Contest Entry: 27-1 in New York

New York is a very Democratic state. It voted for Barack Obama by more than twenty-five points.

But it’s not uniformly Democratic. You can’t make 28 63-36 Obama districts, because whilst Obama won the Five Boroughs by somewhere in the region of 1.6m votes, his margin in the rest of the state was only half a million votes, which my very hurried mental arithmetic tells me is about a 55-45% margin.

What’s more, even there the vote is concentrated. Obama recorded convincing victories in major population centres such as Albany, Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo and Yonkers, but he also lost twenty-six counties in the state.

If NYC was located where Albany is, these hurdles would be much more manageable. One could send out tendrils across the state, pairing the bluest bits of Manhattan with the reddest bits of Hamilton County. But with NYC’s actual position, the best you can do is send a rainbow through Westchester and those unbearably ugly tentacles would in any case peter out somewhere around Delaware and Schoharie counties. [EDIT: Turns out abgin proved me wrong.]

All of which is a very long way of saying that I don’t think a sustainable 28-0 map for Democrats exists. In fact, I don’t think 27-1 can ever be properly secure and if we hadn’t run the table since 2006, I’d be sceptical of 26-2.

So why am I trying for 27-1? Because I want to win this competition, and figure I’ll do better with a more ambitious gerrymander. No, this isn’t an unbreakable map. But it does seem likely to flip one Republican district and to drastically increase the survival chances of at least three Democrats, without making any incumbent more vulnerable than they already are.

I’ve drawn this map with a couple of aims besides those given in the contest rules. Firstly, I’ve attempted to reduce the number of obvious gerrymanders, such as Hinchey’s leg to Ithaca. I’ve paid more attention to this Upstate, whereas in NYC I’ve figured that nobody cares about the present gerrymanders so I can draw some atrocious looking districts when it benefits me. Long Island falls somewhere in between – the lines aren’t clean, but I junked a couple of early drafts where they got too silly.

Secondly, I’ve tried to preserve towns intact, on the basis that keeping counties whole makes the process very difficult, but towns are functional enough as units of local government for that to be used as a defence. This hasn’t applied on Long Island, where the towns are too large, the borders aren’t given in Dave’s app and it makes effective gerrymandering extremely difficult.

Nor have I followed district boundaries in New York, as that would take ages, screw with the VRA districts and give me a tremendous headache for very little benefit. Where possible, however, I have tried to preserve neighbourhoods fairly intact.

Finally, I’ve tried to make districts where constituent service is possible. Some measure of compactness and community of interest has been used as a criterion. Whilst this has prevented me from all the fun you can have with a Long Island Sound district, I did completely ignore this rule for the 9th. But that’s OK, because I was actively trying to make the votes of southern Staten Island irrelevant, and at last I didn’t follow my earlier plan of sticking it into the 11th!

NY 28 (light purple): No incumbent (Louise Slaughter – D)

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
704928	185889	125411	59	40	69	30	77	14	1	6

This district – composed of north-west Buffalo, most of Niagara county, the Orleans coast, north-west Monroe and all but the very east of Rochester – does not look like Louise Slaughter’s old district. It looks even more like John LaFalce’s district than the current 28th does. Slaughter doesn’t even live in this district – Perington, where she has her residence, was only just inside the 28th and including it would have shaved two points off Obama’s margin.

On the other hand, the chairwoman of the House Rules Committee is not going to lose a district that includes most of Rochester and a sizeable proportion of Buffalo. She can move and survive. And whilst her retirement in a bad year might give somebody like Maziarz a chance in a great Republican year in a 57% Obama district, a 59% Obama district is pretty much bulletproof.

Hopefully Louise will move and continue to win for another decade. It not, we can at least be sure that her successor will be a reliable vote.

NY 27 (Painful green): Brian Higgins – D, Chris Lee – R

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
695684	192096	130007	59	40	54	44	79	14	2	3

Not much change for Higgins’ district. It exchanges some of its sections of Buffalo for NY-28’s and swaps south-east for northern Erie (hence moving Chris Lee’s home into a district he can’t win) but retains seemingly similar lines. Blacker bits of Buffalo, however, raise Obama’s percentage here to 59%. Higgins becomes absolutely safe.

