No time wasted here. My intention was to create a 7-4 map at best. Boucher may be in trouble, but there’s not much you can do to help him. Wolf will probably be safe until he retires, but his district is turning blue fast. Nye and Perriello (especially Nye) get much more favorable districts, and Connolly, Scott, and Moran relax in safe districts.
VA-01 (teal, Rob Wittman – R) – Wittman’s district is reconfigured to stretch from the Northern Neck (eastern edge) to the West Virginia border, taking in the exurbs of Northern Virginia along the way. Safe Republican district.
VA-02 (dark green, Glenn Nye – D) – I excised the Republican portions of Virginia Beach, added all of Norfolk and minority-heavy parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk. The district is 35% black now and probably voted pretty strongly for Obama, I’d guess in the high-50s.
VA-03 (dark blue, Bobby Scott – D) – Not much changed here. Removed Norfolk, added Petersburg and some more territory around Richmond. 53% black.
VA-04 (purple, Randy Forbes – R) – Pretty much all the population here is Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, and Chesterfield. The district is solidly Republican now.
VA-05 (red, Tom Perriello – D) – The heavily-Republican southwestern part of the district is removed, and instead it stretches both down southeast to the Greensville/Emporia area and northeast to Caroline/Essex/King & Queen, both Democratic areas. Also included most of Lynchburg, not a heavily Democratic city but friendlier territory than the Bedford area. District probably voted for Obama in the low-50s. Now 27% black.
VA-06 (light green, Bob Goodlatte – R) – Picked up the aforementioned Bedford area, and lost Lynchburg and the Democratic parts of Roanoke. Safe Republican.
VA-07 (yellow, Eric Cantor – R) – Instead of stretching up almost to NoVa, the district now spreads east to the Jamestown/York/Williamsburg historic triangle. Sorry, Williamsburg.
VA-08 (grey, Jim Moran – D) – Alexandria, part of Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe D. Interestingly, this district is only 54% white.
VA-09 (magenta, Rick Boucher – D) – Poor Rick Boucher, can’t do much for him. Added the Democratic parts of Roanoke and snaked up to Bath County, so Creigh Deeds could give it a try in the future if he felt like it.
VA-10 (light blue, Frank Wolf – R) – Wondering about the population growth in NoVa? Well, this district now consists solely of Loudoun, Prince William, Clarke, and a sliver of Fairfax. Probably won by Obama with around 55%, Wolf would be able to hold it but it would be a tossup (slightly Dem-leaning) in an open seat.
VA-11 (light purple, Gerry Connolly – D) – western Fairfax, Falls Church, part of Arlington, Manassas/Manassas Park and one or two precincts of Prince William. Safe Dem seat, probably 60%+ for Obama.
VA-01: You’ve taken out the Colonial Triangle around Jamestown, Williamsburg and Yorktown. There has developed a tradition of sorts that the 1st district contains this area and that it’s not just Virginia’s 1st District but America’s 1st District as well.
You could just switch the numbers between the 7th and the 1st.
VA-02: I don’t know if Nye should be rewarded with a safer district. Although by 2012 he might not be around.
VA-03: Politically, Scott has more of a base in the Peninsula instead of Richmond and might not support a plan that shifts the district toward Richmond. Might set him up for a primary challenge.
VA-04: No comment.
VA-05: A little bit of a gerrymandering monster. But without the more populated white Republican suburbs I can understand how much it has to expand to get up to size.
VA-06: No comment.
VA-07: See renaming note on the 1st.
VA-08: No comment.
VA-09: No comment.
VA-10: No comment.
VA-11: No comment.
If I were to do any tweaks, I might try to strengthen VA-10 at the expense of VA-08, but I like what you’ve done.
What is the point of creating a partisan D map like this when there is zero chance the GOP assembly will pass this?
Without the VRA I created a 9D-2R map:
so that if Creigh Deeds loses and Boucher retires there, then Deeds would have a place to go.
Is there any way to increase the minority representation here? You’ve decreased it to help Nye, which is reasonable, but could you put some whiter areas elsewhere? Are there are minority pockets in adjacent R districts to pick up? Cantor’s district?