SSP Daily Digest: 7/15 (Afternoon Edition)

CT-Sen: Rob Simmons may not be as revved up about jumping back into the GOP Senate primary as was reported last night (i.e. “I’m thinking about it.”). His former campaign manager told The Fix today that there’s no secret comeback bid and that “he has no plans to re-engage.” It’s probably wiser for Simmons to take that approach, to lay low and wait for the off chance that Linda McMahon implodes pre-primary, rather than drain himself in an uphill fight against her.

KS-Sen: I don’t know what spooked Jerry Moran into coughing up another internal poll (I can’t imagine it was the backstabbing by Tom Tancredo, but who knows?), but at any rate, he released a new internal from POS giving him a 56-24 lead over Todd Tiahrt in the GOP Senate primary. Moran also continues to win the fundraising race, raising $538K last quarter with $2.3 million CoH. Tiahrt raised $451K last quarter and has $1.3 million CoH, although he has a big fundraising dinner scheduled soon hosted by former Notre Dame football coach Charlie Weis.

NV-Sen: This news has to be, on the balance, good news for Harry Reid. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, while certainly not considering endorsing Reid, is moving toward sitting out the Nevada Senate race. It may be tempting to pin this down with increasing Chamber discontent with the teabagger wing of the party (as seen with their moves in SC-Gov and ID-01), but a lot of it may be that they’re less unhappy with Reid as Majority Leader than the alternatives (Chuck Schumer or Dick Durbin). Reid‘s also reporting, unsurprisingly, tons of money: he raised $2.4 million, although, after spending a lot on ads, he’s at $9 million CoH.

NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov (pdf): Siena released polls everyone and everything in the Empire State today, although there’s little suspense in any of these races anymore. In the gubernatorial race, Andrew Cuomo beats Rick Lazio 60-28, beats Carl Paladino 64-23, and beats Lazio and Paladino (with Paladino on a 3rd party line) 54-23-10. Lazio beats Paladino in the GOP primary 40-20. In the Senate special election, Kirsten Gillibrand leads Bruce Blakeman 51-28, beats Joe DioGuardi 51-29, and beats David Malpass 50-27. DioGuardi leads the GOP primary at 24, with 7 for Blakeman and 5 for Malpass. And in the other Senate race, Chuck Schumer beats both Gary Berntsen and Jay Townsend by an identical 63-26. Townsend tops Berntsen in the GOP primary 24-13. They even throw in the Comptroller’s race, where Dem incumbent Tom DiNapoli beats self-funded GOPer Harry Wilson 48-24.

SC-Sen: The Charleston minor league baseball team has answered Alvin Greene’s call for economic stimulus in the form of Alvin Greene action figures: they’ll be giving out Greene figurines as a promotion at their Saturday game. (Although it sounds a little half-assed, as they’re just sticking Alvin Greene heads on unused Statues of Liberty.) Also, with the primary out of the way, local and Beltway Democrats alike are uniting behind Greene, filling his coffers with… um… $1,000? (At least that puts him ahead of Roland Burris.) That number was apparently volunteered by Greene; he won’t have to file with the FEC until he hits the $5,000 mark.

WV-Sen: Plans are already afoot in Washington to swear in West Virginia’s new Senator by Tuesday so that the unemployment benefits extension can be voted on that same day. Who, though, is still an open question. Other Senator Jay Rockefeller says there’s some White House pressure and he thinks he knows who it’ll be, but he isn’t saying who. Ex-Gov. and current College Board President Gaston Caperton has suddenly reversed course and is now saying that he is interested, which certainly seems like a tea leaf to me. There are also reports that Bob Wise and Larry Puccio have removed themselves from consideration, and Nick Casey (awaiting a federal judgeship) is very unlikely.

The NRSC is already running anti-Joe Manchin ads (in print media only), but that may not provide that much encouragement to Shelly Moore Capito (the only Republican who can make this competitive) to get in: one little-noted fact is that one item that rather pointedly got left off the agenda for today’s legislative special session is whether or not an officeholder could run for two seats at the same time in the special election and the regularly-scheduled election (like in, oh let’s just say, WV-Sen and WV-02).  

