When Governor Charlie Crist first entered the Florida Senate race he was the definite favorite to win the Senate race. However over the next several months Republicans turned against him because we wasn’t conservative enough. Now conservative challenger Rubio is beating Crist badly in the polls, and it looks impossible for him to win the nomination.
The same thing can happen to McCain. Sure, he’s beating Hayworth in the primary polls right now. But do you really think he will still be ahead on primary election day? I think the chance of Hayworth beating McCain in the primary is 50%.
Now here’s the worst case scenario that we want to avoid: Hayworth beats McCain in the primary and then wins the general because the Dems didn’t put forward a strong candidate.
The strongest Senate candidates are usually sitting Congressmen. Arizona has 5 Democratic Congressmen. I nominate Ed Pastor. The 06-08 Democrats: Giffords, Mitchell and Kilpatrick, need to hold down their marginal House seats, and with bright careers ahead they might not want to take the risk. That leaves Pastor and Grijalva. From what I have read, Pastor is more well-liked and highly-regarded by the public. Also being from Pheonix instead of outstate should help him, in a state where the largest city is more conservative than the other parts. Also, it’s not fair, but Ed Pastor’s name sounds anglo enough to not be threatening to most white voters.
Ed Pastor, is 7 years younger than John McCain. He’s been a Congressman for 20 years. He can beat Hayworth. He just needs to run a few commercials that go something like “J.D. Hayworth is a crazy extremist who supports {insert wacky policy}. I proudly represented Arizona in Congress for 20 years and now if you elect me as your Senator I promise to fight for {something popular in Arizona and somewhat liberal}”. Then we get a reliably liberal vote from Arizona for the next 6 years. (Thanks teabaggers!)
Does he want to take the risk? If you were in this situation would you take the risk? If you take the bet then there’s a 50% chace McCain wins the primary and you are forced to retire at 67, after a 20 year career in the House. Your successor will be a reliable liberal vote. You might even be able to run for one of the new House seats after redistricting in 2012. And there’s a 50% chance Hayworth wins the primary and you become a Senator. Now your liberal vote will be in the Senate, where it’s really needed.
But maybe he doesn’t want to commute to Washington until he’s 73.
He would have to make a decision pretty soon. Allow enough time to see if Hayworth gains momentum in the Republican primary (he already is), but enter early enough to clear the Democratic field. The filing deadline is May 26.
A strong Democrat can beat a teabagger or club-for-growther who beats an incumbent Republican in the primary, even in a right-leaning state or district. Just ask Bill Owens and Frank Kratovil. Think of how sweet it will be if teabaggers make Kendrick Meek a Senator from Florida, and Ed Pastor a Senator from Arizona.
PS. If there is a poll out there that I don’t know about showing JD. Hayworth beating Ed Pastor in a hypothetical matchup, don’t take it seriously, because at this point it would only reflect name recognition. It would be similar to a generic D vs generic R poll, and on Election Day Hayworth will do much worse than a generic R.
I think the chances of McCain losing are 20 percent, tops. It’s funny, around here the only Rasmussen poll everybody believes is the one that shows Hayworth coming close to beating McCain.
There are always a certain number of Republicans in Arizona who refuse to vote for McCain, but never enough to actually oust him. It won’t happen this time either. Also, Rubio is a much stronger candidate than Hayworth is, and has been in the race a lot longer.
However, if Hayworth is the nominee, and that’s a very good possibility, I think both Rodney Glassman and potential candidate Nan Stockholm Walden could turn it into this cycle’s sleeper race.
Pastor’s probably too liberal to win statewide, even against Hayworth. Besides, is he going to give up a prime seat on the Appropriations committee just to make a suicide run? I dunno.
I think Glassman is our best shot. He’ll have the resources that he needs available to him to if Hayworth wins the primary and otherwise he’s just trying to position himself as the guy whose “turn” it is to run for AZ-08 if/when? Giffords runs for Senate in 2010 so he doesn’t have anything to lose.
Given that McCain only carried Arizona by 9% in the General Election and was kept under 50% in the Republican Primary it doesn’t seem that far-fetched to believe that he could lose to Hayworth. Their next fundraising reports should illuminate just how competitive this race is. However, have their been any polls showing a competitive election by a firm that does not rhyme with Lassmussen?
Nobody is going to beat McCain in the general election, so no sitting Congressman is going to give up a House seat for such a chancy run. Yeah, there’s the possibility that they’ll be facing Hayworth, but that’s only a 50-50 proposition at best, which isn’t good enough.