NY 26 (Dark grey): No incumbent (Chris Lee – R)

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
694230	136584	179963	42	56	46	52	94	2	1	1

The district retains the core of the old 26th, but replaces suburbs and exurbs of Rochester and Buffalo for much of the Southern Tier. All Cattaraugus and Allegany counties, plus all of Steuben bar Corning, joins eastern Erie (but not Clarence), most of Yates, half of Schuyler and south-western Ontario in the district. In return, the district gives up almost all Niagara as well as the towns of Gates, Greece and Parma.

McCain would have won this district 56-42, so any Republican ought to be safe here, but with its incumbent drawn out, there could be an interesting primary as several Republican State Senators may want to jump ship from that redistricting. Ranzenhofer in the 61st is out, as he lives in Clarence, but Volker in the 59th (just) and Young in the second both live in the district and represent much of it.

NY-25 (dark pink): Dan Maffei – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
706912	185238	136930	56	42	56	43	88	6	2	2

Maffei’s district retains Onondaga County, but otherwise is almost entirely different. Whereas previously it went westwards, towards Rochester, here it gives up northern Cayuga, Wayne and north-east Monroe to the 23rd, and heads south-east through territory largely represented by Arcuri. Absorbing all of Madison, Cortland and Chenango, plus most of Otsego and the southern half of Cayuga, it finishes up by taking a tiny sliver of Herkimmer so as to help out NY-20.

Despite its shift in orientation, the district remains at 56% Obama. Only scandal or a 1994 style wave is likely to worry Maffei.

NY-24 (blue verging on purple): Eric Massa – D, Louise Slaughter – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
698110	190684	142212	56	42	51	48	89	4	3	2

The number is Arcuri’s, but the district is made for Massa. I decided to avoid reshaping Higgins’ district too much, so I couldn’t send the district to Buffalo and needed to keep Binghamton in the 22nd to avoid imperilling Hinchey, so maintaining its orientation towards Rochester was inevitable.

However, its previous southern tier character has been largely removed, since those counties are simply too red to secure Massa. Only Massa’s home in Corning is preserved from Steuben County, from where the district heads east into Chenango and Tioga, before turning north-west.

Arcuri will miss Tompkins County, but an outspoken liberal like Massa needs somewhere like Ithaca in his district. The 24th then takes in some of the better bits of Yates and Schuyler, all of Seneca and the more heavily populated bits of Ontario, including Geneva and Canandaigua, before absorbing most of eastern Monroe, including East Rochester, as well as the 6th, 21st and 23rd wards of Rochester.

Although it stretches from Lake Ontario to the Pennsylvania border, I’d like to think it doesn’t look too horribly gerrymandered. I’m not sure many would agree with me however, and it most certainly is, since Obama got 56% here, an improvement of 8% from the old 29th and 5% from the current 24th. Short of Slaughter deciding to run here, Massa is safe.

NY-23 (mildly feverish green): Bill Owens – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
705623	149248	130941	52	46	52	47	93	3	1	2

Perhaps less a North Country district now than a Great Lakes-Canadian border district, the district drops its southern protusions in return for Wayne County, the rest of Essex County and the town of Webster in Monroe.

Although the lines are perhaps neater, the percentages don’t change much. Obama stays on 56%, whilst McCain drops a point.

Hoffman now lives in the 23rd, but his three best counties in the special election, Madison, Oneida (part) and Lewis, have now been entirely removed from the district. Wayne County is more conservative than any of them, but Owens is at least no more in danger of teabagging under this map than he is right now. Only one Republican Senator, Joseph Griffo, lives in and represents the new 23rd.

NY-22 (brown): Maurice Hinchey – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
703054	175214	139995	55	44	59	39	86	5	2	6

I think this district is an improvement on the old 22nd, although it isn’t as compact as I’d hoped. In fact it actually includes one more county than the current district.

