The following is a bit of a thought experiment. Imagine a Democratic Gerrymander of Georgia that could more or less ignore the VRA, or at least go with the standard of “majority minority” rather than striving for 50%+ Black. I used Dave’s Redistricting App, with the new population estimates, creating 14 districts. I was not as aggressive as fitchfan28 and focused my efforts on the Atlanta area leaving South Georgia largely unchanged.
District 1 (Dark Blue):
Not much different from before. Jack “Pelosi is destroying families by making us work Mondays” Kingston will have no trouble here.
District 2 (Dark Green):
Also not much change. Sanford Bishop’s district continues to be racially mixed, with a narrow White majority. Perfect for a Black Blue Dog.
District 3 (Salmon):
First of several of the majority minority districts. Southern parts of Fulton County balance out some more conservative suburbs. Contains some of the Black suburbs as well.
District 4 (Red):
Heart of Atlanta and much of Cobb county. At little more White than some of the others, but still not a majority.
District 5 (Purple):
The most diverse of all the districts. Large populations of Whites, Blacks, Hispanics and Asians.
District 6 (Aquamarine):
This district is about 2/3rds White. It might be more Liberal, being located largely in Fulton and Dekalb counties, it might not be. I didn’t have political data. (Anyone familiar with Georgia care to comment?)
District 7 (Gold):
A fairly equal mix of Whites from and Blacks. Some other minorities, but not as many as the 5th.
District 8 (Light Purple):
I took away Macon, but made it up with Athens. Only after I drew the lines did I realize that Jim Marshall lives in Macon and may choose to run in the new 13th. The district is just over 60% White, so there’s enough minorities and Liberals (in Clark County) the Dems might do okay.
District 9 (Cyan):
Very Conservative and White.
District 10 (Pink):
See district 9.
District 11 (Grey):
Conservative Atlanta Exurbs and North Georgia district. Would be a good landing spot for Tom Pierce, if the 6th is too urbanized now.
District 12 (Light Green):
Not too different from the old 12th, though a little bit blacker. (Now Majority Minority)
District 13 (Periwinkle):
Whites are just under to a majority in this rural and exurban district.
District 14 (Mustard):
Another majority minority district with whites and blacks in close numbers.
Overall, 6 minority districts, which should all go to the Dems, plus Bishop’s Second, which is an easy hold. The new 8th will be a bit of a struggle but doable and potential pickup in the 6th, depending on how the numbers run. So a total of 7 – 9 districts out of 14, without any aggressive Gerrymandering.
in your 10th.
Even if this were legal, I’m not sure it would work out well for Dems. Though they would have the advantage of taking effect in a Presidential election year (when black turnout tends to be good).
that you were able to get so many majority minority districts. Having Democrats represent 7 out of 14 or even 9 out of 14 districts in Georgia would be amazing. Even better if a large number of those Democratic congressmen are minorities.
I think it could royally backfire into a 4-10 deficit. Your 12th, your 2nd, and your 5th look like they’d work. Your 6th is a loss. While I would imagine there are quite a few white liberals there (especially in the DeKalb part), they are more than drowned out by the uber-rich whites in the district. Your 4th, 14th, 8th, 3rd, 13th, and 7th could all fail with low black and youth turnout. Like you said, your 1st, 11th, 9th, and 10th are all out of reach.
would have a good chance of someday becoming a black Senator, because after a few terms they will get good at campaigning to white suburban voters.
That would be ridiculous, white soccer moms and NASCAR dads would freak being in the same district as 95 percent black neighborhoods in Lithonia, but it would be good for Democrats to have such a diverse district like that which could launch a black candidate statewide.
Your map sort of gets rid of Paul Broun because he’s from Athens/ Oconee but he could easily win your 9th.