AL, MS & NM Results Thread #2

2:30am: It looks like we won’t have any resolution tonight on AL-Gov (R). The good people of Cleburne County have apparently gone home for the night, leaving that county’s 17 precincts unreported. Those are the only precincts outstanding in the state. So, until then, Bentley and James are at 25% each, but Bentley is leading by 140 votes. We’ll see if they figure this out tomorrow.

1:48am: I want some of what they’re smoking down in Cleburne County, Alabama. It’s been six freakin’ hours, dudes!

1:25am: So now that the AP has accounted for empty precincts in Mobile, our projection has shifted to Dr. Rob Bentley by 97 votes instead of Fob James by 2500+ for the second runoff ticket.

1:08am: And the AP finally gets off the pot and calls AL-05 (R), despite that one outstanding precinct in Jackson Co. Mo Brooks wins it without a runoff, at 51%.

12:51am: AP finally brings some closure to AL-02 (R). Runoff for Roby and Barber. Roby just missed the cutoff at 49%.

12:47am: Wow, Bentley moves back into 2nd place in AL-Gov (R). Only a 150 vote lead, though.

12:40am: Our model has James taking the 2nd spot in the runoff, with his lead over Bentley projected to edge up to 2,700.

12:37am: AP has Byrne definitely making the R Gov runoff. In the 2nd place scramble, Tim James is edging ahead of Bentley. They’re tied at 25, but now James has a 150 vote edge. 95% reporting.

12:35am: AP calls AL-07 as runoff for Sewell and Smoot.

12:28am: 100% have reported in the 7th, although no call from the AP yet. Still Sewell 37, Smoot 29, with Hilliard missing the runoff at 27.

12:22am: It’s over in AL-05 as Parker Griffith has conceded to Mo Brooks. Brooks will face Dem Steve Raby in November. What a monumentally stupid idea this party switch was — and kudos to DavidNYC for his astute post on this idiocy back in December. Parker Griffith Can Lose.

12:11am: SSP Labs’ mainframe is spewing out punch cards telling us that we can call a Sewell/Smoot runoff in AL-07. Right now it’s Sewell 37, Smoot 29, Hilliard 27.

12:02am: Bradley Byrne is putting a little distance on the rest of the crowd in AL-Gov (R). He’s at 28, with the real battle, to make 2nd and get into the runoff, between James and Bentley at 25 apiece. Bentley has an edge of about 1,400. 91% are reporting.

11:59pm: In AL-02, with 93.5% in, Martha Roby has climbed up to 49.1% thanks to the Montgomery vote coming in. I’m not sure if there’s enough out there to get her over the hump outright tonight, though.

11:55pm: Some downballot local color: George Wallace Jr. loses the GOP Treasurer primary to a fellow by the name of Young Boozer.

11:43pm: A big clot of Sewell votes showed up in AL-07. She’s up to 37 now, with Smoot at 29 and Hilliard at 27. So the real battle here is whether Smoot or Hilliard makes the runoff. (And hopefully Smoot/Hilliard consolidates all the non-Sewell votes.)

11:41pm: Another seesaw in AL-Gov. Bradley Byrne is back on top at 27, and now Bentley is in 2nd at 26. Tim James is at 25, and only 700 back from Bentley. Roy Moore’s at 20. Good thing or bad thing? (Byrne is probably the toughest GOP opponent for the general, but also the least crazy, as far as actual good governance goes, if he wins the general. Also, would the James and Moore backers go to Bentley in the runoff, helping him to complete the upset?)

11:39pm: Man, even if you thought that Artur Davis would lose tonight, I don’t think that him losing by over 20 points was on anyone’s mind.

11:29pm: The AP has called the MS-01 primary for state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, who narrowly avoided a runoff with 51% of the vote. Nunnelee faces Travis Childers and his mighty ‘stache of doom in November.

11:27pm: The D AL-07 primary is a great horserace too. Right now Smoot and Sewell are both at 32, with Hilliard at 28. Smoot’s edge is 300 votes over Sewell. With about three-quarters reporting, Hilliard is back another 2,000, so making the runoff is looking less likely.

11:22pm: The R primary in AL-Gov just keeps being the most exciting race of the night. With 2057 of 2843 in (72%), it’s James at 26, Byrne at 25, and Bentley at 25. James up 2,000 over Byrne, who in turn is up 300 over Bentley. Hangin’ judge Roy Moore not that far back at 21%.

11:20pm: Looks like the polls were right about AL-AG, at least. Challenger Luther Strange is whomping troubled incumbent Troy King in the GOP primary, 61-39.

11:16pm: Only county outstanding in MS-01, which will tell us whether Nunnelee clears 50%, is Clay County. That’s only one county over from the county where Eupora (the town where Ross was mayor), but with only 14 precincts, I can’t see that being the tipping point.

