I'll try

1. Kansas
2. Hawaii
3. Oklahoma
4. Tennesee
5. California
6. New York
7. Pensylvania
8. Wyoming
9. Minnesota
10.Florida
11. Wisconsin
12. Georgia
13. Rhode Island
14. Colorado
15. Ohio
16. Michigan
17. Alaska
18. New Mexico
19. Alabama
20. Iowa
21. Illinois
22. South Carolina
23. Nevada
24. Massachusetts
25. Connecicut
26. Arkansas
27. Arizona
28. Nebraska
29. Texas
30. Maine
31. Vermont
32. New Hampshire
33. Utah
34. Maryland
35. Oregon
36. South Dakota
37. Idaho

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 02:19:22 AM CDT

I won't try

but I really disagree with New York at #6. You must be figuring that Paterson will actually run as the Democratic candidate in the general election. In the extremely unlikely event that happened, I think he would lose. Wyoming is much more likely to flip to the Republicans than New York!

---

by: Pan @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 02:26:08 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Paterson is running

he's running and it doesnt look likely that Cuomo will get in. I also think Giuliani is more likely to get in than he was b4.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 02:46:56 AM CDT

Patterson is running

and Souzzi or someone else is going to come in without permission from the party establishment and take him out in the primary.

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 02:57:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Alright, I wasted my time

1) Kansas - Sebelius built democrats a house of cards!
2) Hawaii - Only reason Kansas is higher is the Rs actually have a candidate here
3) Rhode Island - The GOP is not holding, just does the seat go D or I?
4) Wyoming - Freudenthal needs to make his court filing soon for this to drop
5) Tennessee - Slow Democratic erosion (check out the state legislature)
6) Nevada - Fast Republican erosion, and governor 10%
7) California - Newsom, Brown, whichever; both should beat the eBay lady
8) Oklahoma - I maintain this is going to be the tightest gov race through e-day
9) Minnesota - No T-Paw, but everyone else is running
10) Arizona - Brunner seems to be doing a fine job of getting negative press, coming right back to team blue, the question is how many other offices we nab on the way.
11) Florida - Sink's behind now, but should be ahead by e-day
12) Michigan - unpopular governor, highest national unemployment, even more unpopular republican party, let's see how those balance out
13) Georgia - This should also be very close on e-day
14) Texas - Holding pattern until the candidates are actually running
15) Pennsylvania - The Dems seem to be holding off on anything for now, come back in 2 months
16) South Carolina - Thank you Sanford for breathing life into this state
17) Alabama - Open seat, can Sparksmania overcome?
18) Wisconsin - Let's see if Doyle gets sucked into the Peace Corps before a call is made, the GOP opponents seem competent
19) New York - Patterson will not be the Democratic nominee, even if he runs for it.
20) Massachusetts - The Patrick campaign platform "My opponent is Romney all over again!"
21) Maine - Baladacci is not popular, but he's not running and there is no real visible candidates anywhere. Come back in 2 months
22) Ohio - "Hi my name is John Kasich, and I like Free Trade!" See ya.
23) Vermont - The dems MIGHT be waking up
24) Alaska - Palin/No Palin. Either way the Rs seem to be in control.
25) Iowa - The Rs are really going to turn this into a referendum on Gay Marriage?
26) Oregon - If the Ds are looking at strong liberals, you know it's locked down
27) Illinois - Blago is gone, forever. Quinn is scaring off Madigan. It's off the radar.
28) South Dakota - No Herseth, no race.
29) Colorado - Am I missing something here, or does McInnis just smell of desperation/old news/retread? Feels like the guy Udall beat and the guy Ritter beat in '06. I cant tell the three apart.
30) Maryland - Maybe Steele wants his old job back or a promotion?
31) New Mexico - Solidified its status as a solid blue state in '08
32) Connecticut - Maybe someone will challenge Rell?
33) Arkansas - What Arkansas state GOP?
34) Nebraska - Dems are building a NE-2 farm team first
35) New Hampshire - No liberal rebellion for signing gay marriage, no threat
36) Idaho - It's Idaho!

