Super Speculative House Predictions!

So this is my most ambitious and most speculative exercise to date.  Below are my predictions for the TWO WAY vote in every House race that I expect to be within 20% (plus three pickups in AR-02, LA-03, and TN-06 that I expect to be greater than 20%).  Unlike my previous efforts, this is almost entirely unscientific and subjective, except that I have tried to make a reasonable distribution of margins of victories (not too many close ones, not too many blowouts).  

Overall, I have a net of 25 seats to the Republicans, with 29 Republican pickups and 4 Democratic ones.  Pickups are in bold.  

AK-AL – Young (R) 59, Crawford (D) 40 – Crawford underfunded and AK too red.

AL-02 – Bright (D) 50.3, Roby (R) 49.7 – Bright scrapes by with conservative record.

AL-05 – Brooks (R) 59, Raby (D) 41 – Northern Alabama going red fast.

AR-01 – Causey 50 (D), Crawford (R) 49 – AR Dems able to focus here for lack of other competitive races.

AR-02 – Griffin (R) 60, Elliott (D) 40 – This one was decided by the Dem primary.

AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick (D) 53, Gosar (R) 46 – Republican field somewhat unimpressive.

AZ-03 – Quayle (R) 59, Hulburd (D) 41 – R+9 open seat too much to ask this cycle.

AZ-05 – Mitchell (D) 51, Schweikert (R) 48 – Rematch of 2008, where Mitchell won by 9.

AZ-08 – Giffords (D) 52, Paton (R) 47 – Paton a strong candidate, but Giffords has lots of $$$.

CA-03 – Lungren (R) 55, Bera (D) 44 – R+6 seat too tough in this environment.

CA-11 – McNerney (D) 52, Harmer (R) 48 – McNerney wins a squeaker.  Bluing part of Cali.

CA-18 – Cardoza (D) 56, Berryhill (R) 43 – Cardoza needs to raise more $$$.

CA-20 – Costa (D) 59, Vidak (R) 41 – No problem for Costa.

CA-44 – Calvert (R) 59, Hedrick (D) 41 – Calvert not taken by surprise this time.

CA-45 – Bono-Mack (R) 58, Pougnet (D) 41 – Bono-Mack prevails in favorable environment.

CA-47 – Sanchez (D) 58, Tran (R) 41 – Have never taken this one too seriously.

CO-03 – Salazar (D) 54, Tipton (R) 46 – Substantial $$$ advantage for Salazar.

CO-04 – Gardner (R) 53, Markey (D) 47 – Tough HCR vote in this district.

CO-07 – Perlmutter (D) 56, Frazier (R) 43 – D+4 district.  Perlmutter has fundraised well.

CT-04 – Himes (D) 56, Debicella (R) 44 – Himes a super fundraiser.

CT-05 – Murphy (D) 56, Caliguiri (R) 43 – Murphy notches relatively comfortable win.

DE-AL – Carney (D) 55, Urquhart (R) 45 – Glad Carney got in the race early.

FL-02 – Southerland (R) 51, Boyd (D) 48 – HCR vote seals Boyd’s fate.

FL-08 – Grayson 50 (D), Webster (R) 49 – Grayson spends huge to win.

FL-10 – Young (R) 59, Justice (D) 40 – Poor Charlie Justice.  Fundraising embarrassing.

FL-12 – Ross (R) 57, Edwards (D) 43 – Once-promising race goes by the wayside due to environment.

FL-22 – Klein (D) 53, West (R) 47 – West has raised tons of $$$, but thankfully Klein has too.

FL-24 – Miller 50 (R), Kosmas (D) 49 – Another tough HCR vote for the district.

FL-25 – Rivera (R) 55, Garcia (D) 44 – Rivera had monster first fundraising quarter.

GA-02 – Bishop (D) 56, Keown (R) 43 – Bishop is pretty entrenched in this heavily AA district.

GA-08 – Marshall (D) 54, Scott (R) 45 – Scott starting from scratch in fundraising.

HI-01 – Hanabusa (D) 54, Djou (R) 46 – Djou can beat two Democrats but not one.

IA-03 – Boswell (D) 54, Zaun (R) 45 – Zaun has a lot of catching up to do in fundraising.