11:11pm: More like the Land of Disenchantment for Allen Weh. He’s conceding the R gube primary in New Mexico, after spending $1.6 mil on it.

11:09pm: The SSP Labs model is calling MS-01 for Nunnelee without runoff (looks like that last-minute Sarah Palin endorsement for McGowen [sic] didn’t pay off). And, it’s saying AL-02 will come down to Roby/Barber runoff.

11:06pm: This will no doubt change, but at this instant in time, 2 (two) votes separate Tim James (84,497) and Bradley Byrne (84,495) in 1st and 2nd. Bentley is back in 3rd, trailing by 2,000 more. It’s 26-26-25, with 1887 of 2843 in.

11:04pm: The AP has called the R primary in NM-Gov for Susana Martinez. She’ll face Diane Denish in November.

10:57pm: Based on our model, SSP Labs is feeling confident to call AL-05 without a runoff in favor of Brooks. Griffith’s party switch goes down with the Edsel and New Coke in the pantheon of bad ideas.

10:55pm: Pretty much simultaneously, AP calls AL-Gov D primary for Sparks, and Davis concedes. Running to the right doesn’t win you a Dem primary, even in Alabama.

10:53pm: Not much change in New Mexico, although we’re up to almost one-third reporting. Martinez leads Weh 51-29.

10:50pm: AP calls AL-05 for Steve Raby, who crushed Taze Shepard 62-22.

10:41pm: The people who don’t give a rrrrip about Alabama are out in force tonight. Dale Peterson is deep in third at 26%, with a McMillan/Grace runoff likely.

10:37pm: Bradley Byrne just found a bunch of votes. He’s up 700 over Tim James, and about 2400 over Bentley with nearly 50% of precincts reporting. Meanwhile, Sparks leads Davis by 65-35.

10:34pm: SSP Labs update: In AL-05, we’re projecting brooks with 50.5%, 709 over a runoff. In MS-01, we’re projecting Nunnelee to escape a runoff with 51.2% of the vote.

10:30pm: Over in MS-01, with 88% reporting, Alan Nunnelee is still hovering at 51.1% of the vote.

10:29pm: The AP calls AL-06 for Spencer Bachus. Wasn’t close at all in the end.

10:23pm: Here’s one more bad sign for Artur Davis: Macon County, which is 84% black, is now all in. Davis only won 47% of the vote there tonight.

10:21pm: Another lead change in AL-07, where it’s neck and neck and neck. Shelia Smoot has moved ahead at 34%, with Terri Sewell at 32, and Earl Hilliard Jr. at 27 (and Bozeman a non-factor at 8). But, as we close in on halfway reported, the runoff could be any combination of the 3.

10:19pm: In AL-05, we’re projecting Brooks with 50.6%, 764 over a runoff. Keep in mind this is something of a crude model, though. It should be close.

10:18pm: The AP has called the R primary in MS-04 for Steven Palazzo.

10:15pm: Over in the Land of Enchantment, it’s a good night for Susana Martinez. She’s at 50%, with 101 of 1509 reporting. Allen Weh is in 2nd at 32%. Pete Jr. is at a whopping 6%.


RESULTS:

197 thoughts on “AL, MS & NM Results Thread #2”

  1. The county is 75% black, and with half the vote in, Sparks is up almost 2-1.  If this holds, I think this is a very strong message that even though they may be especially socially more conservative, Democrats (black and white) still vote for Democrats who they percieve as supporting their economic interests.

  2. has some merit.

    Kentucky and Arkansas, and now Alabama.  The Dem turnout is more left than the polls have shown.  (NC didn’t have as clear a ideological difference.)

  3. AL voters are voting down the gas inquiry amendment. Never would of thought that. And 39-61 at that.

    And good news in SD-28, where possible party-switcher Ford is ahead by two points, 38-36, with one third in; this will be a runoff, with hopefully a good result.

  4. You really should’ve voted for HCR bud.  Voting against HCR in a D+18 district = fail.  The base is certainly speaking to that here tonight.  

  5. I mean if he is not only winning an overwhelming margin of white Democrats but many black Democrats, what chance does Davis have. Does he have a stronghold somewhere that hasn’t been counted yet?

    I would say it would be amusing if Davis loses the statewide black primary vote to Sparks.

  6. If the other two candidates don’t give a rip about Alabama then who will Peterson endorse in the runoff? My guess – his horse 🙂

  7. As much as I’d like to see Griffith humiliated, maybe Brooks getting 49% is even better for the humiliation factor… and even if Griffith managed to win the runoff, lots of folks would be pissed off at him.

  8. After further thought, Griffith can’t win a runoff anyway, so now I want Brooks held under 50 to force him to spend time and money in a runoff.

    And for Griffith, a runoff would be only deeper humiliation, starting right away.  He’d be campaigning as a clearly rejected incumbent with no plausible path to victory.  Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised if he concedes and endorses Brooks for the runoff rather than go through such a pointless exercise.  But I hope he keeps fighting, and forces Brooks to throw that much more energy and money into a 2nd round before he gets to square off against Raby.