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 03:16:15 AM CDT

Oh yeah, Utah special election

Uhm . . . Utah! It's so important I forgot it! So . . . near the bottom.

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 03:18:10 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm actually really worried

about New York. Why no one wants to challenge Paterson, I don't know. Any decent Dem should be able to beat him in the primary, what with those atrocious approval ratings. Do they really want to sacrifice the governor's mansion again after finally winning it back in 2006?

---

by: Nathaniel90 @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:09:12 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh boy

I'll have to get back to you on this! :)

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 05:49:01 AM CDT

Everyone seems to be forgetting NJ and VA

---

by: admnok @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 05:55:00 AM CDT

They're hard to assess

Virginia is going to be really tight. McDonnell and Deeds went head to head for Attorney General four years ago and the margin of victory was just over 320 votes -- almost as small as Franken's margin of victory over Coleman. Now they're facing off in the gubernatorial race again, and I predict that it will be similarly tight. Ultimately I predict Deeds will be able to pull it off.

New Jersey is going to be a very interesting race to watch -- and participate in, since I'm a New Jerseyan. Right now Chris Christie has a ten-point lead over Gov. Corzine, but it's unclear whether he can maintain that lead once the election comes nearer. NJ is a typically blue state, after all, and the Republicans haven't won a statewide race here since 1997. Dissatisfaction with Corzine is rampant (I'm also very unhappy with his administration), but Christie is a far from perfect candidate. To top it off, moderate independent Chris Daggett could be a big factor in this race if he raises matching funds. It will be interesting to see how this one pans out -- right now, I really don't know which of the three men will win.

---

by: NJCentrist @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 13:28:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Here Goes

D's pick up 6 - HI, CA, NV, MN, FL, AZ.
R's pick up 4 - KS, WY, TN, OK.
I's pick up 1 - RI.

30 D, 19R, 1I at the end of the day.  

It is amazing how few safe incumbents there are. Certainly less than 10 out of 39 races.  Could be a real free for all.

1. Kansas - No prominent Dem likely to step up.

2. Rhode Island - Definitely a flip - possibly to Chafee (I), which would probably still be good news for D's.

3. Wyoming - Gonzo unless Freudenthal sues, which I doubt.

4. Hawaii - Dkos poll shows Abercrombie/Mufi looking solid.

5. California - Brown in a runaway.

6. Tennessee - State seems to be slipping away from D's.

7. Oklahoma - Ditto.  Edmundson a strong candidate though.

8. Nevada - Is Rory Reid the right candidate?  D bench is huge here.  Gibbons is toast, whether in primary or general.

9. Minnesota - D lean, but Ramstad would be tough to beat.

10. Florida - Sink has ability to win Southern D's in Florida, which is huge.  She's twangy!

11. Arizona - Brewer not too popular, and may not even run.  Goddard would be tough to beat, and seems to be in.

12. New Jersey - Corzine in deep s@#%.  I think he'll win though.  Christie is too conservative for NJ.

13. Georgia - Barnes a top-notch recruit.  I'm seeing a close race with Oxendine.

14. Virginia - Deeds in a squeaker.  Deeds seems like the type of candidate who can win the Appalachian D's and the blue areas of VA.

15. Michigan - At the end of the day, Cherry holds on.

16. Pennsylvania - I like Onorato here over Corbett.

17. Wisconsin - Will Doyle vacate?  New D candidate would probably be just as good as the unpopular Doyle.

18. Vermont - I love that some fairly big-time D's have stepped up here.  Will Douglas run again?  Will the third party spoil the fun?  

