Previous diaries
Summary:
SC has 6 reps: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats
SD has 1 rep: A Democrat
TN has 9 reps: 4 Republicans and 5 Democrats
Possibly vulnerable:
SC-01 (R)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from AOL
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: SC-01
Location Almost all of coastal SC, bordering NC and the Atlantic, including Charleston map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Henry Brown (R)
VoteView 317
First elected 2000
2008 margin 52-48 over Linda Ketner
2006 margin 60-38
2004 margin 88-12 (vs. a Green)
Obama margin 42-56
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents A primary and then possibly Robert Dobbs(others are considering)
Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 78th most Blacks (20.9%)
Assessment At least possible; 2008 was close
District: SC-02
Location Southern SC, stretching north to the middle of the state, bordering GA and the Atlantic, including Columbia map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Joe Wilson (R)
VoteView 404
First elected 2001
2008 margin 54-46 over Robert Miller
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Robert Miller is running again.
Demographics 70th most veterans (15.1%), 60th most Blacks (26.2%)
Assessment Might be possible, Miller wasn’t that far back in 2008. But not likely.
District: SC-03
Location Northwestern SC, bordering GA map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Gresham Barrett (R) retiring to run for governor
VoteView 430
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 35-64
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Current opponents A bunch of Republicans are running; the only confirmed Democrat is Jane Dyer
Demographics 49th most rural (49.7%), 80th most Blacks (20.5%), 36th most Republican
Assessment Pretty sure to be Republican
District: SC-04
Location Northern SC, bordering NC map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Bob Inglis (R)
VoteView 402.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 60-37 over Paul Corden
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 70-29
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents There is a big Republican primary, but no confirmed Democrat.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track.
Assessment Long shot
District: SC-05
Location map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative John Spratt (D)
VoteView 198.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin 62-37 over Albert Spencer
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 35h most rural (53.3%), 80th fewest Latinos (1.8%)
Assessment looks pretty safe
District: SC-06
Location Southeastern quarter of SC, bordering the Atlantic, excluding Charleston map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative James Clyburn (D)
VoteView 67
First elected 1992
2008 margin 68-32 over Nancy Harrelson
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 40th most rural (52.0%), 17th lowest income (median = $29K) 66th fewest Whites (40.3%), 14th most Blacks (56.7%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment Safe
District: SD-01
Location The whole state map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Stephanine Herseth Sandlin (D)
VoteView 215
First elected 2004
2008 margin 68-32 over Chris Lien
2006 margin 69-29
2004 margin 53-46
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-38
Current opponents Thad Wasson is the only confirmed Republican, others are considering
Demographics 58th most rural (48.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%), 66th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 8.1% Native Americans).
Assessment Safe
District: TN-01
Location Eastern TN, bordering VA and NC map
Cook PVI R + 21
Representative Phil Roe (R)
VoteView 394.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 72-25 over Rob Russell
2006 margin 61-37
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 29-70
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 71st most rural (44.6%), 38th lowest income (median = $31K), 16th most White (95%), 83rd fewest Blacks (2.1%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%), 16th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TN-02
Location Eastern TN, including Knoxville. Borders NC map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative John Duncan (R)
VoteView 434
First elected 1988
2008 margin 69-27 over Doug Vandagriff
2006 margin 78-22
2004 margin 79-19
Obama margin 34-64
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 73rd most White (90.1%), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%), 40th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TN-03
Location Shaped sort of like a barbell, running from the GA border in the south, then narrowing and running NE to the VA and KY borders, where it widens again map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Zach Wamp (R) Retiring to run for governor
VoteView 353.5
First elected 1994
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents Although there are lots of people considering running, the only confirmed Democrat is Paula Flowers
Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Long shot
District: TN-04
Location Shaped like a lopsided U, starting south of Nashville in the middle of the state, south to the AL border, east to the GA border, then north to the KY border map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Lincoln Davis (D)
VoteView 221
First elected 2002
2008 margin 59-38 over Monty Lankford
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 55-44
Obama margin 34-64
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Monty Lankford
Demographics 4th most rural (67.9%), 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 48th most Whites (92.6%), 68th fewest Latinos (1.6%)
Assessment Safe
District: TN-05
Location Nashville and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Jim Cooper (D)
VoteView 197
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-31 over Gerald Donovan
2006 margin 69-28
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 68th most Blacks (23.4%)
Assessment Safe
District: TN-06
Location Central part of northern TN bordering KY map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Bart Gordon (D)
VoteView 209
First elected 1984
2008 margin 74-26 over an independent
2006 margin 67-31
2004 margin 64-34
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents Dave Evans and Gary Mann are in a Republican primary.
Demographics 63rd most rural (46.8%)
Assessment Safe
District: TN-07
Location Another strange shaped district. Most of it is in southwestern TN, bordering MS and AL, but it stretches north and east to the suburbs of Nashville, then north to the KY border map
Cook PVI R + 18
Representative Marsha Blackburn (R)
VoteView 407.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 69-31 over Randy Morris
2006 margin 66-32
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 33-66
Bush margin 2004 66-33
Current opponents Gary Rabidoux
Demographics 95th most rural (39.0%), 28th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TN-08
Location Northwestern TN, bordering AR, MO and KY map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative John Tanner (D)
VoteView 220
First elected 1988
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 73-27
2004 margin 74-26
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents James Hart and Donn James in a Republican primary.
Demographics 36th most rural (53.0%), 64th lowest income (median = $33K), 38th most Blacks (22.3%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)
Assessment Safe
District: TN-09
Location Memphis and suburbs, bordering AR and MS map
Cook PVI D + 23
Representative Steve Cohen (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 2006
2008 margin No Republican
2006 margin 60-22
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 77-22
Bush margin 2004 30-70
Current opponents There is a primary, but no declared Republican running
Demographics 76th lowest income (median = $34K), 56th fewest Whites (34.9%), 10th most Blacks (59.5%), 38th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
If Cohen still continues to win perhaps he will allow for his district to be weakened to benefit Tanner in TN 08?