SurveyUSA (3/1-3, likely voters, 10/30-11/02/2009 in parens):
Rand Paul (R): 42 (35)
Trey Grayson (R): 27 (32)
Others: 11 (15)
Undecided: 19 (18)
(MoE: 4.7%)Dan Mongiardo (D): 45 (39)
Jack Conway (D): 27 (28)
Others: 9 (18)
Undecided: 19 (16)
(MoE: 4.1%)
Interestingly, SUSA finds that the top choices of both party committees are in a serious struggle to emerge from their respective primaries. Grayson and Paul have already been engaging in an air war, with Grayson leveling some sharp blows against Paul over his shocking anti-coal rhetoric on the campaign trail. Amazingly, Grayson’s attacks aren’t seeming to make much of a dent in Paul’s progress, but given the lack of public polling of these primaries over the past few months, I suppose it’s possible that Paul sported an even bigger lead a month ago.
Meanwhile, the Democratic candidates are just starting to loosen their purse strings ever so slightly, going up with their first ads recently. Conway has a bigger supply of resources at his disposal, but he also a significant amount of ground that he needs to gain. Mongiardo is beating him handily in all regions of the state, except for Louisville (where Conway has a modest 42-34 lead). Hopefully, SUSA will be contracted to poll these races with greater frequency over the next couple of months.
In the past, SUSA used to offer up general election head-to-heads on this race. Unfortunately, they seem to have abandoned the concept and have instead elected to test the “Democratic Candidate” against the “Republican Candidate”, finding a 43-42 point race in favor of the undefined Republican. Those numbers aren’t bad, but Democrats will have to find a way to paint Paul as too weird for Kentucky in order to buck the national trend.
I have to say, if I lived in KY and it was Paul vs Mongiardo, I’d have a tough time deciding. Since I don’t, I will support the person with the R. Very Reluctantly if its Paul.
I would LOVE an explanations to how the “weird” that got kicked out of their 2008 convention in St. Paul has been able to take the lead here.
Anyone, please explain how he hasn’t been run out to the streets yet.
why is Mongiardo doing so well? it’s like his nutso Beshear-bashing tape didn’t even make a dent in his numbers.
I don’t get why Conway isn’t gaining more traction. He’s young, charismatic, Attorney General (a higher profile position than Lt. Governor,) and slightly to the left of Mongiardo. Why does Doctor Dan have such a commanding lead?
running away with the election. The fact that he isn’t gives me serious pause.
Dr. Dan is so unappealing to me that if he wins the primary, I won’t be paying much attention to this race.
Because, you forget, we are talking about Kentucky.
I suspect there’s some degree of buyer’s remorse w/r/t Bunning that is rubbing off positively on Mongiardo.
He is the only candidate of the four major candidates from a working class background. Mongiardo is viewed as an economic populist and fighter for working folks. Most KY Dem voters love him. Mongiardo actually works for people’s support. He doesn’t lay up on his fainting couch eating grapes and whining. Conway is the poster child for the political establishment – not a good thing in KY, particularly in this political environment. He thought he would roll out four or five impresive political endorsements that apparently many of you here at SSP think are sooo valuable and influential in KY politics. They’re not. Yarmuth, Chandler and Luallen, Abramson – they are all silversoon politicians like Conway and voters in KY are sick of establishment candidates like Conway and Trey Grayson. In contrast, Mongiardo has received endorsements of every state senator in Conway’s hometown of Louisville, the last four Democratic Party Chairs in Louisville and endorsements from almost every labor organization in the state, including Louisville’s Central Labor Council, the UAW with its two Ford plants in Louisville and the IUE/CWA at Louisville’s GE plant. Unbelievably, Conway spent the last year bragging about how he was the candidate of the National Democratic Party and he was supported by the Washington political insiders like Schumer and Menendez. Democrats in KY blame Washington insiders for the mess our nation is in and the fact that Conway has linked himself so closely to them was a huge blunder. To understand why Mongiardo is winning, take Bunning’s attempt to block jobless benefits last week as an example; Mongiardo personally organized and led rallies with actual people/voters in front of Bunning’s offices in Louisville and Lexington – in the freezing cold no less. Rand Paul and his Tea Party supporters held a rally at the same time / same place in support of Bunning’s actions. Mongiardo turned out more Democratic supporters than the Tea Bagger extremists. When was the last time we had a Democrat who was not intimdated by the tea baggers, a candidate willing to not only call out the tea baggers, but out organize them too? Mongiardo is fearless. He is a fighter and he works like a machine 24/7. Where was Conway you are wondering? He was in DC shooting a campaign commercial on the issue so he could air an ad claiming to be the one who was standing up for KY’s jobless. While Mongiardo was getting coverage by local media at the rallies in KY, Conway was a guest, blogging on HuffPo, doing interview with Ed on his national radio show and appearing on Hardball with Chris Matthews. In other words, Mongiardo was on the streets in KY, talking to KYians – Conway was in a DC studio talking to a bunch of talking heads and non-KY voters. And you wonder how Conway could be losing to Mongiardo. The only thing Conway can do now is dip into his trust fund and spend millions on a scorched-earth campaign in which he tries to tear Mongairdo apart. Even if he wins with that strartegy, – he loses and we lose any chance of taking the seat in KY.
Asked favorability. I would guess more people have an opinion of Mongiardo and that could make all the difference once Conway starts to use his financial advantage.
In 2004 Mongiardo received more votes than any Democrat in the history of Kentucky http://elect.ky.gov/results/ losing to Bunning by 1 point while Bush carried the state by 20.
Mongiardo has been ahead from the beginning and extending his lead during the whole race http://www.surveyusa.com
Mongiardo works harder and is a better retail politician than anyone in Kentucky since Wendell Ford. Conway is stiff and comes accross as a rich spoiled child.
Mongiardo has the best field org in Kentucky history.
Everyone that understands Kentucky Politics is for Mongiardo. The only ones for Conway are the insiders who want to make a buck off the race or as a lobbyist if Conway gets to DC.
Just the facts folks.