This district isn’t as Democratic, but I don’t think Hinchey needs it. He’s a great representative, but he’s not a magnet for controversy and he’s won in tough conditions before.

It begins in Broome – which isn’t as strong as you might think, as northern Broome is conservative enough to partly balance Binghamton, before continuing into strongly Republican Delaware and Greene counties.

The bulk of the district’s population is situated to the south. Hinchey keeps all of Sullivan and Ulster counties, and has two separate bits of northern Orange – one in the north-west, taking in Port Jervis and stopping more or less where the NJ border begins, and one around Middletown, in territory he mostly already represents.

To the north, the district takes pressure off those around it by adding bits of Otsego and Schoharie to Greene and Delaware. In the east, it takes in most of Columbia County, bordering Massachusetts but also takes Schodack in Rensslaer so the 20th can take north-east Columbia.

NY-21 (red wine stain): Paul Tonko – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
703431	186093	144815	55	43	58	40	89	5	2	3

The 21st looks similar, but moves north and west to gain populationand help out the 20th. In the process it gets less Democratic, but at 55% Obama it’s hardly marginal.

Tonko keeps all of Montgomery and Schenechtady and also gains all of Fulton. To this I added bits of Herkimmer and Otsego, Saratoga south of Saratoga Springs, most of Schoharie and almost all of Albany.

Not all, however. Several wards in Albany are moved to the 20th to shore that one up. i can’t imagine state legislators are overjoyed, but at less than 100000 Albany is too small to control a district, and might actually find its influence enhanced by being split.

NY-20 (skin pink): Scott Murphy – D, Michael Arcuri – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
700948	156774	148240	51	48	51	48	91	5	1	2

This district voted for Obama, but to be honest it leans Republican. It may actually lose us two Democratic incumbents.

Either way, it loses us one. Utica and Glens Falls are combined, throwing Murphy and Arcuri into the same district.

The reasons I picked these two are various, and combine the political and the pragmatic. Firstly Upstate needed to lose a district. Secondly carving up Chris Lee makes his neighbours more vulnerable, and I wanted to keep Massa. Thirdly, rural New York east of Syracuse just doesn’t have enough strong clumps of Democrats – not unless they suddenly annex Vermont and gerrymander that in. Fourthly, Murphy is junior and Arcuri is a weak campaigner. Fifthly, they’re both Blue Dogs and Murphy in particular is an unreliable vote.

The district itself is not just a mash-up of the current 20th and 24th. Much of the 24th has been reassigned to Maffei and Massa, whilst the 20th loses its southern portions.

Instead the district begins Oneida County, housing Rome, which is surprisingly conservative for a city, and Arcuri’s home in Utica. It heads north to take in Lewis county, then takes in most of Herkimmer county (although much more in terms of area than in terms of population).

Next up is Hamilton, Obama’s worst county in the state. It’s followed by Warren, where Murphy lives, and northern Saratoga (including Saratoga Springs). The district then turns down the Vermont border. It keeps all of Washington and heads on into Rensselaer.

Here it picks up Troy and heads across the river into Albany in a desperate bid to find some Democratic votes. It drops marginal Schodack township and replaces it with heavily Democratic Chatham, Canaan and New Lebanon townships in Columbia.

The end result is a 51-48 Obama district, which both the 20th and 24th now are. However, the unfamiliar territory and heavily rural nature makes it a tough hold, however, especially in Republican years. And its more northerly orientation probably means it won’t blue as fast as Hudson Valley districts.

I can’t say for sure how the primary will go. I’d like to think Murphy’s anti-HCR vote will doom him, but he probably represents slightly more of this district already, so I’d favour him to win the primary and lose to a pro-HCR Republican that November.

NY-19 (grassy green): John Hall – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
694702	171172	132308	56	43	51	48	78	8	3	10

Hall will like this much improved district for him. It swaps much of its current incursions into Orange County for northern Dutchess, drops Carmel from Putnam and pushes south into Westchester as far as Mount Pleasant.

