SSP Daily Digest: 10/14

CO-Sen, CO-07: An interesting move in Colorado, where Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier dropped his Senate bid (which was plausible when other Republicans weren’t interested in the race, but relegated to longshot status when his fundraising stalled and ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton got into the field). Instead, he’ll be getting into the CO-07 race against sophomore Dem Rep. Ed Perlmutter. In some ways, that’ll be a harder general election — at D+4, the 7th is more Democratic than the state as a whole, and Perlmutter got 63% in his 2008 re-election — but this way he’ll at least make it into the general election, which will help raise the 32-year-old Frazier’s profile for future efforts.

CT-Sen: How sadly transparent a play to the party’s base is this? Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, who in the two years prior to his 2006 defeat was the 5th most liberal Republican in the House, is now a teabagger. He says he’s attached an actual bag of tea to his pocket copy of the Constitution.

FL-Sen: In an effort to have no more George LeMieuxs, there’s a bipartisan effort afoot in the Florida state legislature to change the law so that Senate vacancies in Florida will be filled by fast special election rather than by appointment. State Sen. Paula Dockery, who may be running for Governor soon, is the Republican co-sponsor.

IL-Sen: David Hoffman, the former Inspector General of Chicago (and frequent monkeywrench in that city’s machine), has released an internal poll showing that state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, while starting with a sizable lead, doesn’t have a mortal lock on the Democratic Senate nomination. Hoffman’s poll finds Giannoulias at 26%, with former Chicago Urban League head Cheryle Jackson at 12 and Hoffman at 7, leaving 55% undecided. On the GOP side of the aisle, Mark Kirk continues to shuffle to the right as he faces some competition in his own primary: he continues to defend his flip-flop on the cap-and-trade vote that he voted for in the House and would vote against in the Senate, but also says that he’d keep in place the military’s Don’t Ask Don’t Tell policy, saying “Keeping that all out of the workplace makes common sense.”

MA-Sen: In case there was any doubt AG Martha Coakley was running under the mantle of the establishment’s candidate, she unleashed a torrent of endorsements yesterday, including about half of the state legislature (78 representatives and 16 senators, including both chambers’ leaders), as well as many mayors and labor unions.

MO-Sen: Joe Biden continues to ramp up his fundraising efforts on behalf of 2010 candidates; he’ll be appearing at a Robin Carnahan fundraiser in St. Louis tomorrow. And on Friday, he’ll appear in Nevada with Harry Reid to tout the stimulus.

NV-Sen, Gov: On the off chance that John Ensign decides to spare us all the embarrassment and resign before 2010, Gov. Jim Gibbons says that he wouldn’t appoint former AG Brian Sandoval to the job (despite that getting Sandoval out of the way would make his own chances of surviving the gubernatorial primary somewhat better). Gibbons also says he wouldn’t appoint himself (since that would just mean likely defeat in the primary in the ensuing 2010 special election).

OH-Sen: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher picked up an endorsement from Rep. John Boccieri of the Canton-area 16th District today. Boccieri joins Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson in endorsing Fisher in the Dem primary; the remaining six Dems in the state’s delegation haven’t picked sides yet.

OR-Gov: Not one but three possible new entrants in the Oregon gubernatorial race, although I can’t see any of them getting anywhere. On the Dem side, former Hewlett-Packard executive Steve Shields says he’ll announce on Thursday that he’s getting into the Democratic primary field. He wasn’t at the Carly Fiorina levels of management (which, uh, may actually be a good thing) and doesn’t bring a personal fortune to the race, but he has hired some pricey staffers already. On the GOP side, very large, very slow, very white former Portland Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley is interested in the race (after having declined the NRCC to run in OR-05). No one is sure where exactly he fits in ideologically in the GOP; at any rate, here’s hoping he’s a better campaigner than he was a free throw shooter. And out on the left, Jerry Wilson, the founder of Soloflex, is going to run under the Oregon Progressive Party banner. If the general were likely to be closer, a third-party lefty with his own money would seem threatening, but so far, with John Kitzhaber in, the race isn’t shaping up to be close.

VA-Gov: Al Gore will be appearing on Creigh Deeds’ behalf on Friday, although it’ll be at a private fundraiser and not a public appearance.

