IA-Sen, IA-Gov: Grassley Under 50, Culver Still in Real Trouble

Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (5/3-5, likely voters, 2/15-17 in parens):

IA-Sen:

Roxanne Conlin (D): 40 (35)

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 49 (56)

Undecided: 11 (9)

(MoE: ±4%)

These are nice numbers for Roxanne Conlin, who is still unknown to 20% of likely vteros. However, R2K’s polling (including their first poll of this race for Daily Kos) has really bounced around a lot. In October of last year, it was Grassley +12, then Grassley +21 in February, and now Grassley +9. I’m not really sure there’s an explanation for this gyration. (And as far as I understand, R2K used the same methodology for both clients – and you can see that the question wording is the same, too.)

IA-Gov:

Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (38)

Terry Branstad (R): 48 (54)

Undecided: 11 (8)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 44 (41)

Bob van der Plaats (R): 40 (38)

Undecided: 16 (21)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 46 (48)

Rod Roberts (R): 36 (26)

Undecided: 18 (26)

(MoE: ±4%)

Again, a lot of bouncing in the toplines: Branstad +5 to Branstad +16 to Brandstad +7. The latest survey is good news for Culver, sure, but that’s a bit like saying Dukakis did better than Mondale – the numbers still suck.

21 thoughts on “IA-Sen, IA-Gov: Grassley Under 50, Culver Still in Real Trouble”

  1. It’s hard for me to picture state GOP faves like Grassley and Branstad not claiming victory in this cycle, but I suppose Conlin’s a decent Dem recruit and Culver’s not THAT horribly unpopular.

  3. The three Republican candidates have been criss-crossing the state bashing Culver non-stop for months. They’ve had lots of coverage in local press/media bashing Culver. Branstad has been on the air for about four weeks with ads in all the major Iowa markets. Honestly, I am surprised Culver has made up any ground in this poll.

    I expect another Des Moines Register poll by Selzer before the June 8 primary. It will be interesting to see the Culver/Branstad numbers there. Culver was extremely low in the last Selzer poll in January.

  4. Compared with previous  minus 21 for Conlin and minus 16 for Culver – almost great. Leans Republican for Governor and, probably, likely Republican for Senate (taking into account Grassley experience), but nothing lost yet…

  5. You can argue that this poll is an outlier and not to be trusted, but you can’t dis the results for Culver on their own terms.  Your Dukakis parallel makes no sense.  It would make sense if this poll were in late October, when it’s too late.  But 6 months out, shaving the deficit in half is HUGE and stunning.

    That said, desmoinesdem’s caution in her comment below is a wise one, in suggesting R2K might be way off here.  There’s nothing I know of (and I’m a native Iowan with family there and I still pay attention to what goes on) going on in the state that suggests the trajectory of the race should’ve changed in Culver’s favor in recent weeks.

    But, if there’s one rational explanation for Culver’s improved numbers, it could be an improving economy.  Other pollsters, even Rasmussen in a couple places, have had better numbers for Democrats in a few recent polls in other states, and the improving economy might be a factor.

    Of course, the flip side is that the seeming improvement for us is just meaningless statistical noise, and this new R2K poll in particular an erroneous outlier……we can’t write off that possibility.

  6. Lifting from my Bleeding Heartland post:

    One problem with the poll is the partisan makeup of the sample: 33 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans and 38 percent Independents. That’s quite different from the proportion of Iowans who cast votes in the 2006 general election (pdf file available here): 37 percent were Democrats, 37 percent were Republicans, and 26 percent independents. I would be very surprised if the voter universe this November had a plurality of no-party voters.

    Both Grassley and Branstad led comfortably among no-party voters in the new KCCI poll, so if that poll over-sampled independents, the Republican leads in the Senate and governor’s race might be even smaller than they appear. On the other hand, there’s no guarantee that this November’s voter universe will contain more Democrats than Republicans, as this poll assumes. Iowa Democrats still have a voter registration advantage of about 100,000 over the GOP, but Republicans may benefit from an “enthusiasm gap.”

Comments are closed.