitting 9 current or potential DFL candidates against Pawlenty. All announced candidates minus Steve Kelly and plus R.T. Rybak, Chris Coleman and Margaret Anderson Kelliher. It has a fairly small sample size of 552 and doesn’t take into account potential IP or other third party candidates but it’s still interesting to political junkies like me (and probably you if your reading this). It has very good news for R.T. Rybak and Mark Dayton.
In addition it’s very bad news for Tim Pawlenty. When a incumbent is under 50 percent they are considered vulnerable in politics. Three candidates hold him under that mark.
First here is a link if you want the entire poll, crosstabs and all.
47% Tim Pawlenty
43% Mark Dayton
10% Undecided
This is very good news for Dayton. His camp will use this heavily. He has a nice argument developing for his candidacy. He is the only candidate who has won statewide, he polls the best and has strong stances on the issues to boot. He’s already a household name among DFL activists and has a loyal base of support. Entenza has been making smart staff hires, campaigning hard and picking up endorsements recently so this gives the Dayton camp some much needed momentum.
47% Tim Pawlenty
42% R.T. Rybak
11% Undecided
Out of all the potential candidates Rybak is shaping up to be the strongest. Current legislators seem to be doing poorly, Gaertner and Coleman have RNC issues to deal with and Entenza, Dayton and Kelly are longtime players in statewide politics which could damage them among some. Plus he already has a statewide base of loyal suporters from campaigning extremely hard for Barack Obama and other DFL candidates in 2008. He’s running for re-election in 2009 and so can’t do much until November but I wouldn’t be suprised if he’s already taking a very hard look at running.
48% Tim Pawlenty
37% Chris Coleman
15% Undecided
Solid numbers for Coleman who seems to be making clear signals that he’s in the race but it won’t help that his fellow big city mayor is doing 6 points better then him.
51% Tim Pawlenty
37% Matt Entenza
12% Undecided
Encouraging signs for his campaign that he’s doing better then any current legislators including MAK but he still has a lot of work to do closing the gap.
50% Tim Pawlenty
36% Susan Gaertner
14% Undecided
Decent numbers for the Gaertner camp. They can point to the fact that she’s doing better then all the legislators and keeps Pawlenty to 50 percent but it won’t matter much if she can’t put together a viable endorsement campaign.
52% Tim Pawlenty
34% Tom Bakk
14% Undecided
Bakk has a slightly more influential position then Thissen which probably is why he does three points better but he’s never run for statewide office and is from the Iron Range so it’s not hugely surprising that not many people know who he is and thus tell pollsters they wouldn’t vote for him.
51% Tim Pawlenty
34% John Marty
15% Undecided
Marty was on the ballot statewide in 1994 so you’d hope he would do a little better then this. But the gap between him and Pawlenty is about half as much as how much he lost to Arne Carlson by so it’s progress I guess.
51% Tim Pawlenty
34% Margaret Anderson Kelliher
15% Undecided
Not very good news for Kelliher and will probably make her think twice about giving up the Speakership which she could probably hold for decades (she’s in her early 40s) for a risky run for governor.
51% Tim Pawlenty
32% Paul Thissen
17% Undecided
Not great numbers for Thissen but not very surprising. How many people do you think know who he is? He’s a state representative who isn’t in the leadership and has been serving for 7 years. I can’t imagine his name ID was very high.
There you have it. It is a long, long way until the election and if polls decided elections President Hillary Clinton would be sitting in the White House currently (and would be nominating Barack Obama to be Justice Barack Obama?) but this is very good news for Rybak and Dayton and not good news for MAK and the rest of the legislators. It’s interesting that Steve Kelly got left out. What’s up with that KSTP?
for Team Blue. Even amongst the lower-tier candidates there is still room for growth and no one is really out of reach. I wouldn’t be too overjoyed with Dayton or Rybak though; with only 10% undecided, most folks already have made their minds up and it will be tougher to change them (plus, Dayton and RT have done enough to piss off voters to have higher negative ratings). Don’t knock Kelliher either; she’s a smart politician, and Klobuchar proved that strong female candidates can overcome establishment GOP’ers in statewide races.
This will all be for naught though if Pawlenty chooses not to run again. Minnesota has never elected a Governor for three consecutive terms, and Pawlenty’s 2012 ambitions will certainly play a role. My money is that he bows out and focuses on a 2012 Presidential run; he’s not stupid enough to risk money, time, and his career on a close re-election. If Pawlenty is out, who will step in? Bachmann indicated she’d be interested. My guess is it would either be Jim Ramstad or State House Minority Leader Marty Seifert.
Not that it matters much but it looks like most of the undecideds voted for Obama and Franken in 2008. Take the Pawlenty/Rybak contest for example. 16% of Obama voters are undecided while only 3% of McCain voters are undecided. Once most of these voters “come home” the contest will tighten.
most people don’t know most of these candidates at all. given the margin for error it looks like bakk, marty, MAK, thissen, entenza, and gaertner have identical numbers.
rybak, coleman and dayton are slightly better since they are slightly better known.
i guess dayton could use these numbers…if he was running an actual campaign.
i really see the campaign as coming down to the big 3: rybak, coleman, MAK plus entenza (because of his $, team, and tenacity) and maybe dayton because of his name.
whoever wins the endorsement will be in a very strong position to win the nomination and i think MAK is the favorite for the endorsement 9because she’s a good speaker in both senses of the word and because she’s the only woman out of 10 candidates.
What is the feeling both amongst the general public and the DFL in terms of Dayton’s…strange…senatorial tenure. I know he seemed to lose it in some ways after 9/11 and the anthrax scares. Time named him one of the worst senators…can he (or has he) rebuilt his image?