Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/5-7, likely voters, 7/6-8 in parentheses):
Lee Fisher (D): 43 (42)
Rob Portman (R): 39 (35)
Undecided: 18 (23)Jennifer Brunner (D): 41 (40)
Rob Portman (R): 40 (36)
Undecided: 18 (24)
(MoE: ±4%)Lee Fisher (D): 35 (22)
Jennifer Brunner (D): 26 (17)
Undecided: 39 (61)
(MoE: ±5%)
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (44)
John Kasich: 40 (39)
Undecided: 15 (17)
(MoE: ±4%)
Things may finally be coming into focus in Ohio, according to R2K; while most polls of Ohio have been notable in terms of how few people were paying attention, it’s looking like people are starting to make up their minds with the May 4 primary now approaching. On the Senate side, the “no opinion”s for Lee Fisher (41/24 favorables), Jennifer Brunner (38/26), and Rob Portman (39/30) are all down into the 30s. Fisher leads Brunner in the Dem primary and also performs a tiny bit better against Portman, probably indicative of his huge financial edge — you can’t win an election with good intentions alone.
With Barack Obama (46/45) and Gov. Ted Strickland (47/41) seeming to be recovering a bit, and HCR tolerated by the public (43 support/37 repeal), Ohio (as also seen in the last Quinnipiac poll) may be starting to seem less-bad for the Dems right now than a number of other swing states. Strickland’s 45 is still ominous given that almost everyone has an opinion on him and he has little room to grow; both these races are poised to be very close, every-vote-counts affairs in November.
quite a few more Republicans are requesting absentee ballots than Democrats. Bothers me.
Versus D+8 in 2008. Hopefully this is a sign of Research 2000 releasing more realistic turnout numbers.
Portman has been making up more ground then Fisher and Brunner, but on the other hand I noted the same thing Conspiracy did: the turnout model seems more realistic.
I’m not overly confident about this one (just due to Portman’s money advantages, the fact I’ve heard mixed things about Fisher as a candidate, etc. etc), but I’m convinced it’s going to be close, regardless of outcome. I’ll be very interested to see where the polls are in August.
this is a sign that Buckeyes are figuring out what Portman and Kasich are really about?
about the “house effect” of this poll. Those results look close to a probable tie at this point.