  9. Looks like party switchers are going to go 0-2 this cycle.  I also remain more doubtful than most of Charlie Crist’s ability to break that streak in November.

  10. He is up 2-to-1 in Mobile County, with only 15% in, and he’ll probably get a net plus of 10K voters out of there. Still, his one and only path to victory is somehow winning big in Montgomery. That’s it.

  11. I know not very much about him. He resign as state Democratic Party chair for run for Lieutenant Governor after years of success in New Mexico. Seems a serious candidate what can help to the democratic ticket.

  12. I think Roby barely avoids a run-off. Montgomery County is the only one that has yet to report anything, and it should be big for her. The only other counties that are not in are going for her: Houston, where she is winning with 50%, 33/38 precincts,Henry, where she is winning with 47% and 17/17 precincts,  Covington, where she has 41% and 29/30, and Autauga, where she has 43% and only 6/25 precincts have reported. I think she can pull it off if she maintains margins in these counties and wins big in Montgomery.  

  13. yikes, 84% in and Sewell has put some distance between her and Smoot. She won’t avoid a runoff but assuming Smoot stays in 2nd it’s extremely important that she consolidates the liberal vote.

  14. Montgomery County just crapped in all of its votes at once in the governor’s race (on the D side, still nothing on the R side) and Davis won by the skin of his teeth.

  15. will have a runoff.  Montgomery just came in big for her, but it put her at 49.1%.  There are still some precinct left, but it does not look like they will put her over.

  16. Apparently Alabama Republicans do not give a rip about Alabama.  I am said Peterson lost.  His campaign would have been entertaining in many ways.

  17. At a Stanford reunion a few years back.

    I read his nametag and couldn’t keep a straight face.  He was quite understanding and assured me that he’d heard them all before.

    Can’t remember anything else that he might’ve said.

  18. And what joy!!!!  Time for a ganj break and a beer!  Thank you Alabama, this may be the only time you will ever make my night

    Peace out Artur Davis and Parker Griffith!

  19. 1. NM and MS – not much to say about. Martinez won as i expected, though by bigger margin then i expected. Nunnelee performed about expected, though i hoped that there may be (just may be) a runoff. But still – he spent considerable part of his money, needs to unify party around himself (not so easy here – Childers is conservative enough and well-known enough to be at least considered by some Nunlenee detractors, and there are some 3rd-party candidates, mostly conservative, as well) and so on. Palazzo didn’t especially impressed me as well – 57% for officeholder and  hyped “establishment candidate” is not especially good.

    2. Alabama. A lot to talk about. I expected close race betveen Davis and Sparks, and surely not a Sparks landslide. BTW – a lot of people criticize Davis here, but, after reading one of the left-leaning blogs on Alabama politics:

    http://www.leftinalabama.com/

    i came to conclusions that they don’t like Sparks even more – a lot of presumably moderate (and even – some liberals) people there flatly refuse to vote for Sparks in November and are ready to vote for Republican candidate (especially if that will be “sane” Byrne). Can anyone explain to me that level of criticism?

    Republicans: Rather “sane” Byrne got into runoff from 1st place – relatively good. But a lot will depend on who will be his opponent – a “nice guy” (though rather “social conservative” against  mostly “business conservative” Byrne) Bentley or far fom being “nice guy” and very conservative Tim James. With 140 votes margin Cleburne county is big enough (about 6500 votes in 2008, and more then 5000 of them for McCain) to change everything, though obviously turnout yesterday was much lower then in November 2008

    5th district. Griffith lost – that’s good. Mo Brooks won without runoff – that’s not so good, i would prefer a runoff here with very narrow and bitter victory for …… (it doesn’t matter). Brooks is very conservative, but has good following in the area – he won the core of it during his 2006 Lt. Gov race. while losing to Strange and Wallace decisively statewide

    Raby won by far more then i expected – in fact i expected a runoff between him and Shepard. He is a sort of center-right candidate (if i understand correctly) who may have chance in this very difficult district in November. But still Brooks is a favorite so far…

    2nd district. Roby got into run-off – very good. The best possible development here.

    7th district. Democrats can’t lose this seat and runoff between Sewell (money, first of all) and Smoot (netroots support) will be really interesting.

    I leave analysis of legislative primaries to local “experts” because i am not especially familiar with candidates there. but i think Democrats will have difficulties holding state Senate (as a minimum)…

    P.S. Possibly we saw yesterday the end of George Wallace Jr. and Roy Moore as serious political candidates.

  20. apparently there were something like 100,000 fewer voters in the AL dem primary than in 06.  And that primary was less competitive.  Repubs had about 30k more voters than in 06.  Really shows why the polling might have been off.  

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