MO-Sen
Blunt 49%
Carnahan 43%
I know I know, it’s Rasmussen, but still. Previously Carnahan had seemed immune to the national environment going into the toilet and had posted small but consistent leads over Blunt. Now she’s gone from being up 46-44 to down 43-49. Not good. At least it’s only January.
PA-Sen
Toomey 49%
Specter 40%
Toomey 43%
Sestak 35%
Even adjusting for the Rasmussen house effect, Specter and Sestak are at best tied or trailing slightly. Honestly, it is ridiculous that a conservative Republican previously thought to be unelectable now has 57/27 favorables. (And it’s embarrassing how he and I were born in the same city!) Toomey’s lead over Specter is up from 42-46 in December (he also led Sestak 40-46).
NY-Sen-B
Gillibrand 39%
Generic Republican 34%
Ford 10%
Yikes. If Gillibrand is only beating a generic R by 5 points if Ford runs as an independent, I’m actually kind of hoping he runs in the Democratic primary.
Unfortunately, amidst the Sestak/Specter civil war, Toomey’s managed to paint himself as the perfect candidate for Pennsylvania in 2010 – a “moderate outsider” who can appeal to Independents, wink at Republicans, and who wants to hit reset on health care. For my money, Sestak’s the only one in the Dem field who can counter Toomey with any “outsider” argument; Specter is practically the ultimate establishment/career-politician. I just cannot fathom Specter winning re-election, even though he has gotten himself out of sticky situations in the past (most notably ’92).
As far as Missouri, it’s such a wacky state, and I’d be pretty shocked if it isn’t a barnburner come election night. If I were a betting man, I’d say Blunt wins, ala Jim Talent against Mama Carnahan in ’02 – by the slimmest of margins.
I’d still put Gillibrand in Lean Dem, but Harold Ford and Bruce Blakeman may be surprisingly-potent when Independents and conservaDems seem to hate her so much. Both Ford and Blakeman will probably be pretty well-funded, so she’ll finally have to put that massive warchest to use. Of course, if Pataki gets into this, she’s done.
But in Pennsylvania, it’s not surprising. You think it is ridiculous that a conservative Republican is now favourable to win in Pennsylvania, but do you remember Rick Santorum. This Pat Toomey guy reminds me exactly of what Rick Santorum is like; he campaigns in the centre, then governs as a right winger. You should have seen this coming.
As for New York, Harold Ford running as an independent is quite laughable. The only time an independent runs is if he feels that he has a populist base of support, and Harold hailiing from the infamous Tennessee Ford dynasty doesn’t sound like someone who can connect with average New Yorkers. But if he does run, with these numbers holdiing up, then it might be a concern. Remember Don Cazayoux and Michael Jackson?