19. Alaska - I'm thinking Palin vacates.  Berkowitz puts up a tough fight, but maybe comes up a little short.

20. Alabama - Davis romps in primary, but likely comes up a little short in the general.  Davis will vote with the Republicans on every bill until November 2010 and then fortunately he will no longer vote on any bills.

21. Iowa - Culver mildly unpopular.  R's need to find a better candidate than the ones who are in.

22. Colorado - Ritter doing his best to lose his base with anti-union stances.  R's need to do better than McInnis.

23. New York - Paterson will lose - that is a given.  He must be beaten in a primary.  Where are you, Andrew Cuomo?

24. South Carolina - Did Sanford damages R brand enough in SC?  Polling actually looks somewhat good for D's here.

25. Ohio - Strickland will probably be OK, although he is mildly unpopular just like practically every other governor.

26. Massachusetts - Patrick has not earned a clear primary.  If he is the candidate, D's will have to sweat it a little.

27. Illinois - Quinn will be just fine if he is the nominee.  Madigan will clobber all comers 2-1 if she is.

28. South Dakota - Only competitive if Herseth runs.

29. Oregon - Love the D candidates here.  Prominent R's seem likely to stay away.

30. Maine - I like former AG Rowe to hold on to this seat.  Astonishing lack of big candidates on both sides.

31. New Mexico - Polls show Denish romping biggest R's.

32. Connecticut - Rell has not announced her intentions.  She beats down if she runs.  I love the solid challengers lining up though.

33. Maryland - D lean in MD is bigger than ever.  I'm thinking Ehrlich stays away.

34. Texas - Competitive R primary.  Either R will beat down Schieffer.  Running a race against a big-time R in Texas is too expensive.  Focus will be on Senate seat.

35. Utah - Hey, it's Utah.  Matheson unlikely to take a chance on this race given safe house seat.

36. Idaho - Otter has not confirmed candidacy yet, but I assume he will run and win.

37. Arkansas - Beebe one of only a few truly safe incumbents.

38. New Hampshire - Lynch a shoo-in.

39. Nebraska - No sweat for Heineman.

---

by: spiderdem @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 06:13:59 AM CDT

roundup

Almost garunteed party switch

1. Kansas: No way no how
2. Rhode Island: D or I
3. Nevada: Republicans don't seem to have a credible candidate for anything in this state
________________________________________________
Probably a party switch but not a garuntee

4. Tenessee: I don't think either party have top tier recruits in this one so probably favors republicans.
5. Oklahoma: I still think this one could fall to the tipping point mark but time will tell
6. Minasota: I think republicans could field a good candidate but they will have a lot of work to do here.
_____________________________________________________
Close Race
7. New Jersey: probably a republican pickut but still will be pretty close
8. Wyoming: a special case, will either go to the top or bottom of the list depending on what Freudenthal decides to do.
9. Michigan: Bad economy will make this race interesting.  If the economy gets better I think this race could fall.
10. Florida: a close race but if democrats put money on this race it should go up on the list.  I want to see fundraising numbers for Sink and her oponent to see wehre this one goes.
11. California: Meg Whittman is raising a ton of money and the dems on this ticket are both lacking but California is pretty blue and Aarnold is not helping the GOP.  But Money is the great equalizer.
12. Virginia: I think this one is about as close to a coint toss as you can get.  I think Deeds will pull it out but that is only based on hunch.
_______________________________________________________
Races that could be interesting but probably won't be

13. Arizona: Jan Brewer hasn't had a great showing so far so this could hurt her.  
14. Georgia:  Dems have a great or horrible candidate.  We will see which one Barnes turns out to be
15. Pennsylvania: Dem hold most likely
16. Iowa: Bad numbers for Culver but I don't think it will matter.
17. Vermont: Hopefully Douglas will not run again.  But even if he does there are some good dems in the race.
18. Wisconsin:  Bad numbers for Doyle but I doubt it will matter
19. South Dakota:  This race will rise or fall on what the dem represenative decides to do.
20. Texas: if Perry wins this race becomes a bit more interesting but still not much.  If KBH wins thenthe dems have zero shot.
21. Utah: Herbert will probably not have Huntsman like aproval and if Mathison runs then this race goes up... if not then it goes down.