The end result is a 5% rise for Obama and a concommitant fall for McCain.

NY-18 (yellow): Nita Lowey – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
694795	185455	112686	62	38	62	38	65	14	5	15

Rather than throwing her district across the sound, I elected to continue the process of throwing Lowey’s district further north. It begins in Carmel and similarly conservative bits of Putnam and proceeds south into Westchester.

Skirting around Mount Kisco, Bedford and Newcastle, it then proceeds to its effective anchor – southern Westchester. It takes in more of this than it does now – the 17th gives up Mount Vernon and a bit more of Yonkers to this district. The end result is that the margins are largely unchanged for Obama and McCain.

NY-17 (dark blue): Eliot Engel – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
699892	160041	117574	57	42	72	28	67	11	4	15

Although this is the first district to cross the city lines, this isn’t really a NYC district. It’s much more of a Rockland district. It takes in the whole of that county and expands into Orange.

It then sends a thin line through Westchester, taking in the Yonkers shore, before crossing over in to the Bronx.

Containing Riverdale, Van Cortlandt Park and associated bits of the Borough, the district remains safe.

Nevertheless, whilst Engel – moderate, able to appeal to conservative Orthodox Jews and eminently suited to represented an outer suburbs district – is in no danger, the district loses enough Democrats that Obama only got 57%.

NY-16 (neon green): Jose Serrano – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
701769	170961	8917	95	5	95	5	2	32	1	62

What’s to say? This district is largely unchanged. It drops its spur into Queens, it spreads a bit further east and it loses Fordham and environs to the 15th. But it’s basically the same extremely Hispanic South Bronx district as before.

NY-15 (orange): Charlie Rangel – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
706507	200710	13410	93	6	93	6	10	30	3	55

The 15th abandons Queens and heads into the Bronx.

Beginning at Central Park, it heads through Harlem to Washington Heights, before crossing into the Fordham/University Heights area in the Bronx.

In the process, it goes from a minority-majority district to a Hispanic-majority district. At 55% Hispanic, it’s actually more Hispanic than Velazquez’s. With those kinds of numbers, it wouldn’t surprises me if the Justice Department imposes a VRA Hispanic district here anyway.

NY-14 (unfortunate brown): Caroline Maloney

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
695589	232945	55306	80	19	78	21	65	4	16	12

Continuing with my habit of confining districts to one borough, NY-14 is yet another district that doesn’t enter Queens. In exchange for its territory there, it heads further south into Manhattan, reaching as far as the Lower East Side and Chinatown.

The white population drops 8% to 65% and Obama improves two points to 80%.

NY-13 (salmon pink): Mike McMahon

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
703495	108243	75500	58	41	49	51	56	7	14	19

I know there’s no good reason to split Staten Island, but it’s fun. My only defence is that I tried to keep to existing boundaries to some extent. Lou Tobacco’s assembly district is almost entirely removed, and much of Janele Hyer-Spencer’s district is also lost.

Over the Verranzano Narrows, much more of Brooklyn has to be absorbed. Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, Gravesend and Bensonhurst stay in the district, which snakes around Borough Park to take in Sunset Park and Red Hook.

At 58% Obama, it’s probably strong enough to deal with the Staten Island backlash for screwing them over. As an added bonus, McMahon would under these lines very likely be succeeded by a Brooklyn Democrat. As a 56% white district, he might even be replaced by a Hispanic.

NY-12 (light blue): Nydia Velazquez – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
701512	138150	26924	83	16	86	13	22	10	13	51

As much a Queens district as a Brooklyn one, this district takes in Williamsburg, Bushwick, Sunnyside, bits of Woodside, South Corona and Elmhurst.

I can’t say much more about this, because I know nothing about NYC. 83% Obama can’t be bad though.

NY-11 (NY-16 green): Yvette Clarke

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
704746	203935	27185	88	12	91	9	26	54	5	11

This central Brooklyn district is the standard blacks and Republicans mixture. Ocean Park and similar dead-losses are combined with Flatbush, Crown Heights and Bedford-Stuyvesant for a 54% black and monolithically Democratic district.

