Congressional races 2010: MN, MS, MO, MT

Previous diares

Summary:

 MN has 8 reps: 5 D, 3 R

 MS has 4 reps: 3 D, 1 R

 MO has 9 reps: 4 D, 5 R

 MT has 1 rep, a Repub.

Possibly vulnerable:

  MN-03 (R) MN-06 (R)

  MO-09 (R) (maybe)  

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: MN-01

Location The southern part of MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative Tim Walz (D)

VoteView 190

First elected 2006

2008 margin  63-33 over Brian Davis

2006 margin  53-37

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-47

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-02

Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities  map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative John Kline (R)

VoteView 397

First elected 2002

2008 margin  57-43 over Steve Sarvi

2006 margin  56-40

2004 margin  56-40

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)

Assessment  This district is becoming more D, but maybe not quickly enough for 2010.  Plus, Kline has raised 333K already.

District: MN-03

Location Suburbs of the twin cities  map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Erik Paulsen (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  49-41 over Ashwin Madia, remainder to David Dillon (INP), who looks pretty progressive.

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-46

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  6th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%),  80th fewest Blacks (3.8%)

Assessment  This one looks possible; I think most of the 11% that went to Dillon would go Democratic.  

District: MN-04

Location  St. Paul and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative Betty McCollum (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 77

First elected 2000

2008 margin  69-31 over Ed Matthews

2006 margin  70-30

2004 margin 57-33

Obama margin 64-32

Bush margin 2004 34-57

Current opponents Ed Matthews

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-05

Location map

Cook PVI D + 23

Representative Keith Ellison (D)

VoteView 11

First elected 2006

2008 margin  71-22 over Barb White

2006 margin  56-21

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 74-24

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  40th most Democratic

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-06

Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border  map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Michelle Bachmann (R)

VoteView 399

First elected 2006

2008 margin  46-43 over El Tinklenberg, remainder to Bob Anderson.  It’s hard to say who Anderson hurt – he says he’s a ‘conservative alternative to Bachmann’. Bachmann did run more behind McCain (7 points) than El behind Obama (2 points).

2006 margin  50-42 over John Binkowski

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents El Tinklenburg and Maureen Reed (site being worked on)

Demographics  53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment  Bachmann is vulnerable.  She’s insane.  But she’s already raised $600K.  On the other hand, Reed has raised $230K.  For a challenger, that’s impressive.  I have no figures for Tinklenburg.

District: MN-07

Location  Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada  map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Collin Peterson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 214

First elected 1990

2008 margin  72-28 over Glenn Menzie

2006 margin  70-26

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment  Safe.  OK, Peterson is a very conservative Democrat; still, he wins easily in a Republican district, without using up much money.

District: MN-08

Location map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative James Oberstar (D)

VoteView 107

First elected 1974

2008 margin  68-32 over Michael Cummins

2006 margin  64-34

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004  46-53

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment  Safe

District: MS-01

Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo  map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Travis Childers (D)

VoteView 239

First elected 2007 (replaced Wicker)

2008 margin  54-44

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)

Assessment  Safe.  Childers, one of the most conervative Democrats in the House, wins here.  Easily.  

District: MS-02

Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA  map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Bennie Thompson (D)

VoteView 45

First elected 1993

2008 margin  69-31 over Richard Cook

2006 margin  64-36

2004 margin  58-41

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2%, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment  Safe.  

District: MS-03

Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, to Starkville, in the northeast.  Borders both LA and AL map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Gregg Harper (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  63-37 over Joel Gill

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents Joel Gill

Demographics  18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%

Assessment  Long shot.

District: MS-04

Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf  map

Cook PVI R + 20

Representative Gene Taylor (D)

VoteView 219

First elected 1989

2008 margin  75-25 over John McKay

2006 margin  80-20

2004 margin 64-35

Obama margin 32-67

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    64th poorest (median income = $33K); 21st most Republican for POTUS.  I am not sure, but I think this is the largest difference between Obama vote (32%) and a Democrat in the House (75%).  At minimum, 43% of people voted for McCain and Taylor.

Assessment  Safe.

