SSP Daily Digest: 4/29 (Morning Edition)

  • AZ-Sen: The Behavior Research Center has a poll out on the AZ-Sen Republican primary, but it was apparently taken over the course of two weeks, which is deeply odd. (This seems to be par for the course for the BRC.) Also, the sample size is just 315. Anyhow, John McCain beats J.D. Hayworth by 54-26, a bigger margin than pretty much any other poll I can recall.
  • FL-Sen: Richy rich-guy Jeff Greene has the perfect profile for these troubled times, wouldn’t you agree? He made half a billion (with a b) betting on the housing collapse and wants to run in the Dem primary against Kendrick Meek. (He’ll have to make up his mind by Friday.) Also, he’s being advised by none other than Doug Schoen and Joe Trippi. Joe Trippi is a Jedi? More like Jar-Jar.
  • PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (4/19-27, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):

    Charlie Dent (R-inc): 45

    John Callahan (D): 33

    Other/undecided: 22

    (MoE: ±6%)

    Another long survey period and small sample size, but independent polls of House races are rare things. Obama has 55% favorables. Dent is at 53-29, Callahan at 43-13.

  • Blogosophere: As part of their revamped politics section, the Washington Post says it’s creating a fifty-state blogger network. But get this: They are asking bloggers to provide content to the Post for free. What a crock. Incidentally, the Hartford Courant tried something like this a few years back (in the midst of staff layoffs), but has since pulled the plug.
  • Census: Five states on the cusp of either losing a seat (CA, NY, TX) or gaining one (AZ, FL) are at risk of losing out because of poor Census response rates. A big part of the problem is the low participation among Latinos. I didn’t know this, but apparently, Clinton halted immigration raids during the 2000 Census, something Obama refused to do. That seems really unwise to me.
  • DNC: Of the $50 million in plans to spend on the midterms, the DNC says that $20 million will be direct investments in individual races, presumably in the form of independent expenditures.
  • 51 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 4/29 (Morning Edition)”

    1. Not bad results.  Dent being at 45% offers hope, although he still has to be concerned the favorite.  PA-15 would be in the third tier of possible takeovers after DE and LA-2, and IL-10 and FL-25.

    2. Two weeks for 315 responses? Is the Behavior Research Center just some guy making phone calls in his free time and publishing his results? That’s ridiculous.

    3. Obama, as a black man, could never get away with halting immigration raids during Census time.  Totally necessary, but he would’ve been skewered.

      Sucks for them, and Latinos overall.  But lucky for MN, and it’ll be more fun just redistricting Bachmann out of her district without necessarily needing to.  She does lives all the way on the southeastern edge compared to her NW base so she almost needs to be screwed with regardless as there will probably be a need for another more solidly suburban seat like MN-3 due to population growth.   🙂  (And that’s a giant shit-eating grin.)

    4. Austin Scott (R-Tifton) a state representative running a long-shot bid for Governor today dropped out of that race to run for Congress against Jim Marshall (D-08). There are already other Republicans in the race and even if Scott makes it out of the primary he is from the south part of the district (which stretches from ATL suburbs to nearly the FL state line) which will make it difficult for him to compete in the major population center around Macon (Bibb County) where Marshall was mayor before becoming Congressman. Overall I think Marshall will be ok, winning 55-45 or so, considering his previous tough campaigns and his conservatism.  

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