Election 2009 Results Thread, No. 2

10:43: Time for some more thread.

10:25PM: Shades of Florida 2000: Apparently, NBC has retracted its call on NYC-Mayor, but the NYT is still loud-n-proud. Bloombo’s lead has widended a bit, with three-quarters of the vote now reporting. But barring some late, wild changes, this is going to be a major story – how all the polls were so wildly wrong (and so many of them, too!), and how establishment Democrats failed to support one of their own.

10:21PM: Dems win a special election in Alabama, taking HD-65 by a 53-47 margin, which was quite a bit closer than expected.

10:17PM: Up in Maine, gay marraige is holding on by 51-49 with 22% in.

10:16PM: With 27% in, Bill Owens is up 51-44-5.

10:13PM: The AP is calling NJ-Gov for Chris Christie.

10:11PM: Man. Bill Thompson is only 0.5% back with over half the vote recorded. What is going on here?

10:07PM: As I’d suspected, Corzine is overperforming a bit in the north and Christie is overperforming in the south. (Maybe those LG picks actually made a difference, too.) Corzine is 49/48 in Bergen (should be 42/47 according to baselines), 68/27 in Essex (should be 64/25), 68/27 in Hudson (should be 61/28), and 52/43 in Passaic (should be 48/41). But Christie is cleaning up down the shore: 31/62 in Monmouth (should be 35/53), 28/66 in Ocean (should be 28/60), and unfortunately, in blue Camden County, where it’s 52/42 (should be 55/33). This balances out to a very close race, but it looks like it’s shading toward Christie.

10:05PM: In NY-23, Owens is still leading even at 15% reporting. He’s at 51%, with Hoffman at 45 and Dede at 5.

9:47PM: NYT calls the NYC mayoral race for Bloombo. Jesus. More than half my adult life has been spent under Republican mayors in NYC, and that ratio is about to get worse. The Times must really know something, though – 17% in and Bloombo leads by little more than 1%.

9:39PM: With 158 of 169 precincts reporting, Dem Anthony Foxx has a 52-48 lead in the Charlotte mayor’s race.

9:35PM: Sorry about the server errors, folks – not a whole lot we can do on our end, I’m afraid. Anyhow, the first few precincts are reporting in NY-23.

9:29PM: Looks like Jon Corzine is underperforming his county baselines just about everywhere. Though it just closed to 49-44-6 Christie with 44% reporting.

9:24PM: Another VA General Assembly Dem incumbent set to bite the dust in HD-83, trailing by 20 points with 82% reporting.

9:22PM: Some results are finally starting to make their way in from the Atlanta mayor’s race.

9:20PM: 52-42-6 Christie with 35% in. Ugh.

9:08PM: 50-43-5 Christie, with 29% reporting.

9:02PM: Polls are now closed in NY. In PA, the Dem Supreme Court candidate is up large with 6% in.

8:56PM: 16% of the vote in so far in New Jersey, and Christie is up 54-40. Don’t fret, though – most of the counties reporting are expected to go heavily to Christie.

8:55PM: Just 4% in so far in Maine – good guys with 56%.

8:52PM: TheUnknown285 says of GA-HD-141: “There will be a runoff. One of the candidates will be the indy Rusty Kidd. The question is: who will be the other candidate? Democrat Darrell Black and Republican Angela Gheesling-McCommon are separated by sixteen votes with seemingly only canvassing and absentees left.”

8:50PM: Johnny LT has a good update on the VA Assembly races. Says Johnny: “So far not looking as bad as it should be for such a large McDonnell victory.”

8:38PM: Just a head’s up for those planning to burn the midnight oil: We may not get the full results of NY-23 tonight, as several towns in St. Lawrence County are having difficulty with their new voting equipment.

8:33PM: Time for some fresh thread. The AP has results for several states: CA | CT | GA | ME | MI | NJ | NY | OH | PA | VA | WA.

156 thoughts on “Election 2009 Results Thread, No. 2”

  2. but it seems Corzine is ahead of the needed County performances for victory thus far pretty much everywhere. Let’s hope that holds up.

  4. Democrat Panella vs. Republican Orie-Melvin for control of the Court.

    Not many votes in, but so far there is something interesting.  Panella is outperforming the lower ticket Democrats.

  5. my covers and hope for the best.  This is more nerve wracking that last year.

    Come on Corzine.  Come on Mainers!

  6. So far:

    3rd – Republican pickup

    93rd – Democratic pickup (4 precincts left but it would require a net 900 votes for Hamilton to pull off a win)

    Looks like the 23rd, 64th, and 99th will be Dem holds.

    Northern Virginia Democratic districts to keep an eye on: 32nd, 34th, 35th, 51st, 67th,

    Northern Virginia Republican districts to keep an eye on: 52nd

    Also watch the 21st and 83rd in Virginia Beach, both held by Dems.

    So far not looking as bad as it should be for such a large McDonnell victory.

  10. There will be a runoff.  One of the candidates will be the indy Rusty Kidd.  The question is: who will be the other candidate?  Democrat Darrell Black and Republican Angela Gheesling-McCommon are separated by sixteen votes with seemingly only canvassing and absentees left.