District: MO-01

Location St Louismap

Cook PVI D + 27

Representative William Lacy Clay

VoteView 39.5

First elected 2000

2008 margin  Unopposed

2006 margin  73-25

2004 margin 75-23

Obama margin 80-20

Bush margin 2004 75-25

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   24th most Black (49.7%), 27th most Democratic

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-02

Location  A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Todd Akin (R)

VoteView 412

First elected 2000

2008 margin  62-35 over Bill Haas

2006 margin  61-37

2004 margin 65-35

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: MO-03

Location  Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Russ Carnahan (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 153

First elected 2004

2008 margin  66-30 over Chris Sander

2006 margin  66-32

2004 margin  53-45

Obama margin 60-39

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-04

Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City  map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Ike Skelton (D)

VoteView 208

First elected 1976

2008 margin  66-34 over Jeff Parnell

2006 margin  68-29

2004 margin  66-32

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 62nd most Republican

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-05

Location Kansas City and suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Emmanuel Cleaver (D)

VoteView 67

First elected 2004

2008 margin  64-36 over Jacob Turk

2006 margin  64-32

2004 margin  55-42

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 40-60

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-06

Location  Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Sam Graves (R)

VoteView 382

First elected 2000

2008 margin  59-37 over Kay Barnes

2006 margin  62-36

2004 margin  64-35

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Barnes looked like a strong candidate; that she got less than 40% is not a good sign.

District: MO-07

Location map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Roy Blunt (R) Retiring

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin  NA

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 35-63

Bush margin 2004 67-32

Current opponents There are no confirmed Democrats, but several confirmed Republicans running in this strongly R district (see the wiki

Demographics   86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%), 31st most Republican

Assessment  This looks like a long shot for any Democrat

District: MO-08

Location   Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR.  map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative JoAnn Emerson (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 265

First elected 1996

2008 margin  71-26 over Joe Allen

2006 margin  72-26

2004 margin  72-27

Obama margin 36-62

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 51st most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: MO-09

Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Blaine Lutekemeyer (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  50-47 over Judy Baker

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    31st most rural (54.2%)

Assessment  Not impossible, but if we couldn’t win it as an open seat, it’s going to be tough to win against an incumbent

District: MT-AL

Location Whole state map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Denny Rehberg (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 304

First elected 2000

2008 margin  64-32 over John Driscoll

2006 margin  61-36

2004 margin  65-34

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Current opponents Dennis McDonald and Tyler Gernant

Demographics    68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment  Rehberg is popular, but Obama got 47% here.  

8 thoughts on “Congressional races 2010: MN, MS, MO, MT”

  1. I really like it when you talk about all the upcoming house elections. I wanted to point out that the 2004 Bush margin was 37%-62%, not 34%-57%. Good job though.

  2. There’s no way R+20 and similar districts should ever be called “safe.” You never know when irate Republican voters may choose to vote against someone they like, because they’re from the wrong party. Remember when Democrats did that in Rhode Island and Iowa (Senator Lincoln Chafee and Representative Jim Leach)?

    Also, re: MN-03, you can’t discount the Independence Party in Minnesota or assume they won’t run again and take a decent number of votes. It doesn’t matter if the Democratic candidate would have won most of those votes, unless there is no Independence Party candidate in the next election to accomplish the same thing again.

    As for MN-06, I’ll believe Bachmann is vulnerable if she ever actually loses. Underperforming in a R+7 district and winning by 3 doesn’t necessarily equal “vulnerable” to me. Of course, I hope you and all the other liberal hopers are right, but no way is this a top-tier pickup opportunity, in my opinion; second-tier at best.

    Disclaimer: Opinions are like a–h—s, and all that. 🙂 And thanks as always for all the work you put into this. I think your glasses are just a little too rose-colored, that’s all.

  3. Since this is a statewide seat, it is relevant that Democrats now hold both US Senate seats and the Governorship.  Still, if Rehberg wants to run, he is likely to win.

    If this were an open seat or if Denny runs into scandal or gaffes something good could happen.  Conrad Burns killed his political chances (barely) with his very big mouth.

Comments are closed.