Can a pollster be said to be spammy?
CO-Sen (2/2, likely voters, 1/13 in parens):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 37 (37)
Jane Norton (R): 51 (49)
Other: 5 (3)
Undecided: 7 (11)Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (35)
Jane Norton (R): 45 (47)
Other: 7 (5)
Undecided: 10 (14)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40 (38)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (44)
Other: 5 (4)
Undecided: 9 (14)Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (39)
Tom Wiens (R): 42 (44)
Other: 6 (4)
Undecided: 12 (14)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (38)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (43)
Other: 5 (4)
Undecided: 8 (15)Andrew Romanoff (D): 39 (39)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (40)
Other: 6 (5)
Undecided: 10 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Sen (2/3, likely voters, 12/9 in parens):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 40 (42)
Mark Kirk (R): 46 (39)
Other: 4 (3)
Undecided: 10 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
KY-Sen (2/2, likely voters, 1/6 in parens):
Jack Conway (D): 40 (35)
Trey Grayson (R): 44 (45)
Other: 3 (7)
Undecided: 12 (12)Jack Conway (D): 39 (38)
Rand Paul (R): 47 (46)
Other: 3 (4)
Undecided: 11 (12)Daniel Mongiardo (D): 35 (37)
Trey Grayson (R): 49 (44)
Other: 5 (8)
Undecided: 11 (11)Daniel Mongiardo (D): 37 (35)
Rand Paul (R): 48 (49)
Other: 3 (3)
Undecided: 12 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Sen (2/2, likely voters, 1/11 in parens):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 41
Brian Krolicki (R): 44
Other: 7
Undecided: 8Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (36)
Sue Lowden (R): 45 (48)
Other: 8 (8)
Undecided: 8 (7)Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (36)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 47 (50)
Other: 8 (5)
Undecided: 6 (9)Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (40)
Sharon Angle (R): 44 (44)
Other: 7 (10)
Undecided: 8 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
This is only one poll, but I thought that Krolicki would be a stronger candidate than the third tier folks. I suppose Reid’s attack dogs did their work on him.
Poll Dem primaries?
any truth to that?
is predicting what the electorate will be in nov. I don’t mean what mood they’ll be in, I mean how many people will have been foreclosed upon and just decide to leave the state. between the quick boom and bust of vegas the pop is in such a state of flux there’s no telling who will show up to vote come november.
It is truly weird to see Harry Reid doing so well against relatively well-known first/second tier challenger, yet do so poorly against the more generic candidates. My two cents is that people would love to get rid of him, but dont know how!
Another factor is that Rass oversamples the TeaParty ™ people, and gets those kinds of numbers b/c they wont vote for someone as pure. Im not sure about that, but it also comes to mind.
On top of all that, youve got new voters, hispanic voters, low-income voters, all of which dont answer polls all that much. You’ve got Obama winning by 12, while the polls had him at 7. If Reid overforms like that, its a tossup… question is “can he?”
Now we may well lose this race in Novemeber, but I have a very hard time believing a low-profile former lt. governor being over 50% against an incumbent whose approval ratings aren’t good, but aren’t totally radioactive. It’s also bizarre that they have Rand Paul so far ahead of the Democratic candidates vs. Trey Grayson.
I got a kick out of this tweet from Markos:
Portman just up four points on either and perhaps more importantly Obama at 49% approval. Maybe the corner has been turned. Or at least things might not get any worse.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
I’ve been feeling he’s trying to influence recruitment and fundraising for awhile. It’s annoying.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Wow, a Dem actually leads with indies!