I don't see any of the other states being competative at this time.

---

by: admnok @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 06:29:25 AM CDT

Here's my two cents worth

1. Kansas--without Parkinson, Brownback has a lock
2. Rhode Island--blue state, though Chafee may pull it out
3. Tennessee--red flip, but who will win not clear yet
4. Wyoming--unless Freudenthal runs, this one is gone
5. Hawaii--either Abercrombie or Mufi will beat the Duke
6. California--Rep money can't pull this one out
7. Oklahoma--good Dem candidates, but state too red
8. Minnesota--will be some rebound from T-Paw and Norm
9. Florida--Alex Sink is a solid candidate
10. Virginia--this one is a true tossup
11. Nevada--who knows what will happen here
12. New Jersey--Corzine may prevail, but it will be close
13. Pennsylvania--depends on who runs
14. Michigan--another tossup, but I think Cherry may be OK
15. Arizona--if Terry Goddard gets in, this could flip
16. Alabama--good Dem candidates, but tough state
17. Georgia--Roy Barnes gives us legitimacy if he runs
18. South Dakota--only if Stephanie gets in
19. Texas--if KBH and Perry beat each other up enough
20. Oregon--Dem candidate probably OK
21. Wisconsin--Doyle should pull this out
22. Colorado--Ritter probably OK, weak Rep bench
23. New York--if Cuomo stays out, could be close
24. Iowa--Culver should be OK
25. Illinois--either Quinn or Madigan should prevail
The other fourteen races have little or no likelihood of flipping.

---

by: jimmich @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 09:35:59 AM CDT

You missed one...

South Carolina. Given all that has happened, it can't be ruled out any longer.    

---

by: vicupstate @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 11:17:21 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Too much uncertainty, but here it is:

Tier 1: Likely Takeover
1. Wyoming (no Dem bench)
2. Kansas (strong GOP, no strong Dem)
3. Hawaii (decent GOP and strong Dem but very blue)
4. Rhode Island (switch from GOP to Independent with Chafee)
5. Nevada (with Gibbons, slightly lower without)
6. California
7. Oklahoma (strong GOP and Dem but very red)
8. Minnesota
9. Tennessee

Tier 2: Toss-Up
10. New Jersey
11. Florida
12. Virginia
13. Michigan

Tier 3: Likely Retention
14. Alabama (strong Dems)
15. Arizona
16. Wisconsin
17. Pennsylvania
18. Georgia
19. South Carolina
20. Texas
21. Iowa
22. Ohio
23. Massachusetts

Watch list:
* South Dakota (Tier 1 with Herseth)
* New York (Tier 2 if Cuomo does not challenge Paterson)
* Alaska (Tier 3 without Palin)

---

by: bpfish @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 11:51:50 AM CDT

Waaaay too early

Kansas
Oklahoma
New Jersey
Hawaii
Tennessee
California
Nevada
Florida  
Rhode Island
Michigan
Colorado
Iowa  
Massachusetts
Virginia
Pennsylvania
New York
Wisconsin
Georgia
Wyoming
Ohio
Minnesota
Arizona
South Carolina
Illinois
Alabama
Texas
Maine
Vermont
Oregon
South Dakota
Alaska
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Nebraska
Maryland
Connecticut
Arkansas
Utah
Idaho

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 13:02:40 PM CDT

Corzine is in the deepest doggie doodoo

I can now say for certain that if this was literally any other state I would be calling it for the GOP. Because it is New Jersey and because Corzine can afford to saturate the airwaves with negative ads to tear Christie down there is an outside chance of retention but I am becoming less and less bullish.  

