As others have commented, I had hoped that Judge Brunner would have run and held the Ohio SoS gig.
And, it is true that SOME GOPers would have been after her scalp. But I don’t give that much credence because her predecessor was just so UTTERLY incompetent that the GOP BoE members around the state secretly approved of Brunner’s performance.
And it’s more than just the ideological purists who have issues with Fisher. Although its been a few years, the last time that Lee ran statewide, to call his performance “lackluster” is being generous. He is going to have to REALLY amp up his game if he hopes to win the general.Now I see that he has fired his campaign manager. Hmmn…
And although Judge Brunner’s fundraising has been dismal, she still seems to poll pretty close to Fisher vs. the GOP candidates. And when you look at her $$, remember that ODP chair Chris Redfern and Rev. Ted have completely shut her out of “insider” money, and at this point, that’s all there is. The roots (net or otherwise) are BROKE and burned out.
Having met and chatted with Judge Brunner, I feel that her inspiration for the Senate run was Sherrod Brown. I just sense many similarities in approach and attitude.
Also, many very loyal Dems in Ohio are just sick and tired of ODP dictating statewide candidate anointing. Some of their picks have been dreadful and the results have been BAD. Going back over the last 20 years, they’ve made some REAL blunders.
It is possible that 2010 in Ohio is a disaster in the making. But, in the end, I think not.
1. Ted will hold serve. Ohioans loath voting against an incumbent, barring Coingate level scandal.
2. Even if we drop the SoS (which I grasp is a Bad Thing) we might steal the Auditor which means reapportionment stays in our hands. (But which is apparently going to be WASTED on this gentleman’s agreement nonsense of “we lose one, they lose one.”)
3. State Legislative redistricting requires that we control (pick two) Governorship (probably retain), State House (maybe retain) or pick up the State Senate (no WAY in HELL)
4. I expect that Fisher will win the primary but he’ll struggle in the fall in a race that we SHOULD win more easily than how it’s gonna turn out. If Fisher loses either race, Redfern faces a coup d’etat and probably walks the plank.
with pretty much everything you’ve posted here. I’m not quite as bullish about Strickland as you are just because his favorables have taken such a hit, but I was encouraged by the recent Ras poll that said that less than 10% are blaming him for Ohio’s economic troubles. I had previously thought that Ohioans blaming him for the economy was the whole reason for his fall, but it appears that it has more to do with the national democrats and the tide than him personally.
At this point I have both the Senate and Governor’s races as tossups, with the Senate race as possibly becoming lean Democratic if the national environment turns back our way. Portman, for all his money, is still going to need a giant red wave to carry him across the finish line because of his strong stance on free trade and his past association with Bush.
But I don’t think that his opponent’s version of trickle down neo-con ideology is going to fly. Ted won’t implode, he’ll run HARD and get through, albeit perhaps by a narrow margin.
As I said, Ohioans are downright stodgy in retaining incumbents.
So I am surprised to see pretty decent candidates lining up to run for the State Supremes. Now THAT is a kamikaze mission. I can’t imagine Ohioans voting out any of the Supremes absent HUGE scandal… Would much love it, but don’t see it happening.
But I will say, the peeps are restless. For example, Toledo now has a (sort of) independent mayor. Der Finkmeister was a raging {insert invective here} but nevertheless, given Wilkowski’s resume, he should have cruised to victory. Indeed, one Ohio blog was about to declare Keith the future of the Party, but then a funny thing happened.
Is Lucas County foretelling the collapse of the two party system? Lately, its the GOP that has organized a circular firing squad, but a few years back, Der Finkmiester and his evil minions staged a similar Beer (in this case, union) Hall Putsch and hijacked the county Democratic machine. The result was an unmitigated DISASTER and now, one of Ohio’s largest cities has a nominally independent mayor. Curiouser, and curiouser…