California State Assembly Races Analysis (Part 1/4)

Greetings, this is my first post here. Glad to meet you all. Being a Californian, i decided to post my $0.02 about the races here, once i finish the Assembly, next is the Senate. As a High School Sophomore, i’ve always been interested in these races, so if i do not read any replies about updates and what not, i have schoolwork.:

CA-01:

Incumbent: Wesley Chesboro (D-Eureka)

Registration:

45.9% DEM

30.3% GOP

14.6% DTS (Decline to State)

Counties: Del Norte, Humboldt, Trinity, Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma (part)

Analysis: Margin between Democrat and Republic registered voters is almost the same as the Decline to State voters. Safe Democrat.

CA-02:

Incumbent: Jim Nielsen (R-Gerber)

Registration:

46.3% GOP

36.7% DEM

11.6% DTS

Counties: Butte (part), Colusa, Glenn, Modoc, Shasta, Siskyou, Sutter, Tehama, Yolo (part)

Analysis: Nielsen is a newcomer, but got elected with 65.4%!. Safe Republican.

CA-03:

Incumbent: Dan Logue (R-Chico)

Registration:

43.0% GOP

36.3% DEM

14.2% DTS

Counties: Butte (Some from the 2nd district, most here), Lassen, Nevada, Placer (part), Plumas, Sierra, Yuba

Analysis:: Logue is a newbie. He got elected with a safe, but still ‘not-so’ with 55.6%. Could be interesting, but looks pretty safe for Logue. Margin between DEM and GOP registered voters is 7.6%, so there could be some action in a district that gave John McCain just under a majority with 49.8%. Republican Favored.

CA-04:

Incumbent: Ted Gaines (R-Roseville)

Registration:

45.4% GOP

35.7% DEM

13.9% DTS

Counties: Alpine, El Dorado (most), Sacramento (less than a sliver), Placer (rest in the 3rd District).

Analysis: Unopposed in 2008, pretty much safe. Safe Republican.

CA-05:

Incumbent: Roger Niello (R-Fair Oaks)

Registration:

43.4% GOP

38.7% DEM

13.2% DTS

Counties: Placer (part), Sacramento (part)

Analysis: Niello is term-limited, Obama won this district with 51.1%, while Niello’s opponent had to deal with a third-party challenger, Niello won with 54%, while the DEM got only 38%, while the third-party got about 8%, and Niello is no moderate. Depending on who runs here, this is a must-win seat. Lean Republican.

CA-06:

Incumbent: Jarred Huffman (D-San Rafael)

Registration:

53.6% DEM

21.2% GOP

20.7% DTS

Counties: Marin, Sonoma (part)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-07:

Incumbent: Noreen Evans (D-Santa Rosa)

Registration:

52.6% DEM

28.9% GOP

13.3% DTS

Counties: Napa, Solano (part), Sonoma (part)

Analysis: Evans is term-limited, safe for whichever Democrat that succeeds her. Safe Democrat.

CA-08:

Incumbent: Mariko Yamada (D-Davis)

Registration:

47.6% DEM

31.1% GOP

16.0% DTS

Counties: Solano (part), Yolo (part is in the 2nd District, most is here)

Analysis: Yamada is a newcomer that won more than Obama did (66.1% compared to O’s 63.3%). Safe Democrat.

CA-09:

Incumbent: Dave Jones (D-Sacramento) Running for Insurance Commissioner

Registration:

58.1% DEM

22.5% GOP

13.5% DTS

Counties: Sacramento (mostly just the City)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-10:

Incumbent: Alyson Huber (D-El Dorado Hills)

Registration:

43.9% GOP

40.8% DEM

11.1% DTS

Counties: Sacramento (part), Amador,  El Dorado (El Dorado Hills), San Joaquin (part)

Analysis: Huber is very vulnerable. She won with only 46.7% against a no-name GOP opponent, but Obama managed to break a majority with 51.1%. We must keep this seat at all costs. Lean Democrat

CA-11:

Incumbent: Tom Torlakson (D-Antioch) Running for Superintendent of Public Instruction

Registration:

53.9% DEM

27.2% DEM

11.2% DTS

Counties: Contra Costa (part)

Analysis: As mentioned above, Torlakson will be running for SPI (a non-partisan office on the outside), if he wins (a possibility, he has to contend with State Sen. Gloria Romero, and some others), a Democrat for sure will win this. Safe Democrat.

CA-12:

Incumbent: Fiona Ma (D-San Fransisco)

Registration:

54.5% DEM

24.5% DTS

15.8% GOP

Counties: About half of SF, San Mateo (part)

Analysis: Fiona Ma, hands down, is one of my favorite legislators. She knows how to communicate via Live Webcast or Social Media. Seriously, a district with SF is automatically: Safe Democrat.

CA-13:

Incumbent: Tom Ammiano (D-San Fransisco)

Registration:

57.7% DEM

22.7% DTS

12.28% GOP

Counties: Other half of SF

Analysis: It’s San Fransisco. Safe Democrat.

CA-14:

Incumbent: Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley)

Registration:

61.1% DEM

20.7% DTS

13.1% GOP

Counties: Alameda (part), Contra Costa (part)

Analysis: First elected in 2008, unanimously. Safe Democrat.

CA-15:

Incumbent: Joan Buchanan (D-Alamo)

Registration:

44.0% GOP

38.2% DEM

12.0% DTS

Counties: Alameda (part), Contra Costa (part), Sacramento (part), San Joaquin (part)

Analysis: Now that she’s back in the Assembly, she’s gonna work alot harder if she only won with 52.3% while Obama totally got this district with 57.6%. Basically, the more conservative (!) parts of Alameda (!) and Contra Costa make the bulk of this district. Leans Democrat.

CA-16:

Incumbent: Sandre Swanson (D-Oakland)

Registration:

64.0% DEM

16.7% DTS

12.4% GOP

Counties: Alameda (Oakland, Alameda and Piedmont)

Analysis: I believe this is the most Democratic Assembly district there is. Safe Democrat.

CA-17:

Incumbent: Cathleen Galgani (D-Tracy)

Registration:

52.5% DEM

34.7% GOP

8.5% DTS

Counties: Merced, San Joaquin (part), Stanislaus (part)

Analysis: First time elected in 2006, with only 60%, come on in a district like this? Safe Democrat.

CA-18:

Incumbent: Mary Hayashi (D-Hayward)

Registration:

56.1% DEM

24.9% GOP

14.6% DTS

Counties: Alameda (part)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-19:

Incumbent: Jerry Hill (D-San Mateo)

Registration:

51.1% DEM

27.0% GOP

17.5% DTS

Counties: San Mateo (part)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-20:

Incumbent: Alberto Torrico (D-Newark) Running for Attorney General

Registration:

48.4% DEM

27.9% GOP

19.3% DTS

Counties: Alameda (part), Santa Clara (less than 1% of San Jose and Milpitas)

Analysis: Safe.

Feel free to suggest improvements or things i missed.