Redistricting Maryland: 8 Democrats (Version 2.0)

(This diary is cross-posted on the Daily Kos)

Two months ago, I posted a diary here, “Redistricting Maryland: 8 Democratic Seats”

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

I have since then worked with the map to design a plan which will make it even more likely that eight Democrats can be elected in 2012.  I must admit that the resulting map is quite gerrymandered (though not more so than the existing Maryland map).  I am opposed to highly gerrymandered redistricting in principle.  Even though the Supreme Court has clearly ruled that political gerrymandering (as opposed to gerrymandering where race is the predominant factor) is permissible, I just think that it ultimately lets some politicians decide who their voters are going to be, instead of the other way around.  However, as long as the Republicans continue to do it, there is no reason why Democrats should disarm unilaterally.  

I tried to make the new map reflective of 2010 population estimates, as different parts of Maryland have experienced varying population growth levels.  For example, the population of Baltimore City is expected to decline slightly between the 2000 and 2010 Censuses, while some outer exurban areas of Baltimore and Washington are expected to show increases of 20% or more.  The new map reflects this reality.  The map keeps intact much of the territory of the current seven Democratic representatives, while still creating an additional eighth Democratic seat.

As in my April post, the map below demonstrates that it is very possible to redistrict Maryland in a manner in which eight Democrats can be elected to Congress from the state.  I have refined the map whereby seven Democratic districts (Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8) voted for Obama by at least a 22.5 point margin.  Districts 4 and 7 remain African-American majority, as is necessary per the VRA.  (Both districts are ensured to elect an African-American Democrat, as 70% or more of the Democratic primary vote in each district is expected to be comprised of African-Americans.)  The proposed District 1 goes from one which McCain won by 18.5 points to one which Obama wins by 6.4 points; if Kratovil makes it through 2010, he will be more than safe in the new MD-1.  The proposed District 6 goes from one which McCain won by 17.5 points to one which Obama wins by 22.6 points.  In the discussion of each district (below the map) I also discuss how these new districts performed in other recent Maryland political races (2004, 2006 and 2008 elections).

Maryland Map:

Central Maryland Map:

Central Maryland Maps with precincts:

Note:  Additional supplemental maps can be found at bottom of diary.

Discussion of Individual Districts:

YELLOW – District 1:  Frank Kratovil (home: Queen Anne’s County)

Current District:  Obama 39.8%; McCain 58.3% (McCain + 18.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 52.3%; McCain 45.9% (Obama + 6.4)

Proposed District:  Kerry 47.9%; Bush 51.1%

Proposed District:  Cardin 45.6%; Steele 52.7%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 44.5%; Ehrlich 54.4%

This district continues to encompass the entire Eastern Shore.  The new district proceeds through parts of northern Harford and Baltimore Counties (although it completely excludes the State Senate District of 2008 GOP Candidate Andy Harris) and into very Democratic territory on the western side of Baltimore County.   The district also includes the Annapolis area in Anne Arundel County.  Interestingly, both the Obama-McCain and Kerry-Bush percentages of the new district correspond very closely to the national average.

Major communities in proposed MD-1 district: all of Eastern Shore; Harford County – Bel Air (part); Baltimore County – Randallstown, Lochearn, Milford Mill, Owings Mills, Reisterstown, Woodlawn (part); Anne Arundel County – Annapolis.

GRAY – District 2:  Dutch Ruppersberger (home: Cockeysville)

Current District:  Obama 59.8%; McCain 38.3% (Obama + 21.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.8%; McCain 37.5% (Obama + 23.3)

Proposed District:  Kerry 55.3%; Bush 43.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 52.3%; Steele 45.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 51.0%; Ehrlich 47.8%

The new district continues to include most of the communities currently in MD-2, including parts of Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore Counties, as well as Baltimore City (the proposed district includes all areas of Baltimore City currently in MD-2 and also adds the area around Hopkins/Bayview Hospital on the eastern side of the city.)  The new district expands into parts of Prince George’s and Howard Counties.

Major communities in proposed MD-2 district: Baltimore City (part); Anne Arundel County – Brooklyn Park, Glen Burnie (part), Severn, Fort Meade, Odenton, Maryland City; Harford County – Bel Air (part), Fallston, Joppatowne, Edgewood, Aberdeen, Havre de Grace; Baltimore County – Cockeysville, Towson (part), Rosedale, Middle River (part), Essex (part), Dundalk (part); Prince George’s County – Laurel; Howard County – Savage-Guilford.

