PPP (pdf) (12/11-13, likely voters, 11/9-11 in parentheses):
Elaine Marshall (D): 37 (34)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 42 (45)
Undecided: 21 (21)Kenneth Lewis (D): 37 (32)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (45)
Undecided: 21 (23)Cal Cunningham (D): 36 (31)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 45 (44)
Undecided: 20 (25)Generic Democrat (D): 41 (40)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 42 (44)
Undecided: 17 (16)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Civitas (12/1-3, likely voters, 10/20-21 in parentheses):
Elaine Marshall (D): 32 (33)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 40 (43)
Undecided: 21 (24)Generic Democrat (D): 40 (NA)
Generic Republican (R): 39 (NA)
Undecided: 21 (NA)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
The new numbers in the North Carolina Senate race, I’m surprised to say, don’t look half bad. While Richard Burr was looking like his lot had been improving in recent months, today’s PPP poll shows Burr leading his best-known Democratic opponent, SoS Elaine Marshall, by only 5 points, and the elusive “Generic Democrat” by only 1. In fact, I’d be inclined to think that PPP got a lucky bounce with a favorable sample here, if we didn’t have separate confirmation from Civitas with similar numbers. They find Marshall a little further back, but with a similar positive trend, and they find a 1-point gap in favor of Generic D over Generic R in their first attempt at a generic ballot.
So is there an easing in the anti-Democratic sentiment here, perhaps as we start to show tangible signs of economic rebound? I wouldn’t generalize that, based on how little the same sample likes Kay Hagan (36/44 approvals) or Bev Perdue (a dire 27/53). Instead, I think we’re seeing an electorate so surly they hate all incumbents, regardless of their stripes: Burr’s not much better, at 35/37 (at least he can take some comfort in that he’s gotten 70% of the electorate to know who he is). Elaine Marshall’s the only person they’ve tested who’s in the net positives, at 19/12 — and that low name rec points to room to grow.
RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen
I knew Burr was a faceless backbencher but never expected his numbers to be this bad. He’s even just barely beating someone I’ve never even heard of. Who is Kenneth Lewis?
How can Elaine Marshall have been in statewide office since 1997 having defeated Richard Petty of all people in 1996 and have such laughably low name recognition?
I realize Secretary of State is a low-key position generally, but it’s wet noodle whipping time if you’re gonna have me believe that she’s got the “fight” in her to pull this one out.
This is the “one-term and you’re out” seat, right? That would be the only thing she’d have in her column to convince me at this point of sure victory.
Perhaps a good ol’ fashioned primary against Cunningham would do her some good…
And maybe an Old Fashioned after she wins.
While there’s certainly a lack of enthusiasm for Dems (triggered, I think, by the lack of Bush-induced urgency more than disappointment in the party), there’s also anti-incumbent feelings. This will affect Dems, but it will also affect Republicans.
Look for Grassley’s, Vitter’s, maybe McCain’s numbers to be similarly depressed.
Now if we could find someone named ‘Generic Democrat’ who also happens to be a registered Democrat I think we’re good to go.
because we need it. I’m just very disappointed in the way that it’s being handled. Cunningham is the only one directing punches at Burr, while the other two are taking them at Cunningham. I’m not very happy with the position Cunningham has taken on Afghanistan and healthcare, but if the primary were today he would have my vote because he isn’t attacking other Democrats.
At the end of the day, if Ken Lewis, who is a minority and the least well known of the three, is within six points and holding Burr to 43, then we are in much better shape than I previously thought.
Chris Dodd announces he is retiring from the Senate. Blumenthal runs for his seat, and wins it.
Dodd moves to NC and changes his name to ‘Generic Democrat’ and beats Burr.
Is that good or what?
say that Burr is unpopular–he seems to outpoll “Generic Republican” by a full point or two.
/sarcasm
Who was that?
I know for a fact that he is not liked at all here in the RTP area, even the rational conservatives here I know don’t like him.
But the Democratic candidate will need to make a good case for his/her candidacy in the metro areas.
Cunningham’s weak stand to support health care reform is certainly not a good start. I don’t really like that Marshall is 65 either, but one positive of that may be that she might be less likely to vote in a manner to win reelection, and might be more likely to vote Democratic.
Elaine Marshall has the best chance of beating Burr. This Cal Cunningham person will not. Enough said. You want to unseat Burr choose the best candidate.