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 13:07:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

My list

With the list broken down into subsections:

Likely to flip:

1) Rhode Island
2) Kansas
3) Oklahoma
4) Wyoming (if term limited)
5) Hawaii
6) New Jersey
7) Minnesota
8) Nevada
9) Tennessee
10) California

Toss Ups:

11) Virginia
12) Pennsylvania
13) Florida
14) Michigan
15) Arizona
16) Colorado
17) Wisconsin

Lean Retention

18) Georgia
19) Ohio
20) New York
21) Vermont
22) Massachusetts
23) Alabama
24) Iowa

Safe seats

25) Texas
26) South Carolina
27) Oregon
28) Maine
29) Alaska
30) Illinois
31) New Mexico
32) Maryland
33) Arkansas
34) Idaho
35) Utah
36) Connecicutt
37) South Dakota
38) New Hampshire
39) Idaho
40) Nebraska

 

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

---

by: Kyle98632 @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 16:28:30 PM CDT

My take on the governors

Almost certain to switch
_______________________

1. Rhode Island (R to D or I)
2. Kansas (D to R)

Likely to  switch
_________________

3. Hawaii  (R to D)
4. Wyoming (D to R)

Lean to switch
________________

5. Oklahoma (D to R)
6. Nevada  (R to D)
7. Tennessee  (D to R)
8. California (R to D)
9. Minnesota (R to D)

Toss-up
________________

10. Michigan (D to ?)
11. Virginia (D to ?))
12. New Jersey (D to ?)
13. Florida (R to ?)
14. Arizona (R to ?)
15. Vermont  (R to ?)

Lean to retention
________________

16. Georgia (R)
17. Wisconsin (D)
18. Ohio (D)
19. Massachusetts (D)
20. Pennsylvania  (D)
21. Alabama (R)
22. South Carolina (R)
23. Texas (R)
24. Maine (D)

Likely retention
________________

25. Oregon (D)
26. New York (D)
27. Colorado (D)
28. Illinois (D)
29. Iowa (D)
30. Alaska (R)
31. New Mexico (D)
32. Connecticut (R)
33.  Utah (R)
34. South Dakota (R)

Almost certain retention
________________

35. Maryland (D)
36. Arkansas (D)
37. Idaho (R)
38. New Hampshire (D)
39. Nebraska (R)

---

by: terje @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 16:43:06 PM CDT

Utah & South Carolina

Utah... Needs an "*"  
We need to qualify the likihood that this fella wont even make it thru their nominating process.

Likewise with South Carolina
I think we need to put up a Babka, everyone pick your date and time for Sanford's resignation.  He's twice been blessed with MJ's passing and the holiday weekend to push himself off the news - is he finally learning to shut his mouth?

---

by: inhoc75 @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 00:58:55 AM CDT

We're screwed in 2010

unless the economy starts to recover, it's going to be a bloodbath for governors. I think I have all of them in here:

1. Kansas (open seat held by Mark Parkinson - D)
2. Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D; assuming Freudenthal doesn't overturn term limits)
3. Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
4. Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
5. Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R; R to D or R to Chaffee - I)
6. Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)
7. New Jersey (Jon Corzine - D)
8. New York (David Paterson - D; if Paterson is the nominee)
9. California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
10. Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
11. Minnesota (open seat held by Tim Pawlenty - R)
12. Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)
13. Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
14. Florida (open seat held by Charlie Crist - R)
15. Arizona (Jan Brewer - R)
16. Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)
17. Virginia (open seat held by Tim Kaine - D)
18. Maine (open seat held by John Baldacci - D)
19. Massachusetts (Deval Patrick - D)
20. Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
21. Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)
22. Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
23. Iowa (Chet Culver - D)
24. Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
25. South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)
26. Illinois (Pat Quinn - D)
27. Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
28. South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)
29. Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
30. Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
31. Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)
32. New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)
33. Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
34. Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
35. Texas (Rick Perry - R)
36. Utah (Gary Herbert - R)
37. Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
38. New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)
39. Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 09:04:20 AM CDT

39 states and 3 territories

Near-definite takeover:
1. Kansas - solidly Republican state.  
2. Rhode Island - solidly Democratic state.  Carcieri was an anomaly.
3. Hawaii - solidly Democratic state.  The real battle should be the Democratic primary.
4. Nevada - Jim Gibbons has a 10% approval rating and the Republicans have no bench.  The Democrats should take this one easily.

