AR, CA, IA, ME, NJ, NV, SC & SD Results Thread

11:33pm: Party’s moved next door.

11:31pm: AR-02 has been called by AP for Elliott, now 54-46. She’ll face Tim Griffin… probably not as good a matchup for Dems as Wills.

11:29pm: Angle’s back in the lead in NV-Sen! 35, to Lowden’s 33, with 21 for Tarkanian. 14% in. I’m sure we’ll see lots of back and forth gyrations in this one as different counties report. Lowden has small lead in Clark, while Angle has a much bigger lead in Washoe.

11:27pm: AP has called GOP primary in NJ-12 for Scott Sipprelle, rich guy, over teabagger opposition, but only 54-46. Rush Holt probably not very scared. GOP primary in NJ-06 is still 50-50, with Diane Gooch trailing by 100.

11:25pm: Add a couple more New Jersey races to the list of races where no-name teabaggers held moderates down to so-so numbers. Leonard Lance only racked up 56% in NJ-07, and Chris Smith in NJ-04 held to 69%. Both were ‘yes’ votes on cap & trade.

11:21pm: All the Arkansas House races are super close. In AR-01, it’s Causey 51, Wooldridge 49, with 94% in. In AR-02, it’s Elliot 52, Wills 48, with 91% in. And in AR-03, it’s Womack 50, Bledsoe 50, with Womack up by about 200, although that’s only with 75% in.

11:15pm: ME-Gov (R) called for Paul LePage. Looking like he’ll take on Libby Mitchell in the fall.

11:12pm: Only 1% reporting, but the AP has already called NV-Gov (R) for ex-judge Brian Sandoval. Even the RGA supported him over Jim Gibbons.

11:10pm: Oh yeah, poll closed in California ten minutes ago.

11:01pm: In Iowa, the AP calls IA-03 (R) for Brad Zaun, who will take on Leonard Boswell. In IA-02, Mariannette Miller-Meeks of the dreaded ophthalmologists will rematch against Dave Loebsack.

11:00pm: The AP calls AR-Sen for Blanche Lincoln.

10:51pm: A smattering of precincts and early votes coming in from Nevada, including Clark County (Las Vegas). Gibbons is losing big time to Sandoval in NV-Gov, 57-23. Chicken Lady ahead of Angle 36-33 with Tarkanian at 20.

10:48pm: Ganja break OVER! Maine is now up to 38% in. Libby Mitchell has extended her lead to 34-26 over Rowe, and Paul LePage is cruising.

10:43pm: How baked must they be in Maine right about now? Been at 12% since… whoa… are those Cool Ranch Doritos?

10:40pm: Chad Causey looks like he might hold out over Tim “The Hangman” Wooldridge in AR-01. Meanwhile, Joyce Elliott now has a lead over Robbie Wills in AR-02. And in AR-03, teabagger fave Cecile Bledsoe is beating Steve Womack 54-46. Bledsoe is both a teabagger queen and sort of the establishment choice – I dunno, though, it was a weird race.

10:37pm: We’re pretty confident in calling ND-AL for state Rep. Kristi Noem, who beat the more-or-less establishment choice, SoS Chris Nelson. You only need 35% to avoid a runoff in SD, and Noem has a 41-36 lead with most of the votes in.

10:32pm: Halter took a brief lead for a moment there, but it’s back to where it was.

10:27pm: AR-Sen is 51-49 Blanche, but Halter is still behind where he needs to be, according to our model. If you want a fuller explanation of how our model works, click here.

10:23pm: With 12% reporting, Terry Branstad is up just 51-40 over Bob Vander Plaats in IA-Gov (R).

10:13pm: Can’t wait to see those NV-Sen results start to roll in (soon, I hope). Meanwhile, our friends up in Maine seem to be on the first ganja break of the evening.

RESULTS:

209 thoughts on “AR, CA, IA, ME, NJ, NV, SC & SD Results Thread”

  3. I think I’m one of three who guessed that Lincoln would win…. If I happen to win the babka, that would leave a bitter aftertaste. Perhaps I’d have to donate the equivalent in cash to some worthy cause.

  6. Halter probably needs around 47% in the county. I guess Lincoln did a good job of combining Obama and Clinton support. If she wins, it will be mostly due to Obama’s endorsement, not that we will see Lincoln support any of Obama’s legislative goals any time soon.

