I sincerely hope that you are not getting sick over analysis of the special election to replace the late Jack Murtha. Because I have taken some time to look over the race and what I think it means for 2010 as a whole.
When I first heard the tragic news of Congressman Murtha I felt sorrow for the loss of a veteran Congressman and ex Marine but at the same time I couldn’t help but think in the back of my mind about the possible loss of the seat. I was somewhat perplexed at the time on why we chose his former district director rather than an ex Governor or ex State Treasurer who both appeared at first glance to be far superior candidates than the highly unheard of Mark Critz.
This race was instantly thought to be a highly competitive and would be a potential look ahead at the upcoming 2010 elections. The district had the oddity of being the only one that was won by Democrat John Kerry in 2004 but lost by Barack Obama in 2008. While it appears to be Democrat on a local level it is obvious to me that the district is slowly trending away from us. I think Murtha would have likely retired in 2012 if he would not have passed away.
Now to the fun part actually putting some analysis to this race. Critz ran a GREAT campaign. He was a fairly likeable candidate and was able to create a good message of being a populist with a clear independent streak in terms of social issues which played well with the many social conservatives in the district. He knew the district; what the district was like and what he would have to do to get elected. He knew residents were upset at national Democrats and HCR and pretty much anything that had to do with Washington DC. He was able to all of this even when national Republicans poured A LOT of money into this district.
He was a GOOD candidate. Thank gosh someone was able to see it in him during the selection process. I think the overall lesson we can take from this to put towards the midterms is quality of candidate. I do believe a Democrat who knows what he or she is doing can win an R+5 district and a Republican a D+5. It’s all about the candidate. If a candidate knows what is popular and what is not in the district and knows how to play on these issues then they have a great shot of winning despite party label. For example I don’t think anyone honestly believed the Republicans had any shot whatsoever of winning Massachusetts when Ted Kennedy died. However little did they know the sacrificial lamb they put up turned out to be a great candidate who related to the people and knew his stuff while his opponent took a relaxing vacation and probably measured the drapes for her Senate office. Brown won, and he won not because of hatred of the President or Democrats in general but rather the voters attraction to him, who they could relate to as being the outsider who drove a truck.
Critz knew just how hard hit the district was on an economic level so he ran a campaign focused on job creation and stressing his difference from national politicians which are all popular things in his district. It is all about the candidate and how they introduce themselves to the voter. If Democratic incumbents in tough districts talk about all the positive popular things they have done then I don’t think 2010 will be nearly as bad as everyone seems to think. Run as someone who voted for tougher sanctions on Wall Street who has fought for job creation and economic development. Assuming they voted in favor of Health Care Reform talk about the positives it has and how it will help the people and paint the opponents of it as being pro insurance companies and against the highly popular aspects of reform like treating pre-existing conditions and letting children stay on the family policy until they are 28. If all candidate can do what Critz did and run a good campaign then we will do great in 2010.
The point of this diary is a good candidate should not be written off just because it’s a tough district or state in a seemingly Republican year. We should not be scared of 2010 but excited. We have many great pickup opportunities and should not just do defense but a little offense as well. I know not every one can run a campaign similar to that of Brown and Critz but we should not write any race off just yet. Anything can happen after all. It just depends on the campaign someone runs.
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…unforeseen events hurting us.
Like, the oil spill becoming a political albatross. It’s not been that yet, but this thing is dragging on for so long that I don’t write off the possibility.
A successful terrorist attack also could hurt us, although that’s much more a wildcard. Not everyone will be as willing to rally around the Government now as after 9/11 because there was a consensus that no one could have seen 9/11 coming; now, the feeling is the Government knows to look out for this stuff and stop it before it happens. Republicans en masse would exclusively make political hay out of it.
A drop in the economy is another thing that could happen. Initial unemployment claims shot up disturbingly last week, and European debt fears aren’t completely allayed. There’s plenty that could go wrong in a New York minute.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not expecting any of this to happen. But I’m cognizant there are real risks in unforeseen events, not unlike the financial crash destroying Republicans in 2008.
If nothing like the above or anything else happens to cripple us politically, and if the economy actually continues its slow and steady climb, then I expect we’ll hold both chambers and leave the GOP disappointed come November.