Probable takeover:
5. Tennessee - I don't doubt that the Republicans can win this increasingly Republican state.
6. Oklahoma - I doubt the Democrats have much of a shot.
7. Wyoming - Unless Freudenthal can run for a third term.
8. Minnesota - Burnout from Pawlenty and the Coleman ordeal will cause this one to switch to Democratic.
9. Northern Mariana Islands - Dissatisfaction with Fitial is rampant.  Will switch to Republican or Independent.
10. California - Depends on whether Meg Whitman mounts a credible campaign.

Toss-up:
11. New Jersey - The Corzine administration is viewed in a very poor light.  The question is whether Chris Christie can pull off a win.
12. Florida - A swing state with a governor who's retiring to run for Senate.  Enough said.
13. Virginia - Expect a razor-thin margin of victory here.
14. Michigan - Normally blue Michigan may vote Republican if the economy stays terrible, as unemployment in Michigan skyrockets.
15. Guam - Camacho is retiring and it's difficult to say who will replace him. Expect fireworks.
16. Georgia - Democrats will campaign hard if a big name runs.  
17. Arizona - If Brewer seeks a full term, she's in trouble.  If she retires, who knows?

Probable retention:
18. Wisconsin - Could be close but probably will be a Democratic hold.
19. Vermont - Vermont is very liberal, but will the Democrats actually challenge Douglas vigorously?
20. New York - Paterson will probably lose in the primary, but some strong Republicans are eyeing this race.  
21. South Carolina - It all hinges on how Sanford's scandal plays out.
22. Colorado - Ritter isn't especially popular but the Republican bench is weak.  
23. Pennsylvania - Rendell is retiring and the Republicans are the offensive.  
24. Texas - Texas is very Republican but it's too soon to tell.
25. Alaska - Depends on whether Palin runs again.
26. Alabama - Artur Davis will charge hard to win this open seat, but might fall short yet.
27. Iowa - Probably a Democratic hold, but it all depends on the Republican nominee.
28. Ohio - Strickland should be fairly safe.  
29. Maine - It's a blue state, but there are basically no candidates yet.
30. South Dakota - Only a couple of Democrats could win this race...you know who I'm talking about.  (No, not George McGovern!)
31. Massachusetts - Although Massachusetts is about as liberal is you can get, Patrick isn't very popular.  

Near-definite retention:
32. Connecticut - Democrats will be focusing on holding on to the embattled Chris Dodd's Senate seat, not challenging a popular moderate Republican governor.  
33. Oregon - Expect an easy Democratic hold.
34. Illinois - Republicans will be focusing on the Senate race, especially if Mark Kirk runs.  Whether the nominee is Quinn or Madigan, the Democrats are safe.  
35. Utah - The real contest is in the Republican primary.
36. New Mexico - Lt. Gov. Denish will win in a landslide.
37. Maryland - A major Republican challenger is unlikely.  
38. Arkansas - Considering there's no Republican bench in Arkansas, I think the Democrats will roll in 2010.
39. New Hampshire - Lynch will cruise to a fourth term in liberal New Hampshire.
40. Nebraska - Don't expect Nebraska to elect a Democratic governor in 2010 or any time in the near future.
41. Idaho - Obviously a Republican hold.
42. U.S. Virgin Islands - No, really, there is a Republican Party in the USVI!  They just don't hold any elective offices....

---

by: NJCentrist @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 17:34:15 PM CDT