This is a weird bit of news, and one that’s bad news for the Democrats on two different fronts:
Wealthy car dealer Tom Ganley (R) is dropping out of the open-seat Ohio Senate race and will challenge Rep. Betty Sutton (D) in the 13th district instead, according to a source familiar with the decision.
The Ganley switch is a coup for Republicans because it gives former Rep. Rob Portman a clear path to the GOP Senate nomination and could put another Democratic-held House seat into play. A recent internal GOP poll showed Ganley leading Sutton by 3 points.
Ganley, as you might recall, was running in the GOP Senate primary against Rob Portman, to little avail. Ganley was polling in the single digits against Portman, and while he’d been reaching out to the local teabaggers in order to find a foothold, hadn’t seemed to pique any interest there. Still, Portman can now conserve all of his already-abundant cash for the general, while the Democrats continue to slug it out in their primary.
The 13th is certainly not what you’d think of as a typical Republican target; the blue-collar Akron-based district (held by Sherrod Brown prior to Betty Sutton) is D+5 and was won by Barack Obama by 15 points. That’s about the outer limit on what Republicans could hope to pick up, even under the most favorable of circumstances (and even then, probably only with a moderate, not with an aspiring teabagger). Ganley’s one ace in the hole that puts this race on the map is money: he can bring over the $1.3 million in his Senate account to the House race, which dwarfs Sutton’s $120K. However, it’s worth noting, that’s all his money (he gave himself $1.6 million during his Senate campaign and burned through some of that to run TV ads), so he might not be inclined to spend all of it.
If Ganley were to somehow win, that also raises the question of redistricting: with Ohio scheduled to lose at least one seat and maybe two, if this seat (already one of the most depopulated in the state) were occupied by a freshman, it’d probably be the first on the chopping block. Maybe not the best investment for Ganley.
needs to have “the talk” with Brunner. I don’t want to see Fisher blow through half of his war chest on her.
I say that no way in hell does Sutton lose. People may be moving out of NE Ohio like the bubonic plague has hit, but those that are still there are mostly reliable Democrats. Additionally, the area is getting even more liberal. Nearby Youngstown held its first ever GLBT Pride event last year with only one protester showing up; this could not have happened ten years ago.
Joe the Plumber. He said a while back that he was going to run against Marcy Kaptur in the even more liberal 9th District in Ohio. Whatever happened with that? That would be a fun race.
And honestly, it’s hard to imagine a Republican winning here. Betty Sutton is a hard-working, charismatic representative that is very well respected. (I would also say that she hit a big home run by sponsoring the legislation for the cash for clunkers program) With liberal-leaning cities like Akron, Elyria, and Lorain in the district, any republican would have a difficult time getting 50%+1. I think the only way Ganley would be able to manage it would be to run up gigantic margins in the affluent communities in the middle between Lorain and Akron. These cities include Brunswick, North Royalton, Brecksville, and Strongsville (my hometown). These are cities that usually vote republican, but Obama was competitive with McCain here during the 2008 election (Strongsville voted 52-46 for McCain, even though McCain/Palin made a campaign trip to Strongsville ten days before the election).
It’ll be interesting where I rate this when I get to Ohio in my house predictions. My guess is I’m not putting it anywhere near tossup, probably Likely D if I had to guess, the reason being that Ganley would have to run up at least a 2/3 majority in southern Cuyahoga/northern Medina in order to blunt Sutton’s strength in Akron and in working class areas of Lorain County to win. Sutton’s too popular for that, I think.
Interesting to see how Ganley squirms his way out of explaining why he’s challenging the congresswoman who sponsored a bill that made him a very wealthy man in 2009.
As a resident of the 13th, I don’t see Sutton losing. In her first race in 2006, she drew a challenger that alot of folks thought was top tier in Lorain mayor Craig Foltin and wiped the floor with him. This one will be closer due to climate and Ganley’s cash, but Sutton hangs on 54-46 at worst.
About Sutton’s initial election in 2006. I wasn’t as knowledgeable about politics then, but I believe that was an open seat race on account of Sherrod Brown running for the Senate (and beating Mike Dewine). She got a 61-39 victory in that race, which despite the widely democratic environment at the time, was still 11% better than the 2004 presidential vote, which was 55-44 for Kerry. Interesting that Obama didn’t move the needle much in 2008, only to 57-42, but if anything, I’d attribute that to Kerry overperforming in 2004 as he basically camped out in Ohio the last week of the election.
Also, if my memory is with me, doesn’t Tom Ganley live in Middleburg Heights? Middleburg is just north of OH-13, in OH-10, so if that’s true he’ll probably be labeled a carpetbagger before too long. I’m not sure though. Honestly, if Ganley was running against Kucinich in OH-10 instead, I’d vote for him. I’m so sick of Kucinich. He’s been in there so long and hasn’t done jack for Cleveland and it’s surrounding communities. At least Sutton works hard and isn’t totally averse to working with others, while Kucinich is just a jerk who votes down anything that isn’t 99% in line with what he wants.