Assuming I drew the lines right and Clarke doesn’t have to move, she has nothing to complain about here.

NY-10 (dark pink): Edolphus Towns

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
704474	167880	42933	79	20	91	9	30	51	5	11

This district, to my mind, looks like a man in a homburg hat vacuuming. Just so you know…

It’s the same principle as NY-11, but more so. From East New York and Brownsville, it sends a thin tendril through Canarsie into Georgetown before absorbing Republicans around Manhattan Terrace and Home Crest, before continuing on to Coney Island and Sea Crest. Only 79% Obama.

NY-9 (light blue): Anthony Weiner

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
697804	120275	87072	58	42	55	44	53	10	9	22

A conscious monstrosity, this district combines central Queens with southern Staten Island via the Rockaway Peninsula, Manhattan Beach and Marine Park. Bits of north-east Brooklyn were added in to pad the margins.

At 58% Obama, it’s not actually as much of an improvement as it might have been, and Weiner is probably a better fit for Brooklyn Jews than Staten Island Italians.

On the other hand, he does retain his Forest Hills base, the district will give him increased recognition in other boroughs if he wants to run for mayor again and Republicans aren’t about to start winning districts that are only 53% white and likely to be majority-minority by 2020.

NY-08 (purple): Jerrold Nadler – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
705168	236867	50065	82	17	74	26	61	11	8	17

I’d argue this is a substantial improvement on the current 8th in terms of logical lines, but it isn’t compact by any means. From Nadler’s home on the Upper West Side, it snakes down the west side of Manhattan and crosses the East River over the Brooklyn Bridge.

Once in Brooklyn, it takes in Downtown before marching further south into Prospect Park. By this point it’s ridiculously Democratic, such that it absorbs the majority of Borough Park and barely takes a hit for it. At 82% Obama, it’s actually one of the biggest improvements of any district. Not that Nadler needs it, of course.

NY-07 (light grey): Joe Crowley – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
704836	161725	36669	81	18	79	20	33	26	8	28

Crowley may be the Queens Democratic chair, but his new district is much more Bronx-based. He keeps Queens’ northern shore, taking in Ravenswood, Astoria, Flushing, College Point and Beechurst. He may even keep his home in Woodside, but if not the lines could be changed easily enough.

Most of his territory is in the Bronx, however. In addition to Riker’s Island, his district crosses the Whitestone Bridge to take in Schuylerville, Pelham Park, Parkchester, Co-op City and the rest of the East Bronx.

The district remains majority-minority and becomes rather more so. Whilst white are the largest group, they’re only 33%, and blacks and Hispanics are almost at parity. If Crowley retires, it’s anybody’s guess who replaces him. My money’s on DavidNYC, for the record.

NY-06 (teal): Gregory Meeks

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
697850	202891	68157	75	25	89	11	31	50	4	10

I tried the tactic of putting Oyster Bay in this district, but couldn’t make any maps I liked with it. Instead I settled for this more compact district, which is nevertheless a deliberate attempt to make irrelevant the votes of LI Republicans. Jamaica and Far Rockaway form the core of this district, and about 450000 of the district’s inhabitants are 65% black or so.

The other 250000 are mostly LI Republicans. Whilst I took in some black areas just outside the city lines, mostly I took Republican leaning areas like East Rockaway, Malverne and Franklin Square. Pockets of Democratic strength in south-west Nassau, most notable Lynbrooke, were excised.

Note that I may have described these areas wrongly, as I’m doing this from Google maps. Either way, we have a 50.2% black district that voted 75-25 for Obama. That means a lot of Republicans now have their votes wasted

NY-05 (child’s paint yellow):

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
694477	123549	81485	60	39	63	36	54	4	23	17

I’ve been much less ambitious in Long Island than some other entries. This is largely because I didn’t want to create fajita strips. I didn’t succeed entirely, but this is a district Ackerman would recognise, whereas other entires have reconfigured NY-05 much more.