ORANGE – District 3:  John Sarbanes (home: Towson)

Current District:  Obama 58.8%; McCain 39.2% (Obama + 19.6)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.5%; McCain 38.0% (Obama + 22.5)

Proposed District:  Kerry 55.4%; Bush 43.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 57.3%; Steele 40.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 52.4%; Ehrlich 46.2%

Like MD-2, the new MD-3 remains quite similar to the current district.  Most of the Baltimore City, Baltimore County and Howard County areas remain intact.  Additional territory in Baltimore Co., Howard County and Montgomery County is added.  The Anne Arundel County part of the current district is detached.

Major communities in proposed MD-3 district: Baltimore City (part); Baltimore County Towson (part), ParkvilleCarney, Pikesville, Timonium-Lutherville, Perry Hall, White Marsh, Arbutus, Lansdowne; Howard County – Elkridge, Ellicott City (part), Columbia, North Laurel; Montgomery County – Burtonsville, Colesville, Aspen Hill (part), Olney, Laytonsville.

RED – District 4:  Donna Edwards (home: Fort Washington)

Current District:  Obama 85.1%; McCain 14.2% (Obama + 70.9)

Proposed District:  Obama 70.7%; McCain 28.0% (Obama + 42.7)

Proposed District:  Kerry 64.0%; Bush 34.8%

Proposed District:  Cardin 60.7%; Steele 37.9%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 61.7%; Ehrlich 37.3%

Proposed District African-American: 51%

The new MD-4 continues to encompass much of the same Prince George’s County communities currently in the district.  The Montgomery County part of the current district is detached and is substituted by parts of Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties; very Republican precincts from both counties are added, and the overall Democratic percentage of the district goes down a lot, but still stays at over 70% Obama (there is completely no need to have a district with an Obama advantage of 85-14 !).

Major communities in proposed MD-4 district: Prince Goerge’s County – Fort Washington (part), Oxon Hill, Temple Hills, Andrews AFB, Forestville, Largo-Kettering, Mitchelville, Glenarden, Bladensburg, Riverdale, Hyattsville (part), College Park (part), Langley Park, Adelphi, Beltsville; Anne Arundel County – Crownsville, Gambrills, Davidsonville (part), Millersville, Severna Park, Pasadena-Lake Shore, Riviera Beach, Glen Burnie (part), Ferndale, Linthicum; Baltimore County – Sparrows Point/Edgemere, Dundalk (part), Essex (part), Middle River (part).

PURPLE – District 5:  Steny Hoyer (home: Mechanicsville)

Current District:  Obama 65.4%; McCain 33.3% (Obama + 32.1)

Proposed District:  Obama 62.7%; McCain 36.0% (Obama + 26.7)

Proposed District:  Kerry 54.7%; Bush 44.5%

Proposed District:  Cardin 53.7%; Steele 45.0%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 54.3%; Ehrlich 44.7%

This district changes relatively very little.  It continues to encompass all of the three Southern Maryland counties, south Anne Arundel Co. and “outer” Prince George’s Co.  Parts of Upper Marlboro as well as Crofton and parts of the Annapolis and Broadneck peninsulas are added, while Laurel and adjoining parts of northern Prince George’s are taken out of the district.  The district becomes slightly less Democratic, but it still has a very healthy 26.7 point Obama advantage over McCain.

Major communities in proposed MD-5 district: All of Southern Maryland – Calvert County, Charles County, St. Mary’s County; Prince Goerge’s County – Fort Washington (part), Clinton, Upper Marlboro, Bowie, Glenn Dale, Greenbelt; Anne Arundel County – Riva, Edgewater, Davidsonville (part), Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Parole/Annapolis, Arnold, Cape St. Claire, Crofton.