CO-Gov: Scott McInnis may be the last to know to know that he’s dropping out of the gubernatorial race. Tom Tancredo has been telling people that McInnis is going to drop out, although the McInnis camp is denying that, saying “we’re moving forward.” Tancredo is also the first state GOPer to publicly call for McInnis to get out, although I wonder if Tancredo is hoping he may get the chance to take his place (remember Tancredo had flirted with the race early last year). Tancredo doesn’t seem to be on the list of replacements that’s being bandied about by the local press, though: they include Josh Penry (whom Tancredo had backed, and who ran for a while before dropping out), former state Sen. Mark Hillman, and… get this… ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer, who badly lost the 2008 Senate race.

There’s also some speculation about the legalities of replacing McInnis: it doesn’t seem like the GOP could insert a hand-picked filler before the primary, unless both McInnis and Dan Maes dropped out (not out of the question, I suppose, considering that Maes’ campaign is currently belly-up). This may help McInnis’s decision along: the RGA is now saying that they’re abandoning him, pulling out of fundraisers they’d previously scheduled.

GA-Gov: Mason-Dixon takes a look at the Georgia gubernatorial primaries. On the Republican side, they find John Oxendine at 31, Karen Handel at 23, Nathan Deal at 18, and Eric Johnson at 6. Compare that with Rasmussen (see below) and Magellan’s recent polls, which see possible Handel/Deal runoffs. Ed Kilgore also takes a look at the proxy war being fought in Georgia by Sarah Palin (backing Handel) and Newt Gingrich (backing Deal), which may be boosting those two’s fortunes at Oxendine’s expense. Mason-Dixon’s look at the Dem primary has comparatively less drama: Roy Barnes is out of runoff territory at 54, with Thurbert Baker at 20, David Poythress at 7, and Dubose Porter at 3.

AZ-08: The Fix seems to be the leaking place of choice for the GOP for its internal polls, and they have word of another one with a GOPer with a (slight) lead. It’s in the 8th, where a Tarrance Group poll gives Jonathan Paton a 45-44 lead over Gabrielle Giffords. Paton, of course, still has to survive a primary against the more tea-flavored Jesse Kelly.

KS-04: SurveyUSA’s new poll of the KS-04 primaries shows some interesting movement on the GOP side: both Mike Pompeo and Wink Hartman have declined by similar amounts (they’re currently at 32 and 31, respectively), with state Sen. Jean Schodorf making a late move up to 16, based on strength among women and moderates. Jim Anderson’s also at 9. There’s also a surprise on the Dem side: the DCCC-touted Raj Goyle is actually in danger of losing his primary to Some Dude, Robert Tillman. Tillman now leads, 40-36. Looks like we may have been right about Goyle’s reasons behind launching a TV buy now.

House: We don’t usually like to link to this sort of meta about the state of the House, but it’s interesting to see the various blind men who are veterans of the DCCC and the NRCC in relatively close agreement about the size and shape of the elephant this year.

Fundraising: AR-Sen | CA-Sen| CA-Sen | CT-Sen | DE-Sen | FL-Sen | IL-Sen | IN-Sen | MO-Sen | NH-Sen | OR-Sen | WI-Sen | IL-Gov | TX-Gov | CT-04 | DE-AL | FL-08 | GA-02 | NH-01 | OH-13 | PA-03 | PA-10 | RI-01 | WA-03

Rasmussen:

CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 46%, Meg Whitman (R) 47%

GA-Gov (R): Nathan Deal (R) 25%, Karen Handel (R) 25%, John Oxendine (R) 20%, Eric Johnson (R) 13%

TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 41%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 50%

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 51%, Dave Westlake (R) 37%

128 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 7/15 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. I’m intrigued to see if Gail Goode can get any traction in the Dem primary vs. Gillibrand. I’m surprised by how much press she’s received upstate…the Goode candidacy was the opening story of the 6PM local news.