The Nassau section is only very slightly changed. Most of the changes have been in Queens. It still includes neighbourhoods like Douglaston and Auburndale, but it’s been expanded further west, up to the Brooklyn border. By skating through Rego Park I drew Ridgewood and the Middle Village into the district.

In general, however, I was surprised how similar the lines were, as the 5th was one of the last districts I drew. The major change is a fairly hefty drop in the Hispanic percentage. If the district goes majority-minority, Ackerman’s replacement is more likely to be Asian than Puerto Rican.

NY-04 (red): Caroline McCarthy

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
696289	163148	111809	59	40	58	41	59	10	13	14

NY-04 is much more changed than NY-05, due to the need to remove Peter King. This is an obviously gerrymandered district, stretching well into NYC and being only one voting district wide at two separate points. On the other hand, it’s still 59% Obama, so I’m willing to forgive its aesthetic unpleasantness.

This is no longer a compact Nassau County district. In the city, it goes as far as Kew Gardens and if it doesn’t stray into Jamaica too many times, that’s only because I had to keep NY-06 black-majority.

Outside the city, it’s a mess of tendrils. It snakes its way through North Hempstead (and hopefully includes McCarthy’s home, although I won’t absolutely vouch for that, then sends one tentacle into Hempstead township and some form of stubby proto-foot into Oyster Bay.

The Hempstead one hoovers up the more Democratic portions that NY-06 – places like Lynbrooke, Freeport, South Hempstead and Uniondale. The Oyster bay stump appears to take in Levitttown, Hicksville and Farmingdale, but I could easily be wrong. It certainly takes in bits of Massapequa. This stump isn’t as Democratic as the tendril, since it isn’t designed to boost McCarthy’s numbers. It’s designed to split King’s base.

NY-03 (purple): Peter King – R

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
695671	174340	139832	55	44	47	52	73	12	3	10

This is not an unwinnable district for a Republican, but it’s not a nice one. Obama improves eight points to 55%. I wouldn’t expect King to lose by 30 points. But I would expect him to lose, especially against a strong candidate like Suozzi or Meijas, or to run statewide or retire instead.

On the North Shore, the district takes in Glen Cove and the rest of northern Oyster Bay. From there it heads south, narrowing near Plainview as 4th and 2nd both intrude upon it and continuing towards the South Shore.

Once it gets there, it diverges. One side of it goes to Long Beach, largely staying close to the coast but sending up a hook towards Bellmore. On the other side, it moves in to Suffolk, where it mostly hugs the coast through Babylon.

It doesn’t look that different. But it does look like it’ll give King headaches.

NY-02 (dark green): Steve Israel – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
694752	162562	141316	53	46	56	43	75	8	3	13

I’m not entirely happy with Long Island. I’m only submitting now because the deadline is fast approaching. And I do think that if this map has a weakness, it’s NY-02.

Not that Steve Israel is doomed. Obama still got 53% here and Israel is an entrenched incumbent whose district isn’t changed overwhelmingly. But if Long Island does become redder, he could face some tougher re-election efforts.

In Nassau, Israel keeps Plainview and the lines are mostly just neatened. In Suffolk, he takes all of Huntington and heads south-west towards Brentwood and Islip.

And if that was all he did, he’d be fine. The problem is he also takes Smithtown, and that’s a bit of an anvil for him.

Then again, he’s a Blue Dog with no trouble raising cash. Smithtown hampers him, but it shouldn’t cripple him.

NY-01 (blue): Tim Bishop – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
701716	162574	145024	53	47	52	48	84	4	2	8

Bishop’s district isn’t wildly different. It’s the same eastern Suffolk district with the same thin Democratic margins. In the north he drops Smithtown and in the south he gains some of Islip, but I didn’t make huge changes.

Because of this, the Democratic margin doesn’t change much. It improves from 52% Obama to 53%, but mostly I’m relying on Bishop’s continued good relations with his constituents.

If he’s caught up in a scandal, we’ve likely lost the district and if he retires it’ll be a close race. Otherwise, I’d say he’ll probably keep this seat without too much trouble.