Kentucky, Pennsylvania & Arkansas Primary Results Thread

9:43pm: We’re just chewin’ ’em up and spitting ’em out, huh? Let’s move this conversation over here.

9:34pm: So our model is still liking Conway, to the tune of 7,700 votes. Serious squeaker, though.

9:27pm: I’m gonna guess Paul Kanjorski will hang on. With 28% in, he has 53% of the vote, while the once-touted Corey O’Brien is barely ahead of no-name Brian Kelly, 25-22. Numbers look rather like the IL-03 primary against Dan Lipinski in 2008.

9:25pm: I’m loving it – Keith Rothfus is absolutely hammering GOP establishment fave Mary Beth Buchanan, 64-36 with 25% reporting in PA-04.

9:23pm: 19% reporting in PA now, and Specter leads Sestak by 52-48.

9:20pm: With 25 precincts in, Mark Critz leads Burns by 59-39. These are some Dem-friendly precincts though, but Critz is holding down decent margins here based on our model.

9:17pm: With 3068 precincts in, Conway leads by only 45-42 (or just over 12K votes), but jeffmd is currently projecting Conway to win by 8,000.

9:15pm: Wow, look at Dem Rep. Tim Holden. With 18 precincts in, the guy’s getting spanked by 59-41.

9:13pm: 17 precincts are now in for PA-12, and Critz leads Burns by 59-38. This is fairly Dem-friendly turf, though.

9:10pm: Our latest projection has Conway ultimately winning by something around 4,000 votes.

9:09pm: 2846 precincts are now in, and Conway is now back up over 20,000.

9:05pm: With 2805 precincts in, Conway’s lead has dipped just below 20,000 votes. Our projection is still pointing to a 44-44 result.

9:03pm: Specter’s up by 58-42 with just 7% in.

9:00pm: 2751 precincts are reporting in Kentucky (leaving 824 on the table), and Conway’s up by 46-41, or just over 20,000 votes.

8:59pm: Heh — with just 7 precincts reporting in Arkansas, DC Morrison has 18%, and Halter leads Lincoln by 42-40.

8:54pm: Hoo boy — the abacus crew at SSP World HQ tells me that the latest projection shows a 44-44 race in Kentucky, with Conway winning a squeaker by 3,000 votes. However, we admit that our methods are crude.

8:50pm: Back in Kentucky, with 2654 precincts in (out of 3575), Conway still leads by 47-41 — or just under 22,000 votes.

8:47pm: You can also find the PA-12 special election results buried far down this page. They have Critz up by 59-41 in the single precinct reporting.

8:45pm: For PA-12 special election results, keep this link handy. Lots of other links are showing the primary nums.

8:43pm: We’re now up to 2377 precincts in Kentucky, and Conway leads Mongiardo by 47-41 (or about 23,000 votes).

8:41pm: KY-Sen turnout (so far): 328K voters in Dem primary, 212K in the GOP primary.

8:40pm: 2281, and it’s tightened to 47-40.

8:36pm: We’ve got 2237 precincts outta the oven in KY, and Conway still leads by 48-40. (Just 36 uncounted Jeffco counties, for those keeping score, though Conway is doing well enough in some of the smaller counties, too.)

8:32pm: The polls have just closed in Arkansas.

8:30pm: With 4 precincts reporting in PA, Sestak leads Specter by 131 votes to 114.

8:28pm: We’ve got two competing spreadsheets running by the eggheads at SSP Labs. One is projecting a 45-43 Conway win — the other a 46-42 Conway win.

8:25pm: 2009 precincts are now in, and Conway’s still sitting at 48-40. That includes almost all of Fayette County now, where Conway won by 52-38.

8:23pm: The boys down at SSP Labs tell me that Conway is, very crudely, projected to win by 45-43 right now. Variations in turnout could muck that one up, though.

8:21pm: 1845 precincts in — over half of the vote now — and Conway leads Mongiardo by 48-40. There’s only 60 precincts left in Jeffco to count, while Fayette still has 91 precincts taking a ganja break.

8:18pm: Hmmm — some voters were accidentally given two ballots in PA-12. Well, let’s hope that this one doesn’t come down to 178 votes!

8:15pm: 1703 precincts are now in, and Conway’s up by 48-39.

8:11pm: For whatever it’s worth, our crude back-of-the-envelope analysis has switched from predicting a Mongiardo win to a Conway victory. Conway’s also posting a narrow lead in Daviess County, home of Owensboro.

8:09pm: 1614 precincts are in, and Conway is holding onto his 49-39 lead over Mongiardo.

Polls have just closed in Pennsylvania. We’re still tracking the results in KY-Sen (D) and will bring you PA results as soon as they roll in. Arkansas (8:30pm ET) and Oregon (11pm ET) close later.


RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps

190 thoughts on “Kentucky, Pennsylvania & Arkansas Primary Results Thread”

  1. home of Owensboro, Kentucky’s third city and the barbecue mutton capital of the world.  Mmmmm…

    He’s also pulling good margins in the counties surrouding Louisville and Lexington.  I think he’s going to get it – knock on wood.

  2. Go Flyers!!!! (sorry Pens fans)

    Both Specter and Sestak better hope Philly area sports fans hit up the polls before making some wings and watching the 7pm game (and in the rain, not likely)…

  3. that being said, even I, as a pessimist, am impressed with how Conway’s doing. he may pull this one out yet. Too early to call anything though.

