Much to discuss re the NY-23 special election.
- In what I think is the biggest piece of recent news, the Working Families Party is endorsing Democrat Bill Owens. This means that Owens will get their ballot line, of course, but it hopefully also signals that the WFP plans to deploy its well-honed ground resources on Owens’ behalf. Last year, in a state Senate special election in a very red district in the same part of New York, the WFP sent 25 canvassers full-time and got huge praise all around for helping Dem Darrel Aubertine pull off a major upset.
- Competing for the top slot is word that Barack Obama will hold a fundraiser for Owens in New York City on Oct. 20th. Obama, as you know, has shown a frustrating reluctance to personally involve himself in downballot races (for the NY-20 special, the best he could muster was a Biden radio ad). So I take his engagement as a sign that his political team likes Owens’ chances, and thinks a win here would be a key score. Of note: Bill Clinton and Kirsten Gillibrand have both sent out fundraising emails for Owens – someone with a lot of juice is making this stuff happen.
- Dede Scozzafava scored the NRA’s endorsement. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman had recently gone on the air with an ad touting his NRA membership – so much for that, I suppose.
- Had your hopes about Scozzafava’s ideology? Think she might wind up as a Susan Collins-type, or even the GOP’s version of Joe Lieberman? Wonder no more! NRCC chair Pete Sessions explains it all:
Sessions assured Members that despite Scozzafava’s moderate leanings… she will be voting with the Republican Conference 95 percent or more of the time.
- The party committees drop a bunch more scrilla on the North Country. The DCCC is in for a cool hundred grand on TV ads, while the NRCC plunks down about 65 large, also, it seems, for airtime. Here’s a look at the DCCC’s newest spot on the left, as well as a new web video on the right:
I personally believe that Owens will be the best candidate in this district. DeDe will be another vote for the mainstream GOP agenda. What is the GOP agenda? Say “NO” at any progressive agenda of the Democrats. Sorry, but just because she supports marriage equality (like myself) will not earn her my vote. She will be another vote that the GOP will have in their pocket.
Owens is a solid candidate, and I think he will win this race. He can support progressive economic legislation, while DeDe will be held back by her caucus. There are very few GOP house members that are “mavericks”. If my memory serves correct, not one GOP member in the House supported the last stimulus package.
who want Scozzafava to win. If you think she will vote liberally, go look at Joseph Cao.
Scozzafava supports card check, gay rights, has a very pro enviorment voting record in the NYS Assembly, she publicly stated was open to a public option in healthcare and is 100% pro choice.
Owens is against a public option in healthcare and was at 1st was against the Employee Free Choice Act and now hasn’t taken a position on it.
That is why UAW endorsed Scozzafava and why the St. Lawrence County Central Labor Council endorsed her and the Plattsburgh-Saranac Lake Building Trades Council backs her.
When was the last time a GOP had more private sector labor support than the Democrat in the race?
The reason Sessions said what he did was because GOP donor base is up in arms over the NRCC spending so much money to back someone as far left on the issues as Scozzafava is. they want the NRCC to back Hoffman or just run anti Owen ads.
obviously, they’ve come to the conclusion that Owens would be a bigger help to the progressive agenda in Congress than would Scozzafava.
It would give the DCCC some nice momentum going into the midterms and may finally force the nattering nabobs of negativity on cable television to start actually do some analysis instead of repeating the same “2010 could be the next 1994” meme. I heard it again ad nauseum on Anderson Cooper last night and it’s really getting annoying. The climate between those two elections are totally different, and even guys like Rothenberg admit that there’s no way in hell the GOP will regain the House in 2010, yet it’s still treated like the absolute truth on the news networks. A win by Owens will prove that the Democratic message is still doing well in swing districts nationally and can reassure Democrats who may be anxious about their reelection. Hell, given the historically Republican nature of the district even a close loss could be spun the right way. Go Owens!
…she has raised no money and the NRCC advertising is a disaster. They’re running these ads trying to tie Owens to Nancy Pelosi, a generic attack that might work as a fundraising appeal to stalwart conservatives, but not as a vote-getter with anyone else. The attack ads claim Owens will raise taxes, with no foundation established for why voters should think that.
As Chuck Todd says, candidates and campaigns matter. Whatever the local GOP organizations thought were DeDe’s general strengths, she’s not proving very up to the challenge so far……and time is short.
Owens, meanwhile, is getting pretty good ads on the air.
And Hoffman has the resources to make himself visible.
The truth is DeDe might still have an edge if she could raise money and/or the party help was of good quality.
But the NRCC crew have been inept dingbats for several cycles now, with this race proving more of the same.