ID-01 – Minnick 50.4 (D), Labrador (R) 49.6 – Tough year to rely on crossover votes.

IL-08 – Bean (D) 58, Walsh (R) 41 – This one could be worse.  Walsh is a joke.

IL-10 – Seals (D) 50.1, Dold (R) 49.9 – Seals squeaks by in 20%+ Obama district.

IL-11 – Kinzinger (R) 53, Halvorson (D) 47 – Kinzinger an outstanding candidate.

IL-14 – Hultgren 50 (R), Foster (D) 49 – Top of the ticket hurts Foster.

IL-17 – Hare (D) 58, Schilling (R) 42 – Schilling raising decent money in D+3 seat.

IN-02 – Donnelly (D) 55, Walorski (R) 45 – Jacky too wacky to win.

IN-08 – Bucshon (R) 52, Van Haaften (D) 47 – Van Haaften a good candidate, but tough district.

IN-09 – Young 50 (R), Hill (D) 49 – Another tough HCR vote.

KS-03 – Yoder (R) 55, Moore (D) 45 – Big fundraising head start for Republicans.

KS-04 – Pompeo (R) 59, Goyle (D) 40 – Way too red for this cycle.

KY-03 – Yarmuth (D) 59, Lally (R) 40 – Lally only semi-serious competition.

KY-06 – Chandler (D) 54, Barr (R) 45 – Barr is a decent candidate, but Chandler should win comfortably.

LA-02 – Richmond (D) 58, Cao (R) 41 – Huge Dem lean too much for Cao.

LA-03 – Downer (R) 61, Sangisetty (D) 38 – Easy pickup in Cajun country.

MA-05 – Tsongas (D) 59, Golnik (R) 40 – Golnik has raised some decent $$$.

MA-10 – Keating (D) 55, Perry (R) 45 – Don’t think this hyped race will be all that close.

MD-01 – Harris (R) 53, Kratovil (D) 46 – Really tough district for Kratovil to defend.

MI-01 – Allen (R) 52, McDowell (D) 47 – Tough district for Dems to hold.

MI-07 – Walberg (R) 52, Schauer (D) 48 – Schauer barely got by Walberg in 2008.

MI-09 – Peters (D) 55, Welday (R) 44 – Peters has huge financial edge.

MN-01 – Walz (D) 57, Demmer (R) 42 – Big financial edge for Walz.

MN-06 – Bachmann (R) 57, Clark (D) 43 – PPP poll did not bode well for Clark.

MO-03 – Carnahan (D) 56, Martin (R) 43 – Martin has raised some serious $$$.

MO-04 – Skelton (D) 54, Stouffer (R) 45 – Tough race but Skelton pulls through comfortably.

MS-01 – Nunnellee (R) 53, Childers (D) 46 – Wish Nunnellee had to deal with a runoff on Tuesday.

MS-04 – Taylor (D) 57, Palazzo (R) 43 – Taylor very well entrenched in incredibly red district.

NC-02 – Etheridge (D) 58, Ellmers (R) 42 – Don’t think the fisticuffs will have a tremendous impact here.

NC-07 – McIntyre (D) 58, Pantano (R) 41 – McIntyre has gone as far as any Dem to act Republican.

NC-08 – Kissell (D) 54, Johnson (R) 46 – PPP polling suggests Kissell will be OK here.

NC-11 – Shuler (D) 55, Miller (R) 44 – Shuler a very good fit for the district.

ND-AL – Berg 51 (R), Pomeroy (D) 49 – Hoeven coattails carry Berg.

NE-02 – Terry (R) 57, White (D) 43 – Too much to ask for in this cycle.

NH-01 – Guinta (R) 50.2, Shea-Porter (D) 49.8 – Tough year for Dems in NH.

NH-02 – Bass (R) 52, Kuster (D) 48 – Bass has strong polling leads.

NJ-03 – Adler (D) 54, Runyan (R) 45 – Runyan better at pass blocking than politics.

NJ-12 – Holt (D) 56, Sipprelle (R) 43 – Sipprelle has just about matched Holt fundraising.

NM-01 – Heinrich (D) 56, Barela (R) 44 – Heinrich should hold on in Dem district.

NM-02 – Pearce (R) 51, Teague (D) 48 – Tough district, tough opponent.