FL-08: With the surprising decision of former state Sen. Daniel Webster to beg off from facing Rep. Alan Grayson, all of a sudden the floodgates have opened — and not in the way you’d expect. Prospective candidates are now actively running away from the race, starting with state Rep. Steve Precourt, who was supposed to be Plan D but said he won’t run and will go for re-election to his state House seat instead. This was followed by wealthy businessman Jerry Pierce, who had previously gotten into the race and promised to spend $200,000 of his own money, but then mysteriously dropped out yesterday. Another rumored rich guy, Tim Seneff, already begged off last week — which means that 28-year-old real estate developer and South Florida transplant Armando Gutierrez Jr. may be the last GOPer standing — and even he sounds like he’s having problems launching his campaign. What kind of mysterious powers does Alan Grayson have here? (Well, other than many millions of his own money and a willingness to spend it…)

FL-19: It’s been revealed that Rep. Robert Wexler’s new job will not be in the Obama administration, but rather as president of the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation. The special election date won’t be set until Wexler’s resignation has been made official, though.

IN-02: It’s official: state Rep. “Wacky” Jackie Walorski will be taking on Rep. Joe Donnelly in the 2nd, bringing the full might of the teabaggers’ movement down upon him.

IN-08: Also in Indiana, the Republicans lined up a challenger to Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who’s gotten more than 60% of the vote in both his elections in this Republican-leaning seat. Larry Bucshon, a surgeon, is a political novice, but would seem to bring his own money to the race.

NV-03: In Nevada’s 3rd, it looks like former state Sen. Joe Heck won’t have the Republican primary field to himself. Real estate investor Rob Lauer is getting in the race and says he’ll invest $100K of his own money in the campaign.

NY-23: Politico has some encouraging dirt on the special election in the 23rd: Republican Dede Scozzafava is dangerously low on cash, and that’s largely because the RNC has declined to get involved in the race. Scozzafava has spent only $26K on TV ads and recently had to pull down an ad in the Syracuse market; by contrast, Dem Bill Owens and Conservative Doug Hoffman have spent $303K and $124K on TV, respectively. (Discussion underway in conspiracy‘s diary.) Adding further fuel to the GOP/Conservative split is that Mike Huckabee will be appearing in Syracuse to address the NY Conservative Party. Huckabee hasn’t actually endorsed Hoffman, but the timing can’t exactly be a coincidence.

NY-29: This slipped through the cracks over the weekend; after a cryptic e-mail that led to some hyperventilating about whether Eric Massa wouldn’t run for re-election, he announced at a press conference on the 10th that, yes, in fact, he will be back. Massa faces a challenge in 2010 from Corning mayor Tom Reed.

ME-Init: A poll from PanAtlantic SMS points to the anti-gay marriage Question 1 in Maine going down to defeat (meaning that gay marriage would survive). With gay advocacy groups learning from their California mistakes last year and going on the offensive with ads this time, the poll finds the proposition losing 52-43.

Legislatures: Democrats lost two legislative seats in special elections last night, a state House seat in Tennessee and a state House seat in Oklahoma. It’s a bigger deal in Tennessee, where Dem Ty Cobb widely lost to GOPer Pat Marsh in his effort to succeed his brother (losing 4,931 to 3,663); the GOP now holds a 51-48 numeric edge in the House, although it sounds like the Dems will keep controlling the chamber for now. In Oklahoma, Republican Todd Russ won with 56% en route to picking up a seat left vacant by a Democratic resignation, moving the GOP’s edge in the state House to 61-39. Both were rural districts with Democratic registration edges but extremely Republican tilts as of late, where historic Democratic downballot advantages are drying up.

NYC: After looking kind of vulnerable in the previous SurveyUSA poll, mayor Michael Bloomberg bounced back in yesterday’s poll. He leads Democratic city comptroller William Thompson, 55-38.

King Co. Exec: Also from SurveyUSA, a troubling look at the King County Executive Race, where the stealth Republican candidate Susan Hutchison leads Democratic county councilor Dow Constantine, 47-42. This is the first time county executive has been a nonpartisan race, and you’ve gotta wonder how many people are unaware of Hutchison’s Republican past (for her to be polling this well in such a blue county, it would seem that she picked up a fair number of votes from suburban moderate Dems who voted for state Sen. Fred Jarrett or state Rep. Ross Hunter in the primary and who may be loath to see another Seattlite like Constantine get the job). This race, to be decided in November, may be something of a canary in the coal mine, as it puts to the test the seemingly new Republican strategy of running blonde 50-something women with little partisan track record, having them steer clear of social conservatism and mostly focus on anti-tax platitudes (as seen in NV-Sen and CO-Sen, and NH-Sen as well if you disregard the “blonde” part).

