Redistricting Upstate New York

I made this map assuming New York will lose one seat, all incumbents will win in 2010 and Republicans will hold NY-23. I chose to assume Republicans would hold the 23rd district because it seemed easier to redistrict out the 23rd district than the 26th.  

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NY-19 Hall Obama McCain Total
Current 19th 50.7% 46.2%  
Saratoga County 2151 1987 4217
Washington County 12741 12533 25714
Rensselaer County 39753 32840 73976
Columbia County 17556 13337 31403
Dutchess County 71060 59628 132246
Putnam County 21613 25145 47206
Total 164874 145470 314762
New 19th 52.4% 46.2%  

With slow population growth and redistricting out the 23rd district, districts had to move East and North. Since I started in the West and making it more Democratic Hall’s district changed a lot but Dutchess and Putnam Counties account for over 50% of the district which are in his district now.

NY-20 Murphy vs Scozzafava Obama McCain Total
Current 20th 50.7% 47.7%  
St Lawrence County 23706 16956 41223
Franklin County 10571 6676 17495
Clinton County 20216 12579 33312
Essex County 10390 7913 18590
Warren County 16281 15429 32206
Schenectady County 38611 29758 69765
Saratoga County 54494 50868 107008
Total 174269 140179 319599
New 20th 54.5% 43.9%  

The 20th’s new Make up is 40.9% from the old 20th, 37.7% from the old 23rd, and 21.4% from the old 21st. Every county voted for Obama.

NY-21 Tonko Obama McCain Total
Current 21st 58.1% 40%  
Lewis County 4986 5969 11129
Jefferson County 18166 20219 38847
Herkimer County 12904 14619 27176
Hamilton County 1225 2141 3408
Fulton County 9695 11709 21800
Montgomery County 9080 10711 20168
Ostego County 13570 12026 26094
Schoharie County 6009 8071 14381
Albany County 93937 50586 147110
Total 168762 136051 310113
New 21st 54.4% 43.9%  

Pickes up area from the old 23rd and 24th to the North and West becomes less Democratic. Albany County makes up about half of the district.

NY-22 Hinchey Obama McCain Total
Current 22nd 59.2% 39.3%  
Delaware County 9462 10524 20384
Greene County 9850 12059 22287
Sullivan County 16850 13900 31153
Ulster County 52539 32527 86461
Orange County 69913 60951 132233
Total 158614 129961 292518
New 22nd 54.2% 44.4%  

Becomes more compact and less Democratic by losing its finger that goes through Binghamton and to Tompkins County.

NY-23 Massa Obama McCain Total
Current 29th 48.2% 50.5%  
Monroe County 101751 82413 186379
Ontario County 17431 15978 33816
Wayne County 9803 13009 23150
Yates County 4890 5269 10264
Seneca County 7422 7038 14725
Schuyler County 3933 4542 8600
Chemung County 18888 19364 38693
Tioga County 10172 12536 23085
Steuben County* 5951* 8398* 14535*
Total 180241 168547 353247
New 23rd 51% 47.7%  

The numbers for the 23rd and 26th are not exact numbers because I could not find political data for Steuben County so I split up the numbers based on population. I would assume Corning is less repulbican than Steuben County on a whole, but since I dont know the area and couldnt find information on it I just split Steuben up evenly.

The 23rd picks up more of the Rochester exurbs and loses its strong republican areas in the Southwest. Monroe County now makes up about half of the district.

NY-24 Arcuri Obama McCain Total
Current 24th 50.3% 48%  
Cayuga County 16536 13398 30463
Cortland County 11861 9678 21897
Broome County 47204 40077 88707
Chenango County 10100 10337 20847
Madison County 14692 14434 29774
Oneida County 32627 34555 68237
Tompkins County 29826 11927 42472
Total 162846 134406 302397
New 24th 53.9% 44.4%  

After his close call in 2008 making Arcuri’s district safer was one of my main goals. Picks up the rest of Tompkins and Broome Counties making it more Democratic.

NY-25 Maffei Obama McCain Total
Current 25th 55.7% 42.6%  
Wayne County 8381 9230 17829
Onondaga County 129317 84972 218194
Oswego County 24777 23571 49249
Oneida County 10879 14701 26069
Total 173354 132474 311341
New 25th 55.6% 42.5%  

Loses its area in Monroe County and parts of Wayne County. Picks up Oswego County and parts of Oneida County. Stays almost the exact same politicaly.

NY-26 Lee Obama McCain Total
Current 26th 46.4% 52.2%  
Niagara County 26003 27267 54148
Orleans County 1758 2714 4550
Monroe County 12813 15385 28593
Genesee County 10762 15705 26866
Wyoming County 6379 10998 17665
Livingston County 13655 16030 30112
Chatauqua County 29129 28579 58762
Cattaraugus County 14307 17770 32588
Ontario County 7762 9193 17186
Allegany County 7016 11013 18386
Steuben County* 11197* 15805* 27353*
Total 140781 170459 316181
New 26th 44.5% 53.9%  

Lee would now live in the 27th but I assume he would run in the safer 26th. Becomes more republican after losing its areas in Erie County and picking up most of the heavy republican areas from the 23rd.

NY-27 Higgins Obama McCain Total
Current 27th 54.2% 44%  
Erie County 191229 125711 321941
New 27th 59.4% 39%  

Loses Chautauqua County and becomes more Democratic by picking up the rest of Buffalo.

NY-28 Slaughter Obama McCain Total
Current 28th 68.5% 30.3%  
Erie County 65070 53104 119985
Niagara County 21300 19081 41014
Orleans County 4856 6994 12024
Monroe County 92661 46355 140630
Total 183887 125534 313653
New 28th 58.6% 40%  

I kept the general earmuff shape of the district the same to allow the 23rd to pick up more of Monroe County. I also kept it pretty safe considering Slaughter would be 93 on election day 2022 most likely creating an open seat in the next decade. I also drew Slaughter out of her own district but I did it mainly to make it easier to calculate the results it wouldnt much diffrence to draw an finger out to Fairport like there is now.

6 thoughts on “Redistricting Upstate New York”

  1. I think what you really may be setting up here is Scozzafava vs. Tonko. Of course, she would find it rather hard to “run against Albany.”

    I worry about Arcuri in the interim. . .

  2. Especially on not splitting municipalities, which is hard to do. I like the creativity on John Hall’s district. I think he might appreciate that, as his new district plays we  to his environmentalism and isn’t dominated by rich suburbs.

    I’m working on an all Democratic Upstate that doesn’t look like a blatant gerrymander. It splits Buffalo in 2. I’ve shortened the Hinchey district’s “finger” but I’d like to get rid of it, and I appreciate the way you did it.

  3. Not to do with the redistricting itself, but, as a matter of curiosity, would it be possible for the rep for number 21 [Albany] to drive from one end of his district to the other in winter time?

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