This is my attempt at a Michigan Democratic gerrymander. Assuming they can hold the Governors mansion and win back the state senate. I looked up the political data and calculated the results for each district. My map ends up giving Peters and Schauer more Democratic districts. It most likely gets rid of Rogers, Camp, and McCotter and gives the Dems a pickup opportunity in the 2nd in an open seat or against a freshmen Republican that voted 54.6 for Obama.
District 1 – Bart Stupak(D-Menominee)
Stays Pretty much the same picks up Grand Traverse County and loses its area of Bay County
Voted 49.60-48.49 Obama
District 2 – Open/Hoekstra replacement
Loses its Republican areas to the south and picks up Bay County and some of the small counties inbetween
Voted 54.67-43.55 Obama
District 3 – Open/Hoekstra replacement
Loses Grand Rapids and picks up the surronding republican areas
Voted 57.3-40.93 McCain
District 4 – John Dingell(D-Dearborn)
The problem with my map is John Dingell doesnt live in the 4th he lives in the 14th(Conyers). So unless he retires or agrees to move the easiest solution would be to swap areas with the 11th and 14th and have Dingell run against McCotter. With the 11th, 13th, 14th expanding the new 4th takes in little of Wayne County and now takes in Hillsdale County, Lenawee County, more of Wastenaw County and some of Oakland County.
Voted 56.43-41.95 Obama
District 5 – Dale Kildee(D-Flint) vs Mike Rogers(R-Howell)
Loses Saginaw and Bay City to break up the republicans gerrymander and picks up Shiawassee County and Livingston County to balance out heavy democratic Flint
Voted 56.59-41.7 Obama
District 6 – Vern Ehlers(R-Grand Rapids) vs Fred Upton(R-St Joseph)
Switches population centers from Kalamazoo to Grand Rapids to pack republicans into the 3rd. Becomes slighty less Democratic
Voted 52.79-45.58 Obama
District 7 – Mark Schauer(D-Battle Creek)
Loses Hillsdale, Lenawee, and Eaton Counties. Picks up Kalamazoo, Cass, and St Joseph. Becomes slighty more Democratic.
Voted 53.96-44.32 Obama
District 8 – Dave Camp(R-Midland)
Loses Livingston and picks up Eaton and Saginaw to become more Democratic
Voted 58.71-39.71 Obama
District 9 – Gary Peters(D-Bloomfield hills)
Picks up Southfield loses Farmington hills to become more Democratic
Voted 58.38-40.28 Obama
District 10 – Candice Miller(R-Harrison Township)
Miller would no longer live in this district but I assume she wouldnt want to face off against Levin. Becomes slighty more republican.
50.94-47.12 McCain
District 11 – Thaddeus McCotter(R-Livonia)
Picks up Ypsilanti, Romulus, Inkster, and Farmington Hills and loses its republican parts of Oakland County.
Voted 60.44-38.02 Obama
District 12 – Sander Levin(D-Royal Oak)
Loses Southfield and picks up Sterling Heights. Becomes less Democratic
Voted 59.27-38.85 Obama
District 13 – Carolyn Kilpatrick(D-Detroit)
Stays the same but had to expand picks up some areas to the south
51.8% Black
District 14 – John Conyers(D-Detroit)
Picks up the rest of Dearborn and Taylor
52.2% Black
my first try gave it a strip of Detroit between 7 and 8 Mile, which made it around 20% African-American. And I also took away townships south of Livonia, and connected it with Ann Arbor and Wastensaw.
I think I also connected Muskegon and Kent for a district
you did make Peter’s district more Democratic in the short run, but I think it would be wise to leave Farmington hills in his district. This city has been trending Democratic very fast and there are easier ways to weaken McCotter (add, say Taylor and Dearborn Heights instead of Farmington Hills) Also re: the first, Grand Traverse is a very conservative county and it has no real history of being very Democratic like the U.P. and Northeast LP (it just barely voted for Stupak in ’98 and ’00 while he won easily everywhere else) so I would leave that out and keep at least some of Bay County because I doubt Stupak will still be in congress by 2022 so this district needs to be safe for his democratic successor. But I like this map. It would probably shake out 11-3 or more likely 10-4, I think. Nice job
you copied me, I mean seriosuly, I started writing mine yesterday and left off last evening 😛
Not sure about your central MI district, I mean you lumping in two very urban, Democratic leaning areas to try to weigh down a bunch of conservative Rural areas and you’ve made MI-01 a bit more Republican.
I’m jealous you have precise numbers. Dave doesn’t have precinct election data programmed in yet, and I merely had to guesstimate.