An Iowan’s view of Sabato’s new House ratings

Last year all five Iowa incumbents in the House of Representatives were re-elected by double-digit margins. The main challengers failed to win even 40 percent of the vote against Democrats Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02), as well as Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05).

I’ve long assumed that none of Iowa’s Congressional districts would be competitive in 2010. Although Republicans have put Leonard Boswell (IA-03) on their long list of House targets, several other analysts share my view that Boswell is safe for next year. To my knowledge, the only declared candidates against Boswell are the little-known Dave Funk and Pat Bertroche. Boswell’s 1996 opponent Mike Mahaffey is thinking it over too.

Isaac Wood and Larry Sabato released new House race rankings, and they included IA-03 among 47 Democratic-held districts that are “likely” to remain Democratic:

The “likely” category is reserved for those competitive races where one party has a distinct advantage over the other. Most of these races feature either strong challengers or weak incumbents, but not a combination of the two that would warrant a more competitive designation. Consider these races as a watch list which could turn into heated battle with a single misstep by an incumbent or positive fundraising report.

I could see Iowa’s third district becoming competitive, but only if the economy is in terrible shape next fall and Republicans fund a well-known candidate with a base in Polk County (the population center of the district).

I question Wood and Sabato’s decision to put Loebsack’s district in the “likely” category as well. So far right-winger Steve Rathje is definitely running against Loebsack (he narrowly lost the 2008 GOP primary for U.S. Senate). Mariannette Miller-Meeks is also considering a rematch. She’s an impressive woman, but I frankly can’t imagine this district becoming competitive in 2010. IA-02 has much stronger Democratic voting performance than IA-03, which tracks closely with the nationwide vote in presidential elections.

Iowa City-based blogger John Deeth, who’s lived in IA-02 for a long time, also thinks Loebsack is rock solid for 2010.

Share any thoughts or predictions in this thread.

P.S.: Any idea when SSP’s 2010 House race ratings will be released?

UPDATE: From Deeth’s blog:

MMM’s case (other than her admittedly interesting biography) was attacking Loebsack as a solid vote for Speaker Pelosi and the Democratic leadership — as if that was a BAD thing in a Democratic district. She also had trouble keeping her own party united behind her, with anti-choice forces within the GOP sent out late attacks and fed the rumor mill.

Only thing I can think of is that Sabato just looked at the Loebsack percentage of just a hair under 60. The Green and independent candidates account for that; in Johnson County at least MMM’s percentage almost exactly matched McCain’s, and Loebsack trailed Obama by almost exactly the third party vote.

Looks to me like Sabato just threw every 2006 and 2008 upset winner (Space, Shea-Porter, Walz, etc.) on the “Likely” list. Like I was saying even BEFORE the 2006 election, the real fluke is that Jim Leach held the seat as long as he did.

36 thoughts on “An Iowan’s view of Sabato’s new House ratings”

  1. I think that very few of the “likely” rated races will actually become competitive. Note that Souder and Young are on the list; do you really expect either one to lose to a Democrat? I certainly don’t. But I suppose it would take less than a total lightning bolt for that to happen. I guess the same may be true of Boswell, because he’s a lackluster candidate in a somewhat closely-divided district. And it is indeed possible that Congress will fail to pass meaningful health reform and that the economy sucks come election time. Or perhaps the opposite. We Democrats had better hope things have turned around quite a bit more by that time.

    By the way, arguably the worst rating on Sabato’s list is for Cao. That should be rated Likely Democrat, not Leaning, don’t you think?

  2. Since Iowa is supposed to lose a House seat in 2012 due to re-districting, no top tier Republican is likely to run against Boswell in 2010.  The theory is that Boswell and Latham will face off in 2012 with Boswell the likely goner.  A strong challenger would be renting the seat for two years before taking on Latham in a primary.  I don’t see any strong challenge in any Iowa district likely because of the fact that the districts will change dramatically to fit a four seat (rather than five) map.

    Cao is shown as in a Likely Democratic district on the chart.  This is the only one of its kind and should be presented in a separate category of likely to turn.  The closest parallel was Dan Rosternkowski’s seat in Illinois.  It turned in a scandal in 1994 and turned right back in 1996.

  3. I generally think Sabato is full of it. I used to read him regularly, back in 2006, but haven’t for years – especially not since Nate Silver came along. The problem is, like all Beltway pundits, he’s completely risk-averse and can’t ever bet on a race until the day before. All of his “predictions” at this point in any cycle are simply hedging, because heaven forbid he should ever be wrong about any race. He’s also completely full of himself in a way I don’t think is warranted, given that his final predictions are largely accurate precisely because he waits until the last possible minute to make them. So he holds a pundit record for accuracy, so what? Most people on this site can beat or tie his “score”. And, of course, he tends to ignore the grassroots of both parties as inferior, just like everyone else in the Beltway – which is why certain races such as NH-01 in 2006 weren’t on his radar at all.

    Really, the main reason I don’t like him is he allows his students to put unprofessional jokes on his website at the expense of certain states, then ignores email calling him out on it. (This is a reference to his commenting on VT-Sen 2006 with “Why is Vermont running a socialist for Senate in 2006? Because no communist was available!”) Once again, it’s a cheap shot at an easy state to make fun of that’s already unpopular inside the Beltway. I’m sure if someone had made a similar joke equating Virginians with hillbillies, he’d have been offended.

    Sabato is a coward.  

  4. Sabato teaches a senior seminar in PoliSci at the University of Virginia. To be admitted to the class, prospective students must first submit an essay, explaining how they could contribute to the class and how it would further them in their career goals.

    In 2007, S. R. Siddarth, a UVa student who worked in Jim Webb’s U.S. Senate campaign the previous summer, applied for the class.  His essay read, in full, “I am Macaca.”

    He was admitted.

  5. will be ten or less, net, in 2010.  The reason is simple:  the Republican brand is still trash.  For a Democrat to lose, the majority of voters have to vote for the Republican, and there are so many voters who can’t stand the thought of doing that.  The most likely Democrats to lose are those who won in 2008 thanks largely to the high turnout, e.g. Periello, Kilroy.  People aren’t going to change their vote from Democrat to Republican. Rather, Republicans will be more strongly motivated to vote. Remember also that southerners love incumbents.  That’s why Marshall, Barrow, Childers, and Griffith are safe, and Bright will probably win.  

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