Today: Illinois
Summary:
Illinois has 19 representatives, 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans. Vulnerable are
IL-06 (R) esp. if Roskam runs for senate.
IL-10 (R) which is now open
IL-11 (D) where Halvorsen is a freshman in a swing district
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: IL-01
Location Partly the south side of Chicago, partly suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 34
Representative Bobby Rush (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 50.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 86-14 over Antoine Members
2006 margin 84-16
2004 margin 85-15
Obama margin 87-13
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents There is a primary and then Antoine Members is running again (no site)
Demographics More Blacks than any other district (65.3%), 13th most Democratic, per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe
District: IL-02
Location South side of Chicago and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 36
Representative Jesse Jackson Jr (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 14
First elected 1995
2008 margin 89-11 over Anthony Williams
2006 margin 85-12
2004 margin 88-12
Obama margin 90-10
Bush margin 2004 16-84
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 4th most Blacks (62%), 13th most Democratic (tied with the IL-01)
Assessment Safe
District: IL-03
Location Southwestern Chicago map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Dan Lipinski (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 192.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 73-21 over Michael Hawkins
2006 margin 77-23
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Michael Hawkins
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: IL-04
Location Possibly the oddest shaped district in the USA (and that’s saying something!) this one…looks like an ordinary district with a big piece missing in the middle. It includes the Latino districts on the north side, wanders west, has a string-wide bit going south, and then includes the Latino districts on the south side. map
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Luis Gutierrez (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 45
First elected 1992
2008 margin 81-11 over Daniel Cunningham
2006 margin 86-14
2004 margin 84-12
Obama margin 85-13
Bush margin 2004 21-79
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Ann Melichar, who lost in 2006
Demographics 5th most Latinos (74.5%) (3 of the 4 higher are in TX), 5th fewest veterans (4.3%)
Assessment Safe
District: IL-05
Location North side of Chicago, from the lake west to O’Hare map
Cook PVI D + 19
Representative Mike Quigley Not confirmed
First elected 2009
VoteView rank NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 73-26
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents Kevin White (who lost in 2006)
Demographics 23rd fewest veterans (6.7%)
Assessment Safe
District: IL-06
Location Western suburbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Peter Roskam (R) May run for Senate
VoteView rank 381
First elected 2006
2008 margin 58-42 over Jill Morgenthaler
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 12th fewest people in poverty (4.3%), 30th highest median income ($63K)
Assessment Unclear. If Roskam runs for Senate, all bets are off; even if he runs her in IL-06, a strong Democrat could take it. This one bears watching.
District: IL-07
Location Chicago’s Loop and nearby map
Cook PVI D + 35
Representative Danny Davis (D) May run for Cook County Pres.
VoteView rank 20.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 85-15 over Steve Miller
2006 margin 87-13
2004 margin 86-14
Obama margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents If Davis leaves, a bunch of Democrats will vie for this safe seat.
Demographics 16th most Blacks (61.6%), 20th most people in poverty (24%) (but median income is moderate – $40K)
Assessment safe for Democrats.
District: IL-08
Location North of Chicago to the WI border, including Schaumburg map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Melissa Bean (D)
VoteView rank 226
First elected 2004
2008 margin 60-40 over Steve Greenberg
2006 margin 51-44 (remainder “moderate” party)
2004 margin 52-48
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 28th highest income ($63K)
Assessment After two close races, Bean seems to be safe.
District: IL-09
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI D + 20
Representative Jan Schakowsky (D)
VoteView rank 23
First elected 1998
2008 margin 75-22 over Michael Younan
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin 76-24
Obama margin 72-26
Bush margin 2004 32-68
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 35th fewest veterans (8%), 37th most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (mostly 12.3% Asians)
Assessment Safe
District: IL-10
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago, along Lake Michigan map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Mark Kirk (R) Running for Senate
VoteView rank NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents
Assessment It’s wide open. Confirmed Democrats include:
Michael Bond who describes himself as a “fiscal conservative, social moderate, and strong environmentalist”
and Elliot Richardson whose site is pretty much a moderate Democrat’s, but several others are considering a run. This should be a tight race. The Cook PVI is a bit off, because IL gave a big native son effect to Obama.
District: IL-11
Location Shaped like a T, with the middle of the T in Ottawa, the bottom in Bloomington, the eastern end in Kankakee, and the western end in rural IL map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Debbie Halvorson (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 58-34 over Marty Ozinga
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Adam Kinzinger, Henry Meers, and David McAloon
Demographics 39th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks
Assessment Unclear, but Halvorsen has already raised $300K.