GREEN – District 6:  Roscoe Bartlett (home: Frederick)

Current District:  Obama 40.2%; McCain 57.7% (McCain + 17.5)

Proposed District:  Obama 60.3%; McCain 37.7% (Obama + 22.6)

Proposed District:  Kerry 54.3%; Bush 44.7%

Proposed District:  Cardin 54.5%; Steele 44.1%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 51.6%; Ehrlich 47.3%

The new district includes most of Frederick County, parts of Carroll County, as well as a good chunk of Montgomery County.  The new territory in Montgomery is the factor that dramatically changes the political composition of this district, as some of the most Democratic parts of the county are added to MD-6.

Major communities in proposed MD-6 district:  Frederick County – Frederick, Middletown, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, New Market, Mt. Airy; Carroll County – Taneytown, Manchester; Montgomery County – Damascus, Clarksburg, Germantown, Montgomery Village, Aspen Hill (part), Wheaton-Glenmont, White Oak, Silver Spring (part), Takoma Park (part).

BLUE – District 7:  Elijah Cummings (home: Baltimore City)

Current District:  Obama 78.8%; McCain 19.9% (Obama + 58.9)

Proposed District:  Obama 67.0%; McCain 31.5% (Obama + 35.5)

Proposed District:  Kerry 60.8%; Bush 37.9%

Proposed District:  Cardin 55.2%; Steele 42.8%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 55.2%; Ehrlich 43.1%

Proposed District African-American: 51%

The new MD-7 is not that different from the current district.  The Baltimore City portion of the district remains wholly intact, and, in fact, is expanded to include a few additional African-American majority neighborhoods (including the Pimlico and Coldspring areas in the northwestern part of the city).  The Catonsville and Woodlawn areas in western Baltimore County as well as a good portion of Howard County also remain with MD-7. New, more Republican areas in northern Baltimore County, and parts of Carroll and Harford Counties are added to the district.

Major communities in proposed MD-7 district:  Baltimore City (part); Baltimore County – Catonsville, Woodlawn (part); Harford County – Jarretsville; Carroll County – Westminster, Hampstead, Eldersburg, Sykesville; Howard County – Ellicott City (part).

PINK – District 8:  Chris Van Hollen (home: Kensington)

Current District:  Obama 73.9%; McCain 24.7% (Obama + 49.2)

Proposed District:  Obama 62.0%; McCain 36.2% (Obama + 25.8)

Proposed District:  Kerry 56.9%; Bush 41.6%

Proposed District:  Cardin 58.3%; Steele 40.4%

Proposed District:  O’Malley 55.0%; Ehrlich 44.0%

The new district includes most of Montgomery County, parts of Frederick and Prince George’s Counties, as well as all of the three Western Maryland counties.  The district becomes somewhat less Democratic, but the new MD-8 still has some of the state’s best partisan stats (4th best Obama percentage, after the two African-American majority districts, and just behind MD-5; 3rd best Kerry percentage; 3rd best O’Malley percentage – just slightly behind MD-7; and 2nd best Cardin percentage – behind only MD-4 and ahead of both MD-3, Cardin’s home district, and the new MD-7 !).

Major communities in proposed MD-8 district:  All of Western Maryland (Garrett County, Allegany County, Washington County); Frederick County – Brunswick; Montgomery County – Silver Spring (part), Takoma Park (part), Kensington, Chevy Chase, Bethesda, Potomac, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Poolesville; Prince George’s County – Hyattsville (part), Mt. Rainier, Cheverly, Seat Pleasant, Landover.  

Note:  for the entire plan above, the boundaries of only three precincts had to be changed slightly in order to make the map work: 26-7 and 26-11 in Baltimore City, and 4-11 in Baltimore County.

So that’s my Maryland Redistricting Plan – Version 2.  I welcome comments and discussion (if possible, could someone calculate the “PVI’s” for my “new” districts based on the numbers above; I’m not being lazy, just not exactly sure what the current definition is).

Maps of Presidential Performance 2008:

Baltimore City:

Btw, the Baltimore City precinct from the map above that voted 100% for Obama is 15-12, part of the Walbrook neighborhood !  (close-up map is below).  In addition, 47 other precincts in Baltimore City had Obama percentages of 99.0 to 99.9, while 48 voted for Obama at a 98.0 to 98.9% rate (there were also 32 precincts in Prince George’s County that had Obama percentages of between 98.0 and 98.9, and five that voted 99.0 to 99.9% for Obama).  I grew up in Baltimore and currently reside in Silver Spring, and am very proud to live in the great state of Maryland !