Previous diares
Summary:
NE has 3 reps: all R
NV has 3 reps: 2 D, 1 R
NH has 2 reps: both D
NJ has 13 reps: 8 D, 5 R
NM has 3 reps: All D
Possibly vulnerable:
NE-02 (R) (a little)
NV-03 (D) (a little)
NH-01 (D) (a little)
NH-02 (D)
NJ-03 (D)
NJ-07 (R)
NM-02
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: NE-01
Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha. Borders MO and IA map
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)
VoteView 267
First elected 2004
2008 margin 70-30 over Max Yashrin
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 54-43
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 36-64
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)
Assessment Long shot
District: NE-02
Location Omaha and suburbs map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Lee Terry (R)
VoteView 373
First elected 1998
2008 margin 52-48 over Jim Esch (D)
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin 61-36
Obama margin 50-49
Bush margin 2004 39-60
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Possible. NE-02 wen narrowly for Obama, and this is a possible pickup.
District: NE-03
Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS map
Cook PVI R + 24
Representative Adrian Smith (R)
VoteView 371
First elected 2006
2008 margin 77-23 over Jay Stoddard
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 30-68
Bush margin 2004 75-24
Current opponents Rebekah Davis (this website needs help!)
Demographics 33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 9th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: NV-01
Location Las Vegas map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Shelley Berkley Not confirmed
VoteView 180
First elected 1998
2008 margin 68-28 over Kenneth Wegner
2006 margin 65-31
2004 margin 66-31
Obama margin 64-34
Bush margin 2004 42-57
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 55th most Latinos (28.2%)
Assessment Safe
District: NV-02
Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Dean Heller (R)
VoteView 384
First elected 2006
2008 margin 52-41 over Jill Derby (remainder split)
2006 margin 50-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 57-41
Current opponents There’s a primary, and then Paul Reeves (I couldn’t find a website, but he’s on Facebook) is running and others considering.
Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)
Assessment Possible. The 2008 race wasn’t exactly decisive.
District: NV-03
Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Dina Titus (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 47-42 over Jon Porter
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 55-43
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot are considering.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment A little vulnerable. Winning with under 50% of the vote is less than superlative.
District: NH-01
Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)
VoteView 134
First elected 2006
2008 margin 52-46 over Jeb Bradley
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents At least two Republicans: Frank Guinta and Robert Bestani.
Demographics 55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment Vulnerable, but perhaps less so than in 2008. Shea-Porter, never a huge fund raiser, has got $180K COH.
District: NH-02
Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Paul Hodes (D) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 47-52
Current opponents A whole bunch of people considering (see the Wiki). Confirmed Democrats include: Ann McLane Kuster (more developed site is in the works) and Mark Fernald. Both websites paint fairly progressive portraits.
Demographics 57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).
Assessment An open seat is never safe.
