9:43pm: We’re just chewin’ ’em up and spitting ’em out, huh? Let’s move this conversation over here.
9:34pm: So our model is still liking Conway, to the tune of 7,700 votes. Serious squeaker, though.
9:27pm: I’m gonna guess Paul Kanjorski will hang on. With 28% in, he has 53% of the vote, while the once-touted Corey O’Brien is barely ahead of no-name Brian Kelly, 25-22. Numbers look rather like the IL-03 primary against Dan Lipinski in 2008.
9:25pm: I’m loving it – Keith Rothfus is absolutely hammering GOP establishment fave Mary Beth Buchanan, 64-36 with 25% reporting in PA-04.
9:23pm: 19% reporting in PA now, and Specter leads Sestak by 52-48.
9:20pm: With 25 precincts in, Mark Critz leads Burns by 59-39. These are some Dem-friendly precincts though, but Critz is holding down decent margins here based on our model.
9:17pm: With 3068 precincts in, Conway leads by only 45-42 (or just over 12K votes), but jeffmd is currently projecting Conway to win by 8,000.
9:15pm: Wow, look at Dem Rep. Tim Holden. With 18 precincts in, the guy’s getting spanked by 59-41.
9:13pm: 17 precincts are now in for PA-12, and Critz leads Burns by 59-38. This is fairly Dem-friendly turf, though.
9:10pm: Our latest projection has Conway ultimately winning by something around 4,000 votes.
9:09pm: 2846 precincts are now in, and Conway is now back up over 20,000.
9:05pm: With 2805 precincts in, Conway’s lead has dipped just below 20,000 votes. Our projection is still pointing to a 44-44 result.
9:03pm: Specter’s up by 58-42 with just 7% in.
9:00pm: 2751 precincts are reporting in Kentucky (leaving 824 on the table), and Conway’s up by 46-41, or just over 20,000 votes.
8:59pm: Heh — with just 7 precincts reporting in Arkansas, DC Morrison has 18%, and Halter leads Lincoln by 42-40.
8:54pm: Hoo boy — the abacus crew at SSP World HQ tells me that the latest projection shows a 44-44 race in Kentucky, with Conway winning a squeaker by 3,000 votes. However, we admit that our methods are crude.
8:50pm: Back in Kentucky, with 2654 precincts in (out of 3575), Conway still leads by 47-41 — or just under 22,000 votes.
8:47pm: You can also find the PA-12 special election results buried far down this page. They have Critz up by 59-41 in the single precinct reporting.
8:45pm: For PA-12 special election results, keep this link handy. Lots of other links are showing the primary nums.
8:43pm: We’re now up to 2377 precincts in Kentucky, and Conway leads Mongiardo by 47-41 (or about 23,000 votes).
8:41pm: KY-Sen turnout (so far): 328K voters in Dem primary, 212K in the GOP primary.
8:40pm: 2281, and it’s tightened to 47-40.
8:36pm: We’ve got 2237 precincts outta the oven in KY, and Conway still leads by 48-40. (Just 36 uncounted Jeffco counties, for those keeping score, though Conway is doing well enough in some of the smaller counties, too.)
8:32pm: The polls have just closed in Arkansas.
8:30pm: With 4 precincts reporting in PA, Sestak leads Specter by 131 votes to 114.
8:28pm: We’ve got two competing spreadsheets running by the eggheads at SSP Labs. One is projecting a 45-43 Conway win — the other a 46-42 Conway win.
8:25pm: 2009 precincts are now in, and Conway’s still sitting at 48-40. That includes almost all of Fayette County now, where Conway won by 52-38.
8:23pm: The boys down at SSP Labs tell me that Conway is, very crudely, projected to win by 45-43 right now. Variations in turnout could muck that one up, though.
8:21pm: 1845 precincts in — over half of the vote now — and Conway leads Mongiardo by 48-40. There’s only 60 precincts left in Jeffco to count, while Fayette still has 91 precincts taking a ganja break.
8:18pm: Hmmm — some voters were accidentally given two ballots in PA-12. Well, let’s hope that this one doesn’t come down to 178 votes!
8:15pm: 1703 precincts are now in, and Conway’s up by 48-39.
8:11pm: For whatever it’s worth, our crude back-of-the-envelope analysis has switched from predicting a Mongiardo win to a Conway victory. Conway’s also posting a narrow lead in Daviess County, home of Owensboro.
8:09pm: 1614 precincts are in, and Conway is holding onto his 49-39 lead over Mongiardo.
Polls have just closed in Pennsylvania. We’re still tracking the results in KY-Sen (D) and will bring you PA results as soon as they roll in. Arkansas (8:30pm ET) and Oregon (11pm ET) close later.
- Arkansas: Associated Press | AR SoS | Politico
- Kentucky: Associated Press | KY SoS | Politico
- Pennsylvania: Associated Press | PA SoS | Politico | PA-12 Special