NV-Gov/NV-03: Republicans’ Support Falls, but Dems Still Face Tough Races

Mason-Dixon (7/12-14, likely voters, 6/1-3 in parens)

Rory Reid (D): 36 (37)

Brian Sandoval (R): 47 (51)

Other: 3 (1)

None of these: 7 (1)

Undecided: 7 (10)

(MoE: ±4%)

Sandoval’s lead is down from 14 points to 11, but it’s not like Rory’s made any kind of gain – rather, everyone’s favorite candidate, “none of these,” is the beneficiary of Sandoval’s drop. Still, there ain’t nothin’ wrong with winnin’ ugly, and if none-of-the-above helps Rory win what is still a major uphill battle, I’m sure he won’t be complaining.

NV-03 (4/5-7 in parens):

Dina Titus (D-inc): 42 (44)

Joe Heck (R): 40 (49)

Other: 5 (N/A)

None of these: 4 (N/A)

Undecided: 9 (7)

(MoE: ±5%)

That’s actually a pretty steep drop for Mighty Joe Heck, and there’s no clear explanation for it. Pollster Brad Coker claims Heck got a bounce last time around (which, you’ll note, was all the way back in April) thanks to Titus’s support for the just-passed healthcare reform bill. Color me skeptical. I’ll note that M-D seemed to alter its methodology in the interm, apparently prompting now for “other” and “none.” All of Heck’s shrinkage can be attributed to the appearance of these alternate options. Once again, it looks like Nevada’s quirky none-of-the-above feature might wind up doing Dems a big favor here.

24 thoughts on “NV-Gov/NV-03: Republicans’ Support Falls, but Dems Still Face Tough Races”

  1. The Republicans haven’t exactly offered much, except rhetoric, I imagine many people are starting to see that. If Dina Titus survives this year, she has a great shot at sticking around in cycles to come, Nevada will gain a district after the census and she could benefit from having a reduced sized district, much the same as Shelley Berkeley did.

  2. or call me stupid, but not crazy-stupid cos I am never both, but I’m just not seeing a GOP wave in 2010. I personally expect a net GOP pickup of about 15-20 seats, even though I expect folks like Titus may very well go down

    I do hope that come the 112th congress, we are more aggressive in our whip operation (cos we really suck in messaging) and force test votes to rattle the new GOP reps who take Dem seats. We’ve cleaned up as best as we could in ’06 and ’08 and a lot of the GOPers who could have taken out in 2010 were experienced pols who could vote 100% with their party in Congress and still fool their constituents back home about their record.  

  3. Every Republican, from Sandoval to Heck to whoever is running for Bumfuck County Dog Catcher needs to be flat-out put on the spot and asked if they are supporting Sharon Angle for Senate.

    I think we’re just in the beginning stages of her implosion, and the best part is she doesn’t even see it as an implosion, so the crazy is going to just keep on coming.  I’ll predict that she doesn’t get to 40% of the vote in November, and needs to be hung around the neck of every Nevada Republican.

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