  4.  Is that he is winning rural counties in Central Kentucky. Although there are Mongirado counties that need to report more, they might not be enough.

    Also, most of the Central Kentucky counties have reported.  

  5. The final result seems pretty similar to what all the polls were showing.

    Also Conway is doing much better than I expected. Still about 50% of the state needs to poor in. What is the path to victory for Mongiardo?

  6. To watch: Cambria County, particularly in the Johnstown area, and in Westmoreland county, particular in the New Kensington area.

    Critz needs these.  

  7. Conway is ahead in Bowling Green (Warren) and Owensboro (Daviess).  

    Warren: with 47/64 reporting, Conway leads 51-38

    Daviess: With 35/85 reporting, Conway leads 44-43

    How will Paducah (McCracken) (0/57) go?  

  8. Many have been saying that Specter’s key to victory is in Philadelphia. However what about other major cities like Pittsburgh? Are they also major Spectar/Rendell Machine cities or is it only Philly?

  9. Conway’s done very well in a swath from southern Ohio hugging the river to Louisville and south through central KY to the Tennessee border. Was he expected to do this well in many of these rural counties?

  10. Watching CNN everyone is acting as if Paul is a shoo-in in the general.  But right now he’s actually running 3rd behind both Democrats.  Now, Democratic primary voters often vote Republican in the general.  But, when PPP is showing that a plurality of the Grayson voters will vote Democratic in fall, I think it’s entirely possible that the Democrat (hopefully Conway) could actually win big come November.  Now what would that do to all the talking heads?  🙂

  11. both Conway and Mongiardo received more votes than Rand Paul.  i have been out of the loop for awhile and thought the Kentucky race was all about the GOP primary.  shows what i know

  12. the AP link seems to be slightly faster than the PA SOS link. (PA-12 special is at the bottom of the AP page, between the PA-19 primary and PA-Sen D primary.)

  13. based on what I can extrapolate from the early Philly results are that Specter will win the Philly burbs narrowly. That means that Sestak needs monster margins from W. PA.

    This is going to be a late night IMO.  

  14. He is still leading by 22,000 vote and 73% of the vote is in. For Mongirado to win, he needs to get the rest of the vote by about 20 points (at the least) and with at least a few precincts still in Jefferson County, I do not see that happening.

    Also, results from Mongirado are starting to come.  

  15. against Chris Matthews for his blatant anti-Clinton bias, but these anti-Specter rants are truly juvenile. I know his childhood dream is to be a senator, but don’t whine constantly about how the guy who holds the seat you want.

    Sorry I just had to put this out there.

  16. Looks like Halter is up by 4%

    And Jim Holt (!) is in a tight third against Baker

    One thing puzzles me though, in terms of turnout, it looks like dems are crushing the repubs in the AR primary, I thought that the GOP primary was hotly contested?  What happen?

  17. It’s really early, but it looks like Wagner is hurting Onorato. Wagner is pulling in 35% in Allegheny County, where Onorato was a county supervisor. Williams is dominating in his base in Philly. Williams has the early lead. (And my boy, Hoeffel, is going to struggle to get in the teens)

  18. Sestak actually winning Allegheny with a quarter of the vote in 52-48; Specter looks like he’ll get a 2-1 majority out of Philly (maybe 60,000 votes doing some simple extrapolation).

    Sestak winning Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre) 54-45 with half in, this has to be good result for him.

  19. His deficit with Conway has narrowed significantly. I know nothing about Kentucky, so what does Mongiardo need to do take back a win?

    And if there is a runoff how nasty could it get? I remember Conway an Mongiardo going at it pretty harshly earlier this year, but I’m afraid of what an extended recount could do.

  20. Diana Irey just got me some results. Five precincts reporting from a 3-to-1 Democrat area in the city of Washington, Critz 803 (55%), Burns 667 (45%). And this indicates . . .? “He’s gonna win,” Irey says – “he” meaning Burns, of course.

    This is from a conservative blog though.  

  21. Just flipped HARD for Sestak as 15% of precincts came in. He’s spanking Specter all over the state so far except Philly. If DelCo goes Sestak, then the rest of the Philly burbs probably aren’t far off…

  22. It was only a matter of time before his parts of the state caught up with Philly’s fast reporting.

    I was never really sure who I supported in the PA-Sen race (although Sestak’s comments about supporting Specter were kind of douchey IMO) but it doesn’t matter since I don’t live there. Either way, for better or for worse, I see good signs for Sestak.

  23. 30 of 44 precincts in.

    CRitz 56%

    Burns 40%

    FWIW Mutha won this county 53-47 in 2008.

  24. If Mongiardo loses by a few thousand votes as the SSP model is projecting he will concede but what if the separation is only in the hundreds?

    Momentum-wise it seems that Sestak will win just as narrowly as Conway is. Anyone know the votes from Pittsburgh? Is Spectar crushing Sestak there like in Philadelphia?  

  25. Fayette County

    55% in

    Critz 61%

    Burns 38%

    Critz is up in every county I could find results for. (The county websites are well ahead of the AP)

  26. To call Kentucky for Conway. I do not see Mongirado making up a 7,000 vote deficit here. He has to win the rest of the vote by about 30 points and with Louisville not quite done yet, this will be too hard to do in my opinion.  

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