District: IL-12
Location Southwestern IL, bordering MO and a tiny bit of KY, including Carbondale and East St. Louis map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Jerry Costello (D)
VoteView rank 189
First elected 1988
2008 margin 72-25 over Timmy Richardson
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: IL-13
Location Southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Judy Biggert (R)
VoteView rank 293
First elected 1998
2008 margin 54-44 over Scott Harper
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Scott Harper is running again. His website could use some more info on his postions.
Demographics 9th wealthiest district (median income = $72K), 2nd fewest in poverty (2.9%)
Assessment Harper was 10 points behind in a Democratic year, with Obama’s coattails. I wish him luck, but right now, it doesn’t look too hopeful
District: IL-14
Location From the far western part of Chicagoland, west almost to the IA border in northern IL map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Bill Foster (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 228
First elected 2008
2008 margin 57-43 over Jim Oberweis
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Ethan Hastert and Jeff Danklefson
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment Foster, a conservative Democrat, fits this district well. He should be OK.
District: IL-15
Location Eastern central IL, bordering IN, centering on Urbana-Champaign map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Tim Johnson (R) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 247
First elected 2000
2008 margin 64-36 over Steve Cox
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 59-41
Current opponents David Gill
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot, Gill has lost to Johnson at least twice.
District: IL-16
Location Northwestern IL, bordering WI and IA, including Rockford map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Don Manzullo (R)
VoteView rank 345
First elected 1992
2008 margin 61-36 over Robert Abboud
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Bob Abboud is running again
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: IL-17
Location A strange shaped district in southwestern IL, bordering IA and MO, including Moline and extending eastward almost to Springfield
map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Phil Hare (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 151
First elected 2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Bobby Schilling
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Probably safe.
District: IL-18
Location Shaped like a backward C, centering on Peoria in central IL map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Aaron Schock (R)
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 59-38 over Coleen Callahan
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Carl Ray (this site needs some help, and he even asks for help on the site).
Demographics 75th most Whites (90%)
Assessment Probably going to be tough
District: IL-19
Location Southern IL, from suburbs of Springfield south and east to the IN and KY border map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative John Shimkus
VoteView rank 307
First elected 1996
2008 margin 64-33 over Dan Davis
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics
Assessment Long shot
I highly doubt Roskam will enter the senate primary and I unfortunately don’t see a Dem capable of beating him. IL-10 could be one of the hottest races in the country, but outside of that, there’s just not a whole lot to see in terms of House races.
Is indeed a strong candidate, but to say that no Dem would be able to beat him is way over the top. This is Illinois we’re talking about.
I’d love to see an opponent take out Schock in IL-18, but I doubt that will happen. He’s terrible.
We can launch a half-way serious bid against Manzullo? I’m not under the impression that it would be easy, but he’s pretty damn conservative yet keeps getting free passes in what seems like a rather moderate district. Do we have any base here?
While the 3rd district is a pretty safe Democratic district, the current Congressman Dan Lipinski deserves to be taken out in the Democratic primary.
Lipinski is a member of the Blue Dog caucus, and is too conservative to be representing a strongly Democratic northern district.
He is anti-choice, anti-stem cell, and otherwise socially conservative (not necessarily a career killer in a Chicago-area district filled with tons of Polish, Latino, Irish, and other ethnic Catholic voters).
He railed against the inclusion of food stamp increases in the stimulus bill (and then voted “present” when the bill finally passed, claiming that the bill didn’t include enough transportation projects and had too much social spending).
He is one of the Democrats whose support for strong health care reform is somewhat questionable -he has said he supports a public option, but still stands with the other Blue Dogs in raising concerns about the legislation.
Despite representing a district with a growing Latino population (21% in 2000, undoubtedly much higher by now), he has taken conservative positions on immigration reform.
And there is continuing resentment in the district over the way he got his seat in the first place. In 2004 his father was the incumbent in the district, and after winning the Democratic primary announced his retirement. Lipinski Sr then manipulated the party selection process to make sure he was replaced as the nominee by his son (who at that time was a professor in Tennessee). His father is currently a lobbyist for railroads — and there have been suggestions that he was hired expressly to influence his son, who is a key player on transportation issues in the House.
In 2008 he was held to 53% (against divided opposition of 3 challengers) and in 2006 to 55% (against 2 challengers).
A strong progressive challenger with roots in the district could beat Lipinski in a primary — but I’m not aware of anyone planning to run next year (and given the early Illinois primary and filing deadline, a candidate would need to emerge very soon to mount an effective challenge.)