45 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/14”

  1. Fisher joins Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson in endorsing Fisher in the Dem primary; the remaining six Dems in the state’s delegation haven’t picked sides yet.

    You mean Boccieri is joining Ryan, Space, and Wilson in endorsing Fisher right?

  2. but I would like to see a convincing victory in that initiative. A win is a win, but a squeaker win in “liberal Maine” would be less encouraging than a surprisingly crushing win for the No on 1 side.

  3. Check out some of these internals…

    – Thompson leads Bloomberg 47-45 among Independents. I’d be shocked if Thompson had 37 among this group.

    – Bloomberg leads 61-34 in the Bronx, and 52-40 in Queens. Of course, NYC political observers know the Bronx is a Dem stronghold which Ferrer and Green (and Ruth Messinger too) managed to carry comfortably. Queens, on the other hand, should probably be a 62-30 margin for Bloomberg.

    – Thompson leads 48-45 among voters 35-49, and yet Bloomberg leads 60-33 among voters under 35. That is an entirely-inconceivable 30-point age gap.

    There’s no way Bloomberg’s up by 17. Maybe as high as 12, or as low as 7. Thompson’s going to beat him among registered Dems, win in the Bronx, and keep Bloomberg to single-digits in Manhattan and Brooklyn. That’s not a 17-point race.

  4. This is shaping up to be a crazy race. The New York State United Teachers endorses Scozzafava and promises to put people on the streets and run phone banks for her!

    When was the last time you saw a GOP candidate counting on grassroots union support to overcome a lack of campaign funding?

    It’s crazy.

    The local GOP really shot themselves in the foot by picking Scozzafava. She is too liberal to get GOP finacial support. GOP donors doesn’t want to give to a candidate who is pro-choice, pro gay rights and for the employee free choice act.

    This is 2nd time the local NYS GOP picked the wrong candidate in a special election. Got to believe if they went with John Faso he might have beat Murphy and anyone else other than Scozzafava would not have caused a Conservative Party candidate.

    Story here:

    http://www.politickerny.com/56

     

  5. I wonder why no one is willing to take a whack at him.  Are there some internal polls we haven’t seen that shows Grayson in a strong position back at him?  Are his constituent services top-notch?  It just seems so odd that a guy the national party would love to make an example of is getting a free pass.  Weird.

  6. Obama will reportedly stump for Corzine next Wednesday, 10/21. Corzine apparently actually wants the Prez to campaign for him a THIRD time, closer to election day, but he apparently has yet to commit to anything of the sort.

    Still no word if Obama plans on stumping again for Deeds.

  7. http://www.politico.com/blogs/

    White announced he raised $1.1 million over the last three months and supplemented that total with a personal $400,000 donation to the campaign. He ended September with $4.18 million in his campaign account

    And with his latest fundraising numbers – he’s already raised $6 million for the campaign so far – it shows he’ll have plenty of resources to make a real run at the seat.

    In a two year cycle Noriega had raised 4.1 million dollars, in 9 months, of what will probably be a 16 month cycle (assuming a May 2010 special election) he has already broken the 6 million mark?  Damn.  

  8. Tom Jensen generously sent me some breakdowns of NJ by area code:

    If you put an area code map in front of you, you can see how this might be useful (though NJ area codes seem a bit. . .gerrymandered frankly). The deal is that Corzine is surprisingly strong in south Jersey but getting killed in Central Jersey.

           Christie, Corzine, Daggett

    (201) 40             47         7

    (609) 41             35        17(!)

    (732) 45             33        14

    (856) 34             45        12

    (908) 38             41        16

    (973) 36             41         9

    My takeaway: target Trenton, Princeton, and Atlantic City.  

  9. A slightly old (October 1st) but still interesting development up in Maine…

    The Maine Commission on Governmental Ethics and Election Practices has decided to investigate our pals at the National Organization for Marriage for possibly violating Maine’s finance reporting laws.

    Here’s the catch: The members of the Commission voted (3-2) to investigate after their own staff had issued a report concluding there wasn’t enough evidence to justify an investigation.

    This, of course, has led NOM to accuse the Commission of a politicized investigation.

    Full article here.

  10. Their State Senate Minority Leader:

    Denny Altes is the Republican leader of the Arkansas Senate. He represents Sebastian County, Arkansas, Senate District 13.

    On November 29, 2007 Altes publicly apologized for an email he had written in which he said that Arkansas is overrun with illegal immigrants and that “we are being out populated by blacks also.” He was tearful in his apology but also stated that he did not feel his remarks were racist.

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