Congressional races 2010: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware

Previous diaries:

Today: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware

Summary:

Colorado has 7 representatives: 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans.  The only seat that might be in danger is Markey’s in CO-04

Connecticut has 5 representative, all Democrats

Delaware has 1 representative, a Republican, and its a potential gain for the Democrats.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: CO-01

Location This oddly shaped district includes metro Denver, southern suburbs like Glendale, south to Sheridan and Cherry Hills Village, and northeast in a stair step pattern map

Cook PVI D+21

Representative Diana DeGette (D)

VoteView rank 93/447

First elected  1996

2008 margin 72-24 over George Lilly

2006 margin 80-20 (against a Green)

2004 margin 73-25

Obama margin 74-24

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 30% Latino (49th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CO-02

Location Boulder, and points west, in the Rockies.  Also the exurbs of Denver map

Cook PVI  D +11

Representative Jared Polis

VoteView rank 187.5/447

First elected  2008

2008 margin 62-34 over Scott Starin

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin NA

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents Scott Starin is running again.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Polis won easily in 2008, should be safe

District: CO-03

Location Western Colorado (bordering UT), and east along the southern edge (bordering NM), includes Durango and Pueblo and Aspen map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative John Salazar (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 207/447

First elected  2004

2008 margin 61-39 over Wayne Wolf

2006 margin 62-37

2004 margin 51-47

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Martin Beeson

Demographics Relatively rural (39%, 95th place) few Blacks (0.7%, 23rd least) or Asians (0.5%, rank NA) but 21.5% Latino (69th most)

Assessment This is a Republican district, but Salazar, a moderate Democrat, seems safe.  It’d be nice to have a more progressive rep, but better a blue dog than a red Repub.  

District: CO-04

Location Shaped like a backwards F, this is eastern CO (bordering KS and NE) and moves a bit west to Fort Collins (bordering WY) and the northwestern suburbs of Denver map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Betsey Markey (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 56-44 over Marilyn Musgrave

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents  Two confirmed Republicans and a bunch of possibles (see Wiki

Demographics 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment This is a Republican district; Musgrave was an awful person; even if Markey runs, it will probably be hard-fought.

District: CO-05

Location Central CO, including Colorado Springs map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Doug Lamborn (R)

VoteView rank 439.5/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 60-37 over Hal Bidlack

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Current opponents None declared.  Possible primary challenge

Demographics More veterans than all but 4 districts, and the 33rd most Republican district.

Assessment A long shot

District: CO-06

Location Exurbs of Denver, and a large area south and east of Denver map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Mike Coffman (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 60-40 over Hank Eng

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents Two declared Democrats:

David Canter

and

John Flerlage

I don’t have a strong sense of either of them.

Assessment This is a Republican district; if Coffman runs, it’s a longshot.  Even if he does not, it will be tough.

District: CO-07

Location More of suburban Denver, and a long strip eastward map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Ed Perlmutter (D)

VoteView rank 203.5/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 63-37 over John Lerew

2006 margin 55-42

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Brian Campbell

Demographics Not unusual in what I track

Assessment Of the Democrats in CO, this is probably the  least safe, but the Republicans don’t even have a declared candidate

District: CT-01

Location Shaped like a backwards C, including Hartford and suburbs, running north to tha border of MA, and looping south and then west to almost form a circle map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative John Larson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 119.5

First elected  1998

2008 margin 71-26 over Joe Visconti

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 39-60

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on things I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-02

Location Eastern CT, bordering RI, MA and Long Island Sound, including Storrs and New London map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Joe Courtney (D)

VoteView rank 137/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 65-32 over Sean Sullivan

2006 margin 83 votes

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004  44-54

Current opponents Matthew Daly and Daria Novak

Demographics 31st fewest people in poverty (5.8%)

Assessment One close race, one easy victory.  I won’t say “safe” but it looks good.  Novak’s website is like a joke (see the Wiki for a link), with no  issues and some pix of her at a tea party. Daly has a more professional website, but he’s a wingnut, not suited to the district.

District: CT-03

Location New Haven and areas around it map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Rosa DeLauro

VoteView rank 93/447

First elected  1990

2008 margin 77-20 over Bo Itshaky

2006 margin 76-22

2004 margin 72-25

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 42-56

Current opponents Itshaky is running again.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-04

Location NYC suburbs – Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Bridgeport, bordering NY and Long Island Sound map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Jim Himes (D)

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 51-48 over Chris Shays

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 30th richest district (median income = $67K)

Assessment Himes won a close one over the incumbent Shays; how safe this is probably depends on the opponent.

District: CT-05

Location Western CT, bordering NY and MA, but going inland to New Britain and Meriden map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Chris Murphy (D)

VoteView rank 142/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 59-39 over David Capiello

2006 margin 54-44

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-42

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Justin Bernier

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Probably safe.

District: DE-AL

Location Delaware.  

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Mike Castle (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 250/447

First elected  1992

2008 margin 61-38 over Karen Hartley Nagle

2006 margin 57-39

2004 margin 69-30

Obama margin 62-37

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Current opponents John Carney and Scott Spencer; neither website has much on the issues.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Castle used to win more easily, and he’s getting older, and has been ill, and Delaware is more and more Democratic…. we have a shot!

6 thoughts on “Congressional races 2010: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware”

  1. Perlmutter is definitely safer than Markey or Salazar. That district was drawn for him (literally, it was called the “Perlmutter district” when it was drawn, but he didn’t run for it until 2006).

    I don’t think Himes will have any trouble getting re-elected. Murphy’s district is more Republican, he had a strong (for New England) Republican challenger, and still won by 20.

    Castle won’t lose while he’s in the House, because he and Carper are buddies and the “Delaware way” means friendship overrides party. An open seat would be an almost-guaranteed pickup, though, especially with Carney running.

  2. Either Castle retires or runs for Senate; either way, he sounds less likely he’s returning to the House as weeks pass (recent comments and turning down leadership posts point to that).  That will lead to a pretty interesting primary for Team Blue: New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, State Sen. Bethany Hall-Long, and former Wilmington City Council President Ted Blunt could all make bids as they’ve expressed interest in the past.

  3. CO-01 isn’t that “oddly shaped.” It is the city of Denver, plus some close-in suburbs. The arm extending to the north east is Denver airport, which is in the city limits but, of course, is virtually unpopulated.

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