  2. There’s a report in the Charleston Gazette that Carte Goodwin (the governor’s former counsel) has emerged at the top of the list of possible short-term replacements. And while Manchin will be a heavy favorite in the fall against anyone, Capito included, there is another Republican who might have a shot – Betty Ireland.

  3. with CO-Gov.  I don’t buy that this is enough to make him drop out.  Yeah, it was a stupid, wrong (morally/ethically) thing to do, but still.  Is there something else, some behind the secenes thing going on?

  4. that a lot of organization–like the NRA and the Chamber–are staying away from the Nevada race because they feel that Reid won’t do as much harm to their interests as would either Durbin or Schumer.

    It’s funny because a lot of people accuse Reid of being a poor leader.

  5. CO-Gov: I don’t think McInnis is going drop out, I think they’ll end up having to nominate Maes in the primary.

    NY-Gov, NY-Sen: I’m glad to see Democrats running so well here at the top of the ticket, that sort of momentum could help down ticket.

  6. like writing another digest of my California race ratings. But it might be premature, especially since I would have to move almost all the competitive race’s rankings towards the Republicans. Though I’m not surprised that Whitman has the momentum now….

  7. AL-02: Bobby Bright (D) – $174k raised, $734k on hand

    CO-07: Ed Perlmutter (D) – $294k raised, $1.39m on hand

    HI-01: Charles Djou (R) – $932k raised (mostly before the special election), $379k on hand

    KY-06: Ben Chandler (D) – $176k raised, $1.75m on hand

    MA-10: Robert O’Leary (D) – $195k raised, $164k on hand

    NE-02: Lee Terry (R) – $305k raised, $787k on hand

    TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez (D) – $167k raised, $702k on hand

  8. Good news for Democrats: Castle is under 50% and only up 11 on Coons

    Bad news for Democrats: O’donnell, in the event she defeated Castle in the primary, is a slight favorite against Coons.

  9. Chet Edwards: $610,000 raised, +$2 million COH

    Bill Flores $613,000 raised, $415,000 COH

    Sure, Flores outraised Edwards (barely), but he’s got spit in the bank compared to Chet. Fantastic, awesome numbers.

  10. disclaimer, i intern for dubie.

    These are all since entering the race, not quarterly.  in order of amount.  this link is best, found it as i was finishing the post.  may do analysis later.  

    http://www.wcax.com/Global/sto

    LT governor Brian Dubie $943,000

    http://www.benningtonbanner.co

    sec state deb markowitz (D) $524,000 http://www.debforvermont.com/n

    state senate pro temp peter shumlin.  $268,000 in donations, $150,000 loan, $418,000 total

    http://vtdigger.org/2010/07/15

    former state senator matt dunne $267,860

    http://vtdigger.org/2010/07/15

    former lt governor, current state senator doug racine $221,000

    http://vtdigger.org/2010/07/15

    Susan bartlett $70,000

    http://www.wcax.com/Global/sto

  11. in fundraising

    The largest haul of any candidate so far 4.6 million dollars. Boxer has 11.3 million in the bank. Fiorina has 620,000 dollars.  

  12. Ralston posts on his Twitter feed that he’s hearing the LV Review-Journal will publish tomorrow, that the new M-D poll will show Reid up low single-digits, same as a couple other polls Ralston saw this week.

    This race is fast reaching the point where Angle can no longer rehabilitate her public image, if it’s not past that point of no return already.  I don’t think she can win by just attacking Reid.

  13. sadly, this prob won’t be effective to use as an ad or anything.  http://politicalticker.blogs.c

    on another note, he’s also calling for people to stop pronouncing his name “boner.” his proposal failed in the senate 60-39 on partisan lines.

  14. I forgot to mention before that former Indiana SoS, Senate nominee and all around good guy Joe Hogsett has been nominated to be US Attorney. Hogsett has gotten huge bi partisan support in his appointment. He is younger than I thought as well (53) and he could make a comeback in the future.  

    http://www.courier-journal.com

  15. Anyone know where he’s living these days? I’m thinking California b/c he’s been pretty active in Fiorina’s campaign. If so, anyone think he’s a strong candidate if DiFi retires?  

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