NV-03 – Heck (R) 52, Titus (D) 48 – Polls show Titus down.

NY-01 – Bishop (D) 54, Altschuler (R) 46 – Altschuler spending scary money.

NY-13 – McMahon (D) 55, Allegretti (R) 44 – Republicans in this district are a mess.

NY-19 – Hall (D) 53, Hayworth (R) 46 – Hall needs to get on the fundraising.

NY-20 – Murphy (D) 57, Gibson (R) 42 – Murphy lucky to have lackluster opponent.

NY-23 – Owens (D) 53, Hoffman (R) 46 – Owens widens lead in re-match.

NY-24 – Hanna (R) 52, Arcuri (D) 47 – Arcuri a poor candidate and Hanna a good one.

NY-25 – Maffei (D) 58, Buerkle (R) 42 – Maffei should be OK against subpar opposition.

NY-29 – Reed (R) 58, Zeller (D) 42 – Easy pickup for the GOP.

OH-01 – Chabot (R) 56, Driehaus (D) 44 – Afraid the awful polls are right on this one.

OH-06 – Wilson (D) 58, Johnson (R) 42 – Wilson has not had any problem in this Appalachia district.

OH-12 – Tiberi (R) 59, Brooks (D) 41 – Big financial edge for Tiberi.

OH-13 – Sutton (D) 55, Ganley (R) 45 – $$$ isn’t everything.  Sutton wins Dem district.

OH-15 – Stivers (R) 56, Kilroy (D) 44 – Kilroy only swept in because of strong 2008 environment.

OH-16 – Renacci (R) 53, Boccieri (D) 46 – Tough HCR vote for Boccieri in this district.

OH-18 – Space 51 (D), Gibbs (R) 49 – Huge Space fundraising edge.

OR-01 – Wu (D) 57, Cornilles (R) 43 – Should be enough Dem votes here for Wu to get by pretty easily.

OR-04 – DeFazio (D) 58, Robinson (R) 42 – Only a D+1 district, but no problem for DeFazio.

OR-05 – Schrader (D)  56, Bruun (R) 44 – Swing district, but Schrader should win.

PA-03 – Dahlkemper (D) 54, Kelly (R) 46 – Republicans failed to land big-time opponent here.

PA-04 – Altmire (D) 55, Rothfus (R) 45 – Altmire in a decent position for re-election.

PA-06 – Gerlach (R) 57, Trivedi (D) 43 – This isn’t the year to finally take out Gerlach.

PA-07 – Meehan 51 (R), Lentz (D) 49 – Meehan financial advantage gets him through.

PA-08 – Murphy (D) 52, Fitzpatrick (R) 48 – Worried about this one.  Fitzpatrick raising $$$ fast.

PA-10 – Carney 51 (D), Marino (R) 49 – Carney a good politician with a strong financial edge.

PA-11 – Barletta (R) 50.4, Kanjorski (D) 49.6 – Kanjorski barely got by in 2008.

PA-12 – Critz (D) 53, Burns (R) 47 – Critz takes the re-match.

PA-15 – Dent (R) 55, Callahan (D) 44 – Tough to take out Republican incumbents this cycle.

PA-16 – Pitts (R) 59, Herr (D) 41 – PPP showed a 9-point race here.

PA-17 – Holden (D) 57, Argall (R) 42 – Holden survived 1994.  He’ll survive this.

SC-02 – Wilson (R) 59, Miller (D) 40 – “You lie!” outburst goes unpunished.

SC-05 – Spratt (D) 51, Mulvaney (R) 48 – Spratt barely holds on.

SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin (D) 52, Noem (R) 48 – Don’t see the fireable offense for Herseth-Sandlin.

TN-04 – Davis (D) 53, Bailey (R) 47 – Republican internal had Davis up 11 in March.

TN-06 – Tracy (R) 63, Leming (D) 36 – Dems giving this one away.

TN-08 – Herron (D) 50.1, Fincher (R) 49.9 – Strong candidate squeaks by in tough district.

TX-17 – Flores (R) 53, Edwards (D) 47 – R lean of the district finally catches up to Edwards.

TX-23 – Rodriguez (D) 54, Canseco (R) 46 – Moderately competitive race for Ciro.

TX-27 – Ortiz (D) 58, Farenthold (R) 41 – Not much trouble for Ortiz.

UT-02 – Matheson (D) 57, Philpot (R) 42 – Matheson has enormous financial advantage.

VA-02 – Rigell (R) 51, Nye (D) 48 – One of those districts that sweeps in and out with environment.

VA-05 – Hurt 51 (R), Periello (D) 49 – Periello needs Teabagger to draw from Hurt.

VA-09 – Boucher (D) 54, Griffith (R) 45 – Big financial advantage for Boucher.

VA-11 – Connolly (D) 52, Fimian (R) 47 – Fimian ran reasonably strong in 2008, losing by 11.

WA-02 – Larsen (D) 57, Koster (R) 42 – Koster reasonably well-funded.

WA-03 – Heck 51 (D), Herrera (R) 49 – Heck has early financial edge.

WA-08 – Reichert (R) 56, DelBene (D) 44 – Too tough a year to beat Reichert.

WI-03 – Kind (D) 57, Kanapke (R) 42 – Big financial edge for Kind.

WI-07 – Lassa (D) 51, Duffy (R) 48 – Maybe it’s just hard for me to take reality TV stars seriously.

WI-08 – Kagen (D) 52, Ribble (R) 47 – Kagen goes into his pockets to win another tough race.

WV-01 – Oliviero (D) 50, McKinley (R) 49 – Incredibly conservative Oliviero squeaks by.

58 thoughts on “Super Speculative House Predictions!”

  1. I think we’ll hold these seats: FL-2, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, MI-1 (teabagger beats Allen in primary), NV-3, OH-16, PA-7,

    and we’ll lose these: FL-8, IA-3, ID-1, SC-5, TN-7, TN-8, WV-1.

    so that’s a net -24.

  2. ND-AL will be close, but not that close. ND voters haven’t got a good reason to dump Pomeroy when they’re already losing Dorgan. Small states like ND (also AK and DE spring to mind) usually vote strategically based on clout, and while Hoeven is certainly popular, he doesn’t have the coattails that a popular Republican in an urban state would.

    In IN-09, Young is a terrible candidate with anemic fundraising from the wrong part of the state who doesn’t fit the district at all, and I don’t think he’ll play well compared to Hill, HCR vote or no HCR vote. Hill may be the incumbent, but you underestimate his campaigning skills in this district. And I think we’ll hold IN-08 and NH-01 based on the quality of our candidates vs. theirs. All three of these races will be close, but I think the odds are ever so slightly in our favor despite the negative environment.

    Finally, I’d be more pessimistic about TN-08 and WV-01, simply because Appalachia is the one place where the Democratic brand has collapsed overnight. Olivero being batshit crazy might hold WV-01, but he’ll pull a Griffith within a year anyway, so it doesn’t really count even if he wins.

    I agree with you about everything else – even Boyd and Edwards losing while Bright, Minnick, and Causey all win.

    Net D -23 sounds about right.  

  3. and sound commentary.

    I also think all the rest of the comments in this thread are of very high-quality. Sorry I couldn’t add anything substantive to them. 🙂

  4. I haven’t done a full prediction like this, but I’m guessing Grayson is one of the 10 most likely Democratic incumbents to lose this cycle. He can spend with the best of them, but if that money goes into polarizing ads like the one he debuted this week, I can’t see him holding on in an R-leaning district with a lot of moderate swing voters. His saving grace may be a divisive and fairly late GOP primary, however.

  5. I disagree with a few projections though.

    FL-08- I like Grayson well enough but just because we like him does not mean his constituents do. He is doing good financially but that does not always make the difference. The Republicans have fielded strong candidates and with the environment and his decisiveness (I agree with him but still) I think he loses.

    FL-24- Perhaps I am just being optimistic but I do not think Miller is all that strong. I think Kosmas is popular enough to slip through but it will undoubtedly be close.

    ID-01- Sorry I wish I felt different but I do not think Minnick makes it. I wish he would but I just do not see it happening. Perhaps he can make a good gubernatorial candidate some day.

    NC-08- I will be in the strong minority but I think Kissel will lose assuming Johnson is the nominee. I think his former staffer snags enough votes away and he nearly loses.

    ND-AL- I do not care what Scotty says Pomeroy will survive. When Hoeven announced he would run I had no doubt it would be competitive but no I don’t see it happening.