  13. We lost the Scotland, CT First Selectman Race! The GOP incumbent won by 13 votes, 232-219! I guess they are really angry at Obama up in Scotland.

    Are the Breckenridge, CO results in yet?

  14. I can say that I’m really worried about Clinton County. I was so hoping Janet Duprey would see the wingnut target on her back – and follow Scozzafava’s endorsement of Bill Owens. Unfortunately, she and the Clinton (and Franklin) County R party (including the Mayor of Owens’ town, Plattsburgh) have all endorsed Hoffman.

    Owens needs to win Clinton County fairly big – if  you don’t see 55% or more for Owens…

    There’s also a second hand report from the NYDN, ref http://www.watertowndailytimes… about a paper ballot issue.

    “Unless the margin of victory for either Democratic candidate Bill Owens or Conservative nominee Doug Hoffman is 8,000 to 9,000, we’re headed for a massive recount a la NY-20,” she writes tonight.

  18. where someone tells us how Corzine comes back. ‘Cause with big chunks of Essex, Union, and Camden already in, I don’t see it happening.

  19. Most of those St. Lawrence County towns that had voting problems–that’s Dede country as far as I can tell (most are part of her Assembly district). And I would expect Dede’s territory is going to be the wildest and most interesting of the results, with a distinctly not-along-partisan-lines breakdown.  

  23. Suprise of the night for NJ:  Sunset.  It went to McCain by 21%.  And it’s going to… Corzine by 38% (100% in).  Whaaa?

  25. LD1 and LD14 are very close thus far. Of course they’re at very different stages of reporting, with seventy-something percent for LD1 and just 2% for LD14…

    LD36 is not close at all so far with 29% reporting.

  26. All Constitutional Amendments are on their way to passing. Some good Education/Veterans Health Care stuff in there, and some lingering Kelo anti-eminent domain blowback.

    Of course, it is the Higher Education amendment (Prop 4) that is the closest to not passing…

  27. Are you getting more up todate results than the Times? Because from that I’d say the basline is mixed.

  30. Hunterdon Co., bordering Somerset Co. to the west, went for Christie 66-25% with 100% in. McCain won it by 13% but thats a pretty big gain. Seems like Corzine will need to do better than expected with his base, especially in N. Jersey.

  41. 2717 – 543 Owens in Jefferson

    That’s the home of Watertown, where Biden campaigned and where Scozzafava was once mayor. The newspaper also gave Owens their endorsement, but the county went to McCain in 2008.

    http://www.watertowndailytimes…

  43. I made a simple model in excel where you plug in the results so far by county, and it spits out numbers, based off of the 2008 turnout. Right now it looks good!

    It is projecting 50.51% Owens, 39.31% Hoffman!

  49. Gosh, can’t pull up too many sites now, but I like what I’m seeing with 25% in, Owens is still leading 51-5-44!

    I wish I could pull up some site with county data….. the Watertown paper website is overloaded now.

  59. cd 23, form

    http://www.tcotreport.com/

          Hoffman              Owens          Dede           Total

    oswego     0                     0             0

    Madison      0                0                0

    Oneida          0                 0             0

    St Lawrence      1060          1717          115

    Jefferson         0             0              0

    Lewis           179             112            17

    Fulton       0                   0                  0′

    Hamilton        0                0                  0

    Clinton          3324             4853         325

    Essex            1584              1772            179

    Franklin            0              0                 0

  64. – how all the polls were so wildly wrong (and so many of them, too!), and how establishment Democrats failed to support one of their own.

    was that the Obama administration and the DNC’s preferred candidate was Bloomberg.  Bloomberg is a “bipartisan” ally for Obama’s national agenda, and he is much more valuable as such than a Democratic mayor of NYC in a state that is safe.

  65.        Hoffman              Owens          Dede             votes          Reporting Total voting precincts  % reporting

    oswego         0                     0             0                                      0            124

    Madison        0                     0                0                                   0              55

    Oneida                 0                 0             0                                  0           22

    St Lawrence      1837          2796          115          2892             13           102

    Jefferson         0                 0              0                                        0         91

    Lewis           179                  112            17                  308              3       44

    Fulton       0                   0                  0′                 8502            0              9

    Hamilton        1184              888          293             2365           11            11

    Clinton          3324             4853         325                                38            80

    Essex            1584              1772            179                            27            27  

    Franklin         2953              3346        180              6479           32         49

    Total            11061            13768          1204         26033          134         614

  66. Not looking good. Not only is the Democrat down by 4 with 77% in, but out of the 6 lower court seats on the ballot, at the moment 5 of those would also go to Republicans.

  67. Seems Bloomy’s not alone: Dave Bing had a closer than expected race over in Detroit tonight also, winning by only 20,000 votes (though sadly only 120,000 Detroiters showed up to choose who would turn out the lights).

  68. Seems County Exec Andy Spano is losing pretty big (58-42) with 56% reporting in NYCs immediate northern burbs. The DA and County Clerk races both have the Dem at about 52%, so he is clearly underperforming.

    If he loses to the GOPer it will be a fairly huge upset, especially since Westchester has moved so hard to the left, and because it is simply a large, influential place (it has a million people, 2 of whom are famous Clintons). Hopefully some of the more urban areas in Yonkers, White Plains, and Mount Vernon are still outstanding.  

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