  14. Politico just flipped Pulaski from Lincoln to Halter. If that’s true, Halter wins.

  18. Things are tightening quickly in NJ 6 between Gooch and Little, with 77% of precincts reporting and much of the vote remaining in Gooch leaning Middlesex county (currently up 56-44 there) teabagger Anna Little’s lead is down to 51.9-48.1 or around 450 votes.  

    Meanwhile in NJ 12 Scott Spirrelle appears to be OK up 52-48 and widening, but still a pretty weal performance from him.

  30. Unless there are a disproportionate number of votes left, Diane Gooch has lost in NJ-06, and John Aslanian lost in a landslide in NJ-09.

  31. Causey is ahead in AR-01 by a decent 6% margin, which is good. For AR-02, Elliott has now pulled into the lead and will likely keep it with much of Pulaski still out. Both candidates have tough races ahead of them. If this were 2008, Causey would probably win the general election easily, but 2010 is questionable.

  33. Anyone noticing similarities between Noem in SD and Gooch in NJ? Both moderatish, female candidates, both versing teabaggers, both narrowly leading  

  36. 10:37pm: We’re pretty confident in calling ND-AL for state Rep. Kristi Noem, who beat the more-or-less establishment choice, SoS Chris Nelson. You only need 35% to avoid a runoff in SD, and Noem has a 41-36 lead with most of the votes in.

    You mean South Dakota

  40. I don’t see any  loss of seats their based on tonight.  It’d be nice if all the Dems run good, non-corrupt campaigns.  Then the national parties could spend less on these very expensive markets for races (NY and Philly).

  41. 1. Alvin Greene.  Is his win likely do to a large AA turnout?  

    2. Causey winning would be a huge plus, but if Elliot wins I don’t think we hold that seat sadly.

    3. Not surprised Halter isn’t winning.  There was a real slip up post Primary day in intensity from Halter supporters.

  43. Little-6,671 (50.35%)

    Gooch-6,577 (49.65%)

    The problem for Gooch is that is there are only 4 precints left to report in Monmouth County and 3 left in Middlesex, looks like Little has it in the bag but this certainly is one of the closest races.

  48. I hope she will show some gratitude in her final months in office. I’m doubtful.

  51.  They were the last people to poll Alabama and found Davis by 7, and were the only ones to poll Arkansas and found Halter by 4. I’ll wonder what Kos says  

  53. we can call Blanche Lincoln the “Comeback Kid” eh?

    Also she said on election night a few weeks ago: “They thought they could write us off! Well guess what! They got another thing coming! Another thing coming!”

    At first I thought she was delusional, but I guess she was right.

  60. NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!  

    Ugh, not a fun thing to come to from getting my gank break materials.  Now I need this shit more than ever.  Ugh, boooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!

  63. Since Lincoln has won, I hope all of the outside interests will either find something else to focus on, or support Lincoln.

    Halter ran a good race, but I still think the outside groups did more harm than good. Basically, Halter wasn’t the issue, the massive support from those outside the state was.

    Just my view though.

    Maddow, Schultz, and others are now bringing up Garland County. Halter only won by 4k there, and with the numbers still coming in, that county would not have done anything to change the end result.

  64.  Which are not early votes actually. San Benito County where Obama won by 18 points is half in. Fiorina leads by 6. The Democratic primary gets more votes than the Republican primary fortunately with Democrats getting about 1,800 votes and the Republicans getting 1,500.

  65. I’d say this easily qualifies as the biggest primary upset of the election cycle thus far. I don’t hold out enough hope that she’ll manage to beat John Boozman in the general election.

    Along with the Sparks victory that no poll (public or internal) predicted, does this suggest that Southern primaries are harder to poll for some reason?

  70. BUT…Lowden’s narrowly leading in Clark County, which only has a trickle out so far. If she can hold there, I suspect she’ll eek it out.

  74. The absentee’s from Orange County, Hahn leads Newsom 44-41, and Aanestad (!!) leads Lt. Gov Maldo 39-33. Kelly squeaks Harris 23-22. iCarly CRUSHES DeVore and Campbell with 52-25-21.

    Larry Aceves (?!, Superintendent Race) leads with 25%, while frontrunners Torlakson and Romero are 2nd and 3rd, respecively. Props 14 (top-two) has 54-46% supporting and 15 (fair clean elections ) is LOSING big 37-63, oh come on OC. Evil Prop 16 and 17 are winning with huge margins too.

  80. Ugh, all the props are going the wrong way, though the absentee vote probably skews conservative.  In CA-36, Harman leads 65-35.

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