    NM-02- Close but Teague survives.

    NY-24- Polling has him doing well and I don’t like him much but I think he survives.

    OH-16- My gut thinks he makes it. You could be right though.

  6. We’ve got things called almost exactly alike right now, in fact our number of Rep and Dem pickups is exactly the same, 29/4 for a +25 Rep score.  The only difference is on the seats that will flip.  By my count we have the same 4 democratic seats flipping, on the republican side here’s where we differ and agree:

    Spiderdem has going red/Stephencle has staying blue – FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-9, OH-15, PA-7

    Spiderdem has staying blue/Stephencle has going red – AL-2, AR-1, TN-4, TN-8, WV-1, WA-3

    Agreement – AR-2, CO-4, FL-2, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, ND-1, NH-1, NH-2, NM-2, NV-3, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, PA-11, TN-6, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5

    The cool part about this is, even if the 23 seats on which we agree flip, along with the 12 in which we currently don’t, that’s only 35 seats in total and the republicans will still be shy of taking control by 4 seats.  Awesome.

    I do notice a geographical divide in our calls, notably in that you appear to have us losing virtually across the board in most of the midwest, while I have a lot more seats in the southeast going under.  I can see the arguments for both sides of that continuum.

  7. that’s long enough for people to get used to it. You attributed a lot of future Dem losses to HCR, but I really think most people won’t care about HCR in November. Even today the biggest issue isn’t HCR, it’s the oil spill.

  8. In MO-08, I think Sowers will get within 60%. I doubt he’ll win or even get in single digits, but though the district is very red and it’s a Republican year, he is a very strong candidate.

  9. Only a couple of observations.  I don’t think you are necessarily wrong on the races I’ve listed below, but I’ve got a few differing opinions.

    FL-02:  I believe this race will be tight, but my gut feeling is that Boyd will prevail.

    NH-01:  I like Shea-Porter, and I think she has what it takes to win this race, albeit narrowly.  Could go either way, but I’ll give her the slightest of an advantage.

    WV-01:  Olviero could pull this race off, but I’m not sold on it at this point.

    Overall, this diary is one of the best I have seen.  Great job!

  10. …outcomes in your list are, favorite, Alan Grayson winning, and most disappointing, Tom Perriello losing.

    I gave Perriello $500, he’s just been THE MOST courageous House members in the freshman class.  And I’m rooting for him to find some way to pull out a victory against the odds.

    Grayson is a guy whose bombastic personality makes me of two minds, where on one hand I cringe or just disagree with some of what he says, but on the other hand I like seeing someone bombastic on the left because we do need that.  And if he survives such a tough cycle in such a tough district, that’s going to frustrate conservatives in a big way.

    Ultimately I think a net loss of 25 might be a bit optimistic, but if that’s how it ends up, I’ll be ecstatic.  I think there’s no way it can be spun as anything but a disappiontment for Republicans.  That they got out ahead of themselves so early in insisting they’d take over the House really cost them the expectations game already.  They might be able to still plausibly claim a moral victory if they get real close with 35 net pickups and leave Dems with a bare majority that can’t really do much going forward, but if we’re still holding 230 seats in the 112th Congress that’s going to be a clear Democratic victory.

  11. But I have to disagree with you about Betsy in CO-4, she’s tough as nails and raises money like crazy!  It’ll be a tough hold for sure, but she’s more than prepared in my opinion and her votes have been very strategic.  Even in her healthcare vote I don’t see it being a huge issue.  Weld county, the swing area of the district was hit really hard by the recession so I can’t see her opponent being able to make a big issue out of healthcare.

    As for her opponent, Cory Gardner is not very intelligent or even charismatic person, he is fundraising reasonably well though.  His biggest downfall in my opinion is that his base is in the eastern plains, being from Yuma county, and NO ONE lives there.  The margin really won’t change there in a big way for him and the plains are never the deciding factor in the district.  He’s no Musgrave, but he doesn’t have any geographical advantage or personal appeal to make him any better than generic R.  And don’t forget Betsy won in 08 by a 56-44 margin, that’s incredible for this district even if you’re running against someone like Musgrave!  

    I say Betsy pulls through narrowly with everything working in her favor that she needs to (money, outreach, voting).

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