Somebody posited a while back that this would be a good race for a young, up-and-coming Democrat (though not a sitting House member, more like a state Senator) to run, because nobody would blame them if they lost to McCain and they might get to face Hayworth. That seems like a good description of Glassman (I have no idea on his age, but given the pictures on his campaign website, he looks pretty young.)
He’s an entrenched Washington insider from a very liberal district. Also, his name is pronounced “pass-TORR” with a flip at the end, so it’s not any more Anglo than Grijalva’s (not that I think that matters to independent voters in Arizona). We wouldn’t lose Pastor’s seat if he ran for Senate, but he also wouldn’t get anywhere.
The best candidate Dems have for this seat, other than Napolitano who’s no longer popular and Goddard who’s running for Governor, is former state party chair and ’06 Senate nominee Jim Pederson. Pederson performed respectably in the race against Jon Kyl (losing by only eight points), is a self-funder with hundreds of millions of dollars at his disposal, is already known and liked statewide, and wouldn’t have to give up another office to run. Pederson has been circling several races this cycle (including attempting to run for governor before realizing he’d get crushed by Goddard in the primary) and doesn’t have to get in until a June filing deadline. There’s really no point for him to start running now, since he has all the money he needs and lots of name recognition; he can sit back and watch McCain and Hayworth beat each other up.
As for other candidates, I’m a fan of Rodney Glassman, but he’s definitely a guy you run against McCain in a seat you know you’re going to lose, not someone you run against Hayworth in a serious pickup opportunity. People are saying he’s a self-funder, but that information came from an offhand comment by an unnamed Dem operative in a single news story. I know Glassman’s wealthy, but I think it’s more like a couple million dollars, not enough to spend on a campaign. I have no idea who Nan Stockholm Walden is, and she could be an okay candidate, but I don’t really think we need a self-funder who’s a college law professor and is unknown to the electorate when we’ve already got Pederson, who’s better-known and more moderate. Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, a true DINO who’s a cross between Bobby Bright and Joe Lieberman, is looking at AZ-03 rather than the Senate seat. And the other two Democratic statewide elected officials, Corporation Commissioners Paul Newman and Sandra Kennedy, are newly elected and aren’t yet ready to run for higher office. (Newman will be a fantastic candidate in a couple of years, though.)
He’s running to the far-right, just as Arlen Specter’s running to the far-left (well, for Pennsylvania, at least) in his respective primary. I think, ultimately, McCain beats Hayworth by about 2-to-1.
He can run as far to the right as he likes, the far right is still not going to forgive or forget anything in his past, and they are going to turn out in droves for this one. McCain could still win the primary, but my bet is it’s going to be close.
To McCain. It doesn’t matter how hard he runs to the right he is always a “liberal”. Still, I’d be shocked to see Hayworth beat him. But if he pulls it off Glassman seems as good as anybody. Plus, wasn’t there some talk that he could self-fund?
First off, I did enjoy reading your diary. It’s important that we all consider the numerous possibilities that could occur. Having Hayworth in the Senate is not something I want to ever happen.
However, I see a lot of differences between the Florida Senate Race and the Arizona Senate Race. McCain is a 30 year incumbent, while the Florida seat is an open seat. Also, Crist has the baggage of a weak Florida economy along with vague support for Obama’s stimulus package. In Arizona, you don’t have to worry about McCain being hit by the right on his “nay” vote. In addition, Rubio is an up and rising star within the Republican party, while Hayworth was defeated a couple of cycles ago. Rubio is much more polished than Hayworth ever will be.
I simply don’t see McCain losing to Hayworth. Sure, McCain didn’t get 50% in the Arizona Presidential primary, but a lot of that goes towards that race having multiple candidates (especially Romney, who could attractthe Mormons). I honestly thought that McCain winning 54% of Arizona against Obama was pretty significant since Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado went for Obama. Hayworth will probably get at least 35% of the vote, but I don’t see him much higher than 40%. McCain is etablished, while Hayworth is a loose cannon.
I wouldn’t want a Congressional Democrat to challenge in this race. I don’t think any of the 5 candidates are particularly electable, especially in this cycle.
No, he wouldn’t beat McCain. I’d give him more than a fighting chance if, against all odds, Hayworth pulls off that primary win. But conceding that McCain is the likely nominee, I like the idea of sticking with Glassman and raising his statewide profile. Maybe you get lucky with a win – more likely, you’ve invested in a candidate who